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Sep 21 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
#Armenia_Russia: Armenia joins Turkey and Vietnam that recently stopped accepting Russian “Mir” international payment cards. This will affect the comfort of thousands of Russians who flocked to Armenia after Russia started the aggression against Ukraine,⤵️
followed by heavy Western sanctions. Armenia's decision coincides with Pelosi's visit and the decline in the geopolitical relevance of Russia and the CSTO. The cancellation of the use of Mir care does not mean that Armenia joins the sanctions regime against Russia.👇⤵️
However, this is a strong political signal coming to Moscow from Yerevan, where protests for leaving the CSTO took place a few days ago. It appears that the Armenian leadership is building diplomacy to lay the groundwork for US assistance and presence in the region.⤵️
If Russia's geopolitical status quo in the region is shaky and the CSTO is a weak security guarantor, then it is only natural that Armenia seek international partners to fill the gap. Otherwise, it will be left alone against a militaristic Azerbaijan,⤵️
which has the strategic support of Turkey. Russia has not left the region: 1) it has a military base in Armenia and peacekeepers in Karabakh. But the story about the cancellation of Mir cards in Armenia represents a shift towards future attempts by Pashinyan⤵️
to diversify the security guarantors that guarantee Armenia's national security. Read more here👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 22
#Armenia: The CSTO's weak response to the Azeri’s attacks is fueling protests among Armenians who want their country to leave the Russian-controlled military bloc. Armenia activated CSTO's collective defense clause (Art. 4), but the organization and member states refused to⤵️
offer military assistance (including Kazakhstan, which is currently praised for quietly disassociating itself from Russia). The CSTO agreed to conduct an on-the-ground assessment after the attacks by Azeri forces deep in the Armenian territories⤵️
Attention: we are not talking about Karabakh, where both Armenians and Azeri appreciated the Russian peacekeepers. We cannot rule out that after the protests against CSTO membership, dissatisfaction with the presence of the Russian military base may also be seriously questioned.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 22
#Belarus: Lukashenko thinks first and foremost about the well-being of his (autocratic) regime. Comforting Russia is secondary. It has been reported for some time that Russians are traveling to partially sanctioned Belarus to buy whatever is no longer available in⤵️
Russia (as a result of self-sanctioning by Western companies and trade sanctions by the EU). Today Belarus announced a 6-month temporary ban on the re-export to other Eurasian Union countries of technological goods not manufactured in Belarus or Russia. It includes⤵️
250 types of industrial goods, from smartphones to nuclear reactors. Apparently, Belarus is trying to limit the re-export of Western technology goods. Perhaps Lukashenko fears the secondary sanctions or trade related sanctions against Belarus for goods restricted to Russia.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 21
#EU_China: Borrell tried to persuade his Chinese counterpart to put pressure on the Russians to stop the war against Ukraine. It is for the first time that EU officials speak of the "financial crisis" alongside the food and energy crises. Perhaps the EU is facing money issues, ⤵️
which are related to rising energy costs (subsidies to businesses & consumers), as well as the help needed to care for Ukrainian refugees (millions are still in the EU) & from Ukraine (which is in great need of financial support for the economy, the public budget and the army).⤵️ Image
But China is not willing to leave Russia alone, when in reality it needs it as a partner to balance against the West. Until the Communist Party congress in October, Xi will not make any radical moves. The current "neutrality" may help get Xi re-elected for a third term.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 21
#Russia: The partial mobilization launched by Putin is opening a "Pandora's box". The stability of the regime is at stake, not just the additional aggression against Ukraine. The anti-war youth protests are the first real domestic challenge to the Putin regime. THREAD: ⤵️
1) Putin wants at least 300,000 Russian reservists to be identified and sent when necessary to the battlefield in Ukraine. But this is not an easy task because Russian men are terrified at the prospect of dying in Putin's war. Some hide hide in refrigerators.⤵️
2) Young people are the most vulnerable. They have very little training and are well informed about more than 50k dead Russian soldiers (not 6k as Defense Minister Shoigu has stated). The nationwide protests will start today, but it’s unclear who is going to coordinate it.⤵️
Read 39 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 20
#Russia: Putin was shamed by Erdogan, Jinping and Modi (the way it was done varies, but the outcome is the same). He told everyone that he wants to “end it” (поставить конец). That means exactly what Putin signaled today: another offensive and that, in his opinion, should⤵️
be the decisive one to force Ukraine to capitulate. What the West is saying: 1) Borrell proudly claims that the EU is solving crises around the world, but Ukraine is still on top. A final decision on the EU Military Assistance Mission in Ukraine has not yet been taken (too ⤵️
slow). 2) Macron is again with his hands on the phone looking to talk to Putin on the phone. It’s unclear whether Macron or Scholz realized that "telephone diplomacy-deterrence" doesn't work on Russia and that it has never efficiently prevented Putin from committing aggression.⤵️
Read 18 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 20
#Ukraine: Pseudo-referendums on independence are scheduled on “DNR” and “LNR” in the last week of September (if putting down the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive doesn't ruin the plans). Two main reasons I believe they still want to do that:⤵️
1) to prevent further demoralization in light of the Ukrainian de-occupation campaign; 2) change the reality on the ground by annexing occupied Donbass, which could allow finding recruits/soldiers more easily, as they will fight for the “Russian lands”/Ukrainian occupied regions.
interfax.ru/world/863073
Read 4 tweets

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