Thread by @DreadBong0

🧵 Thread

Cards on the table time..

We all have thoughts of where things are going and how they will play out.. I am no different

Going to lay out what I have done this year and how I believe the rest of the year and beyond will look like

Enjoy 🍻

1/

I did not catch the top of the market unlike everyone else on CT

Foolishly.. I believed there was a second leg to the bull run, with the end resulting in a $BTC blow off top

When it was clear this wrong.. I created a new plan to survive the upcoming bear market

2/

Once we lost the 3d 200ma, which has been a good indication of bull or bear environments..

I scaled out of all my trading and shorter term investing positions

Leaving only my multi-year long term positions, which I don't touch under any circumstances.. I only add to them

3/

Selling allowed me to build a nice bag of stables to utilize lower

First reaction target was bottom of the multi year channel on #bitcoin.. This was at $36k

I wanted to see if this would hold..

It did not.. this was a clear indication to me that market structure was broken

4/

Sell off was severe.. Bear market had clearly arrived

Next target for me was the 200 wma.. around $23k

First we had to monitor whether $BTC would hold macro low at $30k

Once again.. it did not

Another large sell off pushed $BTC below the 200 wma to its current macro low

5/

Multiple reasons caused this..

✅ Market structure broken
✅ $LUNA collapse
✅ Forced liquidations of #3AC, $CEL etc
✅ Worsening macro conditions
✅ War in Ukraine
✅ Europe/Russia energy conflict
✅ Strengthening Dollar
✅ Soaring Oil

Macro was leading #crypto

6/

Due to severity of the sell off.. I held off jumping back in

I began researching macro heavily.. conditions were worsening & talks of QT/Rate hikes didn't give me confidence

So I watched to see how $BTC would perform under 200wma

Something its never had to endure before

7/

$BTC held the previous cycle top.. which was a great sign

$ETH went deeper but comfortably regained previous top & 200wma due to Merge narrative

Equities were also recovering as they attempted to price in future rate hikes and call the Feds bluff on their hawkish stance

8/

I began pushing a small amount of stables back into short term trading positions

Also taking advantage of lower prices to add to long term bags

This was around $20k

Didn't catch the bottom at $17k unlike everyone else on CT 😏

Most positions were sold back at 200wma

9/

Only positions I began to accumulate throughout this whole ordeal was $TAO

I'd been researching a lot & built a strong position the more FOMO I felt

Decent amount of those stables went into accumulating $TAO

A project I felt comfortable investing in at any price this low

10/

Which leads us to today..

✅ I hold my long term bags & added some
✅ Next to no trading/short term positions
✅ Built a large position in $TAO

Now its a matter of figuring out when to deploy those stables and what to look out for..

11/

As simple as I can show it on a single $BTC chart

Monthly.. If we close below previous cycle top (Red line) AND trend that's been in place since 2015 (Green line) then I am looking lower

- Below 200wma
- Below Previous cycle top
- Below Trend

I would be looking at $14k ✅

12/

$14k signals the highest $BTC monthly close of the previous cycle in 2017

Anything around or below.. I would began heavily deploying

$11.7k is another important level in #bitcoin history

This range between $14k and $11.7k is a must buy for me personally ✅

13/

I would begin to push stables heavily into projects I want to own throughout the next bull cycle..

Projects like

$QNT
$AZERO
$TAO
$MNW
$MC
$NEAR
$UOS
$CHEQ
$NOIA etc, etc

Prices of these projects at $14k #Bitcoin would, imo.. offer a huge opportunity that I couldn't miss

14/

But... to get there $BTC would need to break down..

I believe this is where macro comes back into play

Fed funds rate projecting terminal rate of 4.25%.. They are only at 2.5%

I don't believe the markets have priced this in

15/

CPI is still hot and coming in higher than expected at 8.3%.. as is evident in yesterdays brutal market sell off

Market priced in a 75% hike at next FOMC.. Now the probability of a 100% is on the table and looking more likely

Even November could be looking at 75bps hike

16/

I personally believe we see another big leg down across markets

Obviously speculation.. but S&P at 3,400, with a brief stint below 200wma would not surprise me.. before a sharp reclaim

Nasdaq with a similar set up around 10,000

17/

Pause from Fed around 4% looks likely.. Would signal relief in the markets

Plus.. inflation may have already peaked, which could lead to some risks of deflation from the Fed pushing too hard, too fast

✅ Fed pauses at 4%
✅ Last leg down
✅ Inflation peaked
✅ Bottom

18/

I am personally looking at December 22 / January 23 for a market bottom and the above to play out

Macro pulling $BTC down further to a price target of $14k/$11.7k.. which $ETH and alts to follow suit

I would then begin deploying stables heavily to re-enter for next cycle👍

19/

Of course.. I can be dead wrong on all this

Markets & $BTC / $ETH could well have bottomed now and this could all not play out

I also have a plan in case this happens but that's a story for another day

20/

Hope you enjoyed this brain dump and how I'm viewing things

Show the thread some love if you found value from it 👍

https://twitter.com/DreadBong0/status/1570062722557161479?s=20&t=vLrj3lM8j_imBeCUH799kw

Gotta go.. Wife's made fajitas 🔥

$BTC $ETH $SPX $QQQ $NQ $SPY $VIX $QNT $AZERO $TAO $MNW $MC $NEAR $UOS $CHEQ $NOIA

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