Understanding con note conversion overhang is key to understanding the picture. Also optimization of a start up isn't an overnight affair, 6 months for mitigation of labour and machine maintenance. $AHQ
$50m buys 4 potential mines, Over 2bn NPV and 1bn/t resource.
Smart money uses the con note selling as the mechanism to accummulate cheaply.
Stupid money exits post -80% decline
Smart money reviews the thesis and assesses the turnaround ability and future cashflow post optimization
2023 CF +A$50-100m Vs 50m cap
Plenty of buyers at 11c.
One must ask who is accummulating?
Why is an Indonesian on Twitter indicating it's a sell, #indonesian acquirer in the wings? #coal is huge in Indonesia, this would be a great bolt on asset.
The $50m basket of assets would be worth $500m for some when the CF is above $100m.
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It's starting to tick the boxes
A) negative EV
B) free pounds in the ground
C) low capex ramp up
D) nice grade
E) 10x plus NPV upside
F) hated by the market
G) optimization could kick in 3-6 months time
H) cycle bottoming incoming over 4-9 months
I) low dilution risk Vs M&A
Please note any new bottoming theme over the next 3 to 9 months, one should have 5 candidates to mitigate stock specific risk.
If our #gold watchlist falls by 50% from here as the bottoming process kicks in, the average return will likely be 10-15x over the following 3-5 years.
Did you know where the potentially largest #uranium mines are in the world? Do you know the company that has the most upside in Sweden reinstating uranium mining? $AEE
This scoping study level project has a sub $20/lb AISC given the huge credits from Nickel, Molybdenum and V.
#uranium return run down from recent lows assuming #sput can drive the next up leg by a reasonable premium for 1 to 3 months: sector returns +50- 75%
Best in class Explorers <25m caps =+150-250%
Best in class Project Developers <125m cap = +100-175%
Pure ETFs +50-75%
Note new entrants into the #uranium ETFs for Sept and April for extra torque, watch for caps above US$50m not in the ETFs yet.
Combined ETF new entry often equates to 5-7% of issued shares for a nano #uranium stock this can be transformational given the short rebalancing timeframes.
Often, in bull market conditions the 2 month returns prior to entry can be 50-100% on triple ETF entry.
What will $AHQ bottoming be 4Q 2022 as it concludes it's financing to optimize production?
Emotional response: negative short term outcome breeds further negativity....we generally look for these situations to act counter to the prevailing sentiment (provides great entry points).
Note at 50c prior to the announcement of the start up issues (slow economies of scale Vs fixed selling prices, insufficient capital to optimize equipment, supply chain bottlenecks) many thought this was going to perform. Now post the 85% discount many have the opposite view.
For our followers, if you haven't yet seen how easy it is to make returns in the market (over the medium term), then it's very simple, at times of "apocalyptically bearish" conditions it's generally an entry point....whereas at times of "excess FOMO" its generally an exit point.
Where are we now? No man's land, which means most entry points are average, not compelling Vs June, with the depths of recession still an unknown, we are leaning on taking capital off the table, hence adding to dry powder.
Controlling your own greed and fear are the tools to make the right decisions.
$AHQ 3x returns over 12 months from recent lows, 6x assuming lower stupid dilution. The key is to evaluation opportunities in the eye of the storm....4 potential mines with combined NPV of $2bn and 1bn/t of resource, low capex start ups.