In most #commodity markets supply is stimulated materially over 9-18 months at 65% plus cash margins.
For #uranium we see this to be no different, using sub $35/lb cash costs for compelling projects, over $100/Ib will stimulate a massive wave of fundable projects within 24m.
Never forget price determines supply, at $100/lb, over 40mlb will come online 2024-2027 with sub $35 cash costs. #uranium
$AEE Tiris up to 5mlbs at sub $30 and the Swedish assets secondary credits could be 5-8mlb (assuming mining law changes with the new Govt).
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If you want to get your up and down #uranium cycle legs correct, this is probably more important than anyone else currently....as it dictates the market cycle.
What #uranium specialists lack knowledge on, that generalists are focused on.....
Understanding con note conversion overhang is key to understanding the picture. Also optimization of a start up isn't an overnight affair, 6 months for mitigation of labour and machine maintenance. $AHQ
$50m buys 4 potential mines, Over 2bn NPV and 1bn/t resource.
It's starting to tick the boxes
A) negative EV
B) free pounds in the ground
C) low capex ramp up
D) nice grade
E) 10x plus NPV upside
F) hated by the market
G) optimization could kick in 3-6 months time
H) cycle bottoming incoming over 4-9 months
I) low dilution risk Vs M&A
Please note any new bottoming theme over the next 3 to 9 months, one should have 5 candidates to mitigate stock specific risk.
If our #gold watchlist falls by 50% from here as the bottoming process kicks in, the average return will likely be 10-15x over the following 3-5 years.
Did you know where the potentially largest #uranium mines are in the world? Do you know the company that has the most upside in Sweden reinstating uranium mining? $AEE
This scoping study level project has a sub $20/lb AISC given the huge credits from Nickel, Molybdenum and V.
#uranium return run down from recent lows assuming #sput can drive the next up leg by a reasonable premium for 1 to 3 months: sector returns +50- 75%
Best in class Explorers <25m caps =+150-250%
Best in class Project Developers <125m cap = +100-175%
Pure ETFs +50-75%
Note new entrants into the #uranium ETFs for Sept and April for extra torque, watch for caps above US$50m not in the ETFs yet.
Combined ETF new entry often equates to 5-7% of issued shares for a nano #uranium stock this can be transformational given the short rebalancing timeframes.
Often, in bull market conditions the 2 month returns prior to entry can be 50-100% on triple ETF entry.