This is a fine piece from @IAPonomarenko about the tremendous feat of arms achieved by #Ukraine over the past couple of weeks. However, there is still a way to go in this war. Some thoughts on a Saturday morning as I depart Warsaw. 1/16
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1570163573015584770
2/ First, the momentum generated by the Kharkiv offensive is continuing to bear fruit in the north east and east of #Ukraine. The Ukrainians, having surprised the Russians, generated shock in both the soldiers and the command chain of the Russian Army.
3/ As good military leaders know, it is during this period of ‘shock’ where the most gains can be made in territory, and in destroying or capturing the enemy. The Ukrainians, while weary now, have fully appreciated this and are exploiting Russian disarray for as long as it lasts.
4/ And, as magnificent as this offensive has been, all offensives eventually run out of steam. This can be because the enemy is able to re-form a coherent defence, exhaustion of friendly troops or because further exploitation is not worth the costs in people and material.
5/ We should expect the Ukrainian forces in this Kharkiv offensive to enter a period of consolidation at some point in the coming days or weeks. But the damage they have done to the Russian Army, and its invasion strategy, is significant.
6/ The Russian position in the east is in peril. Continued Ukrainian advances are placing logistic supply routes back to Russia at risk, while also forcing a reorientation of the Russian posture in the Luhansk oblast.
7/ But the entire Russian conquest of the Donbas is now in peril. Further Russian advances are unlikely, given their higher priority of realigning their forces to protect against the Ukrainian advances from the north.
8/ In the south, the Ukrainians are making steady progress. Many Russians are trapped west of the Dnipro. And those on the eastern side need to balance enhancing their defences there, providing fire support to their forces west of the river, & potentially redeploying to the east.
9/ And, of course, the Russians need to think about enhancing their defences in Crimea. It is in play. The Ukrainian President has said so publicly. And it is Ukrainian territory.
10/ Finally, this has shredded any remaining reputation the Russian Army had as an effective fighting force. By almost any measure of tactical, operational or strategic effectiveness, the Russian Army has either failed or performed extraordinarily poorly.
11/ In the strategic information space, the Russians just keep looking worse & worse. They are failures on the battlefield, & the Izium mass graves again show that Russian Army as a brutal, murderous gang that prefers to attack innocent civilians than fight real soldiers.
12/ No wonder Putin looked like a dejected subordinate at his recent meeting with Indian and Chinese leaders. Even they are embarrassed to be seen with him in public.
13/ Despite this, the Ukrainians still need military and economic assistance from the West. While rightfully proud of their military, and confident in ultimate victory over Russia, they need our assistance.
14/ Key areas of assistance include air and missile defences to ‘close the sky’; more tanks and armoured vehicles (in battalion sets, not in small numbers); long range fires; and soldier personal equipment.
15/ In conclusion, we have witnessed a superb demonstration of modern military operations in the past two weeks. The Ukrainians, as I have asserted before, are the masters of modern warfare. But we need to give them the tools to get the job done, and defeat the Russians. End
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