Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Sep 13 11 tweets 12 min read
Wow, even for midterms, this is a new one.

@EchelonInsights poll of #TXGov (813 LV, 8/31-9/7):

@GregAbbott_TX: 48%
@BetoORourke: 46%

Biden underwater at 41-58 in TX (47-52 nationally)…
@EchelonInsights @GregAbbott_TX @BetoORourke Okay, now some other good insights from this.

#AZSen and #AZGov:

@KariLake: 40%
@KatieHobbs: 50%

@bgmasters: 37%
@CaptMarkKelly: 52%

(773 LV, Biden approvals at 40-59)
#GASen and #GAGov:

@ReverendWarnock: 50%
@HerschelWalker: 40%

@staceyabrams: 48%
@BrianKempGA: 47%

(751 LV, Biden approvals: 43-55)
@ReverendWarnock @HerschelWalker @staceyabrams @BrianKempGA Generic ballot:

Democrats: 46%
Republicans: 46%

(1228 LV)
look, don't ask me, okay? I have no idea either except to say I'm very, very skeptical that the generic ballot is tied while O'Rourke is only down two in Texas or while Kelly has a 15 point lead. Those two things cannot both be true at the same time.
Let's keep going, because this is too wild to not.

@JohnFetterman: 57%
@DrOz: 36%

@JoshShapiroPA: 55%
@dougmastriano: 36%

(828 LVs, Biden at 46-54)
And now for the last one: #FLSen and #FLGov:

@marcorubio: 50%
@RepValDemings: 41%

@RonDeSantisFL: 52%
@CharlieCrist: 42%

(815 LV, Biden at 40-58).
@marcorubio @RepValDemings @RonDeSantisFL @CharlieCrist My take to wrap it up: when something flies in the face of all the other evidence, something is probably off, and I would not be uncomfortable saying that I find the results here very, very odd and don't think they mirror the final results or even the current state of the races.
@marcorubio @RepValDemings @RonDeSantisFL @CharlieCrist That said, I don't think they're worth discarding either; Echelon is a reputable pollster. I'd throw them in the average and move on. I'm admittedly trying to figure out *how* these numbers came in to existence, but whatever.
also props to them for releasing all this data -- a lot of people would have spiked the survey instead of publishing the outliers.

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More from @lxeagle17

Sep 13
One thing about a 15 week abortion ban is that it is actually not nearly as popular as this website would have you believe and has been rejected roundly at the ballot box before.

And in this news climate, when voters read "15 week ban", the sticking word they see is "ban".
Colorado had an amendment on this on the ballot in 2020 with a suggested 22 week abortion ban, which is much more in line with the stance of the more moderate wing of the GOP. This was defeated by 18 points, though Biden won by 13.5.
Pre-Dobbs polling sold the GOP on the idea that 15 week bans are pretty popular nationwide because it polled better than absolute bans and was roughly breakeven. Once Roe was overturned, support for 15 week bans absolutely cratered. Hypotheticals are very different from reality.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 12
It's good to expand the bands of uncertainty this cycle and recognize that there *are* systemic errors that have led Rs to be underestimated in places like Ohio the last 4 cycles.

It's also worth noting that Dem leads in PA/AZ are currently way outside those error bands.
So if the election was held today, I'd say what we're looking at, really, is a scenario where Dems hold AZ/PA while we see very close races in WI/NV/GA decide control of the chamber. Rs would need a clean sweep across those 3, assuming NH/CO/NC/FL don't flip, to take the Senate.
Didn't even bother listing Ohio because I don't want to get into *that* discourse here but if Wisconsin is close, Ohio probably stays R by like 5 points, which is a clear Dem overperformance but still a comfortable GOP victory.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 12
This is one of the single worst public policy ideas I have ever seen in STEM education and it should be pushed back on forcefully.

A solid math foundation is critical for doing anything of use with data science/CS. Treating this as a tradeoff in high school is a horrible idea.
A good @LATimes op-ed here that addresses this idea. Math needs a revamp, but not the one that is suggested here, which would be counterproductive. You cannot tell students to study CS without giving them the tools to properly do it in the long-term.…
@latimes I actually have some credentials to be talking about this part of education, because I teach CS/Data Science at a university and am a full time software/ML engineer. A solid math/logic background is absolutely central to being a good engineer. You cannot get by without it.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 11
Today for @SplitTicket_, we have something kind of unique — a detailed look back at the 2004 election, where Hawaii, Arkansas, California, and Missouri were all decided by less than 10 points.

How? @HWLavelleMaps and I break it down.…
One of the simplest and yet most overlooked elements of political victories is that it’s not just how much you win areas by — it’s how little you can lose them by that often decides the victor. Bush lost Hispanics by way less than usual, which boosted his odds everywhere.
If Democrats could figure out how to lose areas like Luzerne by 5 instead of 15 while keeping their current coalition largely intact, they’d be locks this year. This is a very tall ask, because the nature of coalitions involves tradeoff…but Bush kind of managed an analogous feat
Read 6 tweets
Sep 11
There is usually a clear line between xenophobia and protectionism. In one, you criticize another country’s people and are racist towards them. In the other, you try to position your country’s government/economy against another’s.

Ryan is clearly doing the latter!
It’s actually not always that easy to express protectionist rhetoric without veering into xenophobia, but Ryan actually does this quite skillfully. The video avoids mentioning the *people* of China, and Ryan’s other history makes it clear it’s not to do with that.
In general, when the problems with Sinophobia begin on this angle, the rhetoric and stereotypes on race start to be used or at least hinted at, or it’s said by someone with a history of racist remarks and association. This is clearly not the case here.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 8
I don’t think there’s “no good reason” per se, in that the specials have given us scenarios where polls have massively underestimated Dems, but I think the wise thing is to probably consider the chance that nonresponse has not been fixed and might manifest again in a general
Like, we know the Republicans have nominated some awful candidates. We also know nonresponse environments *do* look different in 2022 (or at least, did pre-Dobbs). Primary turnout, generic ballot polls, and specials suggest there has been a real surge towards Dems post-Dobbs…
But the question is not whether there’s been movement — we can clearly say there has been. Nor is the question “are WI/NC/PA/OH in play” — everyone agrees they are. The question is how accurate or reflective of November results the polls are. The only answer is that we don’t know
Read 6 tweets

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