Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Sep 20 3 tweets 2 min read
#goldstocks next asymmetric theme incoming 1H 2023 as the USD peaks and markets bottom, holding time 36-48 months.
Still likely plenty of downside to rock bottom, but many of the 5 baggers with become 10 baggers in the final wash out, scale in slowly, avoid potentially high diluters.
We like high IRR projects with low capex start ups trading below cash backing is an added bonus.
Classic signs of #goldstock value and 5-10x returns:

A) funded road to production and trading on less than 0.3x Cashflow 3 years out (near zero dilution potential)

B) healthy in the ground gold resource with good grade, trading on negative EV (cash exceeds cap), Cap/oz < $5

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More from @BULLReturns

Sep 18
Understanding con note conversion overhang is key to understanding the picture. Also optimization of a start up isn't an overnight affair, 6 months for mitigation of labour and machine maintenance. $AHQ

$50m buys 4 potential mines, Over 2bn NPV and 1bn/t resource.
It's the sitting that matters in turnarounds, not exiting post the horse bolting -80%.....

This has potential as an M&A target.

Smart money uses the con note selling as the mechanism to accummulate cheaply.

Stupid money exits post -80% decline

Smart money reviews the thesis and assesses the turnaround ability and future cashflow post optimization

2023 CF +A$50-100m Vs 50m cap

Plenty of buyers at 11c.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17
$GMTN heading towards negative EV

1m oz resource at high grade with positive drilling results

65koz low capex production ramp up, NPV 10x cap and expanding

Optimization issues on start up

Accummulation zone incoming 8-18c, below <12c 10x return potential

It's starting to tick the boxes
A) negative EV
B) free pounds in the ground
C) low capex ramp up
D) nice grade
E) 10x plus NPV upside
F) hated by the market
G) optimization could kick in 3-6 months time
H) cycle bottoming incoming over 4-9 months
I) low dilution risk Vs M&A
Please note any new bottoming theme over the next 3 to 9 months, one should have 5 candidates to mitigate stock specific risk.

If our #gold watchlist falls by 50% from here as the bottoming process kicks in, the average return will likely be 10-15x over the following 3-5 years.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 15
Did you know where the potentially largest #uranium mines are in the world? Do you know the company that has the most upside in Sweden reinstating uranium mining? $AEE

This scoping study level project has a sub $20/lb AISC given the huge credits from Nickel, Molybdenum and V. Image
Reality check:

Low grade #uranium mines with massive secondary credits = low AISC outcomes

The option value of the Swedish assets to be built into $AEE's stockprice for $5-8 of NPV is 10-20c over the next 1-5 months.
You have been warned $AEE

$URNM entry coupled with #uranium Mining ban removal = satisfactory result
Read 6 tweets
Aug 25
#uranium return run down from recent lows assuming #sput can drive the next up leg by a reasonable premium for 1 to 3 months: sector returns +50- 75%

Best in class Explorers <25m caps =+150-250%

Best in class Project Developers <125m cap = +100-175%

Pure ETFs +50-75%
Note new entrants into the #uranium ETFs for Sept and April for extra torque, watch for caps above US$50m not in the ETFs yet.
Combined ETF new entry often equates to 5-7% of issued shares for a nano #uranium stock this can be transformational given the short rebalancing timeframes.

Often, in bull market conditions the 2 month returns prior to entry can be 50-100% on triple ETF entry.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 23
What will $AHQ bottoming be 4Q 2022 as it concludes it's financing to optimize production?
Emotional response: negative short term outcome breeds further negativity....we generally look for these situations to act counter to the prevailing sentiment (provides great entry points).
Note at 50c prior to the announcement of the start up issues (slow economies of scale Vs fixed selling prices, insufficient capital to optimize equipment, supply chain bottlenecks) many thought this was going to perform. Now post the 85% discount many have the opposite view.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 17
For our followers, if you haven't yet seen how easy it is to make returns in the market (over the medium term), then it's very simple, at times of "apocalyptically bearish" conditions it's generally an entry point....whereas at times of "excess FOMO" its generally an exit point.
Where are we now? No man's land, which means most entry points are average, not compelling Vs June, with the depths of recession still an unknown, we are leaning on taking capital off the table, hence adding to dry powder.
Controlling your own greed and fear are the tools to make the right decisions.

Underpaying, early cycle leads to high returns

Overpaying, late cycle leads to losses

Awaiting for clarification leads to mediocrity

Early cycle vision leads to superior results

Read 5 tweets

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