Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #commodity

Most recents (24)

Oct #Inflation released by Stats SA is at 5.0%, unchanged from Sep. #Food & #non-alcoholic beverages; #housing, #utilities; #transport; and #miscellaneous goods & services were the major drivers. Global inflation going up. Inflation no longer transitory, maybe persistent (1/N)
#Core inflation at 3.2%, still very low. #Goods inflation at 7.1%, with #none-durable goods at 8.6%! Services inflation is at 3.0%. #administrered prices (taxes!) rising by a whooping 11.2% (2/N)
CPI inflation excluding administered prices is at 3.8%, way below the #SARB @SAReserveBank mid-point of 4.5%. So, if the SARB hikes tomorrow, which i do not think it should and it will, its fighting inflation caused by the government (3/N)
Read 5 tweets
📈Hedge de #commodities usando posições sintéticas

Posições sintéticas de proteção, combinam futuros e opções, replicando uma operação em futuros ou opções. Assim, se alguém compra uma CALL e vende uma PUT, estará fazendo uma posição similar a uma compra de contrato futuro...
(muito usado quando você está exposto em um futuros e o contrato trava no limite diário; está posição limita sua perda). Diz-se então, que é uma operação sintética comprada em futuros
Posições sintéticas podem, também, ser tomadas como arbitragem, no intuito de tirar proveito de eventual distorção no mercado de futuros em relação ao mercado de opções, ou vice-versa. A compreensão do funcionamento das posições sintéticas é importante para o trader e aumenta o
Read 9 tweets
#soja caindo 4-2 cents/bu em Chicago; cenários hipotéticos para a #commodity

1. Fretes continuam o rally, deteriorando à reposição nos portos chineses e pressionando as margens do crush; crise energética limita a demanda e #China reduz as compras; menor programa 🇺🇸 de
#exportacao e maior oferta no 1° sem, conflitando com a soja 🇧🇷; pouco volume de fixação em Chicago derrubam as cotações e maior oferta em origens diferentes pressionam os prêmios e, devido ao frete caro, até a valores negativos…
Continuidade de alta nos juros no Brasil, tornando atrativo o carry trade, reduzido a cotação do dólar; conclusão: saca de soja abaixo de R$ 135,00…
Read 7 tweets
. @michael_saylor on unregistered securities:

"It is a security. You are violating securities law, the law is black and white. The only people who think it's not a security are the people who don't know the law."
"If you look at everybody in the #crypto space outside of #bitcoin I think most of them have never taken a company public, they don't have general counsels, they don't understand securities laws at it stands."
"I can't go... It would be inappropriate, unethical and illegal for me to go and give a million shares of $MSTR to a quarterback, and then have him stand up and say " $MSTR Coin is the future" on Twitter. The whole point of securities laws is I have to disclose that via an 8-K."
Read 19 tweets
1/9 A thread of one potential negative wind for #China #growth next few months: manufacturing firms forced to halt production under energy/environmental constraints 能耗双控. Firms in #Jiangsu asked to stop production. Malls asked to delay opening for 1/2 hour to conserve energy.
2/9 Background: 2060 carbon neutrality goal, National Development and Reform Comm.(#NDRC) sets a staged road map2025/30/35. Each province, two annual hard targets need to meet: total energy usage growth and GDP per unit energy used. (in Chinese) in-en.com/article/html/e…
3/9 AUG 7th, #NDRC graded each province in YTD red/yellow/green. Economically important provinces like #Guangdong, #Jiangsu #Fujian red for both targets. #ZheJiang yellow for both.
gov.cn/zhengce/zhengc…
Read 11 tweets
#Inflation & #Commodity #Prices

2 articles '09 & '21.
4 Charts US CPI, PPI

1. financialexpress.com/archive/FE-Edi…
2. reuters.com/article/us-met…

Why did '09 not sustain? Why do we think that 2020/21 will sustain?

@SahilKapoor @vijaybhambwani @Macro_Maniac_ @GoodGiffen @Determinedinvst ImageImageImageImage
Data Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, USA and IMF's Commodity Price Portal
An interesting side story

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 7 tweets
In the #LongFoodMovement report, we're reminded that the world’s 30 million artisanal #fishers and workers provide nearly half of the #fish we eat (@IPBES, 2019).

But with #climatechange & island/ocean grabbing, small-scale fishers & their communities are in peril.

🧵Thread 👇🏾
Island/#ocean grabbing is likely to intensify as countries seek to solidify their influence, their #food supply chains, & their global sourcing and distribution networks. For example, in the #RedSea region, conflicts over fish & other marine resources threaten rich #biodiversity.
Meanwhile, in the South China Sea, said to
have some of the highest marine #biodiversity on earth, #China has been building airstrips, ports & other facilities on disputed islands & reefs, w/ the apparent aim of establishing military bases (cf. Ives,
2016).
Read 11 tweets
Let’s talk about the economy.
You agree: “A logical next step.”
Would you mind if I’m blunt?
“Fire away.”
It’s shit.
“The economy?”
Yes.
“Well, that is blunt.”

1/52
#economy
#society
#talk
You ponder for a moment, then ask, “Is this another of your enemies?”
The economy?
“Yes.”
An enemy to humanity and the biological world?
“Yes.”
I hope, by the time this thread is complete, you’ll tell me.

2/52
#society
We’re talking about the supply-and-demand, producer/consumer, deregulated/lightly-touched, invisibly-handed, limited-resource-distributing, market-based economy that prevails across much of the world.

“And it’s all entirely shit?”
Well, perhaps I need to qualify that.

3/52
Read 54 tweets
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look

1/x

#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

2/x
Not that they're alone in their folly, of course. The #ECB is outodoing them handsomely, while the #bankofengland is breaking records stretching back to its founding, 327 years ago.
#centralbanks
3/x
Read 10 tweets
#threadseries

Nigerian Stock Market

The #equities market presents attractive opportunities for #investors in form of capital appreciation and dividend return given the low yield environment in the fixed income space.
#Nigerian stocks are currently undervalued and present an opportunity for growth in the short to medium term.
The current #ROI in the #equities market is positive with a YTD return at over 47.5% compared to the #inflation rate at 14.9%.
We believe #stocks in the #financial services (mostly #banks), ICT, and the #industrial sectors present strong prospects for growth given their resilience to the #economic recession.
Read 11 tweets
What are the implications of excess global financial market volatility on economic growth? Are there threshold effects in the relationship between growth & excess global volatility for individual countries? How should we model the nonlinear effects in a multi-country setting? 1/n
We answer these questions in recent work with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife @TrinCollCam, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey @cepr_org @nberpubs: ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2… #TGVAR 2/n
The #Covid19 #pandemic has been a shock like no other, initiating simultaneous demand and supply disruptions. In addition, it led to a sharp tightening in global #financial market conditions during the first quarter of 2020. 3/n Image
Read 23 tweets
In a recent paper, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey, we develop a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (#TGVAR) to quantify the #macroeconomic effects of #Covid19: econ.cam.ac.uk/research/cwpe-… 1/n Image
Key challenges with the empirical #economic analysis of #Covid19 include the following: how to identify the shock, how to account for its non-linear effects, & how to quantify its effects while accounting for spillovers, common global factors, network effects and uncertainty. 2/n
We contribute to the literature by addressing these issues in a coherent multi-country framework. We offer an identification strategy for the #Covid19 shock considering that a synthetic control method cannot be applied in the context of a global #pandemic. 3/n
Read 23 tweets
#WWF storytelling as they #greenwash corporate #plunder & bear responsibility for the displacement, torture & murder of #Indigenous peoples:

"Building a sustainable & equitable future. For nature. For you."

Reality: "The financialization of #nature" Image
To obtain the required social license, the ruling class devised a strategy. A corporate campaign that would harness the momentum of the youth - to achieve the ruling class objectives & desired goals. #NewDealForNature

#FridaysForFuture
#NewPower
#Uganda ImageImageImageImage
An apt reminder for the aforementioned tweet - that TIME is wholly owned by Salesforce founder/CEO Marc Benioff - #WEF Board of Trustees & Chair, WEF Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

#VoiceForThePlanet & #NewDealForNature - sister campaigns of #WEF, #WWF, #UN, #4IR ImageImageImage
Read 20 tweets
The sheer magnitude of the moves in many #economic #data points in recent months has overshadowed the nuances of those reports. For instance, the June @ism non-manufacturing index came in at 57.1 yesterday, a record 11.7-point gain and 7.1 points greater than expectations. Image
And when we look at the #ISM survey report of #commodity prices and what’s in short supply, there are many items that aren’t surprising: cleaning products, disinfectants and hand sanitizer are all up in #price and in short #supply.
Much more interesting, however, is the fact that #labor for #construction and subcontractors is back to being cited as in short #supply
Read 5 tweets
Reliance Jio is in "Technology Commodity Market". Design ripoff by JioMeet & JioChat affirms this underlying message in the market. Technology as a commodity is different from (1)(#JioMeet #JioChat #commodity #Commodities #RelianceJio #Jio #UX #Design #Market) ImageImage
Software as a commodity. White-label apps, framework & platform were in the market since a long time that are the example of Software as a commodity. Commodity trading is one of the oldest practice. Traditional companies environment are well equipped with (2)(#trading)
commodity legalities, so as India Trade & Legal Ecosystem. Reliance Jio have turn the table in their favor from bureaucracy, regulatory & legal perspective. It could also be possible that (3)(#trade #legal #bureaucracy #regulatory)
Read 32 tweets
All categories of #mutualfunds (including ETFs) would be covered under #stampduty charges for units issued in demat & non-demat form. It will cover equity, derivatives & currency trades. Stamp Duty = Direct Tax levied by the govt. u/s 3 of Indian Stamp Act, 1899. @AmarUjalaNews
#StampDuty charges:

Equity (delivery) - 0.015% or ₹1,500 per crs on buy-side

#Equity (intra-day) - 0.003% or ₹300 per crs

#Futures (equity & #commodity) - 0.002% or ₹200 per crs

#Options (equity & commodity) - 0.003% or ₹300 per crs

#Currency - 0.001% or ₹10 per crs
- The #stampduty will also be applicable on #AlternativeInvestmentFunds (AIFs)

- Impact is more on the short term #investments by the #investors

- No stamp duty on #redemption of #mutualfund units.

- Impact at #portfolio level too i.e when fund manager executes transaction.
Read 7 tweets
The 2nd Special Rapporteur on the #RighttoFood, Olivier de Schutter, delivered his final report to the Human Rights Council of the UN General Assembly on 24 Jan 2014. It was titled "The transformative potential of the right to food"
De Schutter's 6-year mandate (2008-2014) coincided with the Global Food Crisis of 2007 - that preceded the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. He visited 13 countries, prepared 10 reports on thematic issues and 2 special reports on the Global Food Crisis - srfood.org
He said:"The #righttofood is the right of every individual, alone or in community w others, to have physical & economic access at all times to sufficient, adequate & culturally acceptable food that is produced & consumed sustainably, preserving access 2 food 4 future generations"
Read 17 tweets
Some takeaways on the global economy, regional & national economies and commodities from the @IMFNews World Economic Outlook: April 2020: imf.org/en/Publication… #GlobalTrends #Macro (1/5) ImageImageImage
2/5 Overview of key economic factors in alternative scenarios in lieu of the #COVID19 crisis...#GlobalTrends #Macro Image
3/5 A look at #Commodity prices in lieu of the #COVID19 crisis...seems we still want good #coffee and #China has been loading up on cheap #oil.. Image
Read 5 tweets
Good morning! 😀Fed is all in (again!!) - and this time there is a great confidence among traders (again!!) that Fed can has stopped deflation and supplied enough liquidity to the system. But is that really the case? Stay tuned for my perspectives #HZupdates
Let me start an nontraditional way - with a zoom in. This is #SP500 1 hour chart. I look for corrections and main directional moves. This is a correctional move - and it may have finalized! So - the main wave will soon set in again. Now - lets zoom out #HZupdates
The zoom in was of wave 4. It is correctional in nature - and will hence be 100% (or way more) surpassed. Notice - it managed to retrace to 50% Fib. I think we are really close to the next strong decline. EW gives us ~1800 for bottom of wave A = the illiquid deflationary period
Read 17 tweets
Insightful overview on the potential economic impacts of #COVIDー19 from @ConstanceHunter & team...Some takeaways...(1/8) #GlobalTrends #Macro #Risks Image
2/8 The inverse relationship between flattening the caseload curve and the economic cost...#COVIDー19 #Macro #Risks Image
3/8 Real exposure is with low income groups, Gig-workers and hospitality sector..lack of safety net and #healthcare leads to lack of testing and ability to self quarantine..#US #Risks #Inequality ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Good morning! Let's have an update on markets as it has now become very clear, that we are to see the #Deflation unfolding, which I have mentioned here for a long time. Why hasn't it really hurt yet - and what to expect? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I have shown my #Oil chart for a long time with Ending Diagonal. Since talks of oil >100USD - and during spikes in oil due to attacks in ME. All noise!! Structures drive price - and we are en route towards <20USD - perhaps as low as ~10USD for Oil. #Deflation unfolding!
I have shown #Deflation in #CRB chart. Broken lower trendline and now heading towards much lower levels to be reached this year! It will be a SECULAR BOTTOM - hence this is from where #STAGLFLATION will develop, as economy continues to plummet and prices begin to rise #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
#Deflation phase has started. Stocks will plummet in 5 waves down to ~1800 in #SP500. Wave 2 and 4 will be corrections. We have break of 200SMA and trendline from early 2019. I think we see a backtest of these (yellow area?). But - in general trend is down - and fast!
#USD #DXY is about to set off on a major move higher. The current correction is a wave 2 (blue) and hence next wave will take us to min. 103 - but more likely 106-107 in an impulsive move. Do not stand in front of the USD train coming months!
#EURUSD kissing 50SMA and pot. also 200SMA "Goodbye" - before turning down hard. Next wave will take down to - and likely below bottom from early 2017 - only for a short consolidation before EUR crash continues. LT-target remains ~0.85
Read 14 tweets
In January, core #CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) came in at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year. Over the year’s first half we expect Core #PCE to draw closer to 2%.
Yet, while we foresee continued firmness in #inflation, we’re skeptical it will be sustained and it won’t resemble demand-driven inflation, but rather it will be a function of favorable base-effects, #currency moves and a recovery in #commodity prices in the year’s back half.
From the standpoint of #monetary policy, we think the @federalreserve is on target with its policy stance today, and it will be closely watching the developments in inflation, in labor markets and critically in #financialconditions.
Read 4 tweets
@McKinsey_MGI has put out an interesting report in their 'Future of #Asia' series titled; 'Corporate Asia: A capital paradox.' Here are a few take aways..(1/8) 43% of the world's largest firms by revenue are based in Asia...#GlobalTrends Image
2/8 However 'Economic profitability has declined around the world over the past decade' (Not something that is reflecting in stock market indexes), with #Asia accounting for about half of the decline...#GlobalTrends #Macro #Risk Side note: It's good have a tech/IP focused econ... Image
3/8 A rough ROIC - "..implying that, u would have needed $0.80 of invested capital to earn $1 of rev. 10 years ago. Today, u need almost $1.10 of invested cap. 2 earn that $1 of revenue."...Good thing corp sector has not levered up big time...#GlobalTrends #Macro #Risks Image
Read 8 tweets

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