Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #commodity

Most recents (24)

Thought of the day: Price determines our likability of a company, a 95% fall, often changes our view to positive, assuming the fundamentals are considerable, we particularly like <1x cashflow valuations within the next 3 years.
When we accummulated our $AEE position 2018-2020 we paid around:

0.2x 2024/25 Cap/CF

Current Valuation = 0.8x 2024/25 Cap/CF (likely 1.2x fully diluted)

Fair Value 2024 = 5-7x equating to 3-4x upside

Note this excludes Haggen Project which can add 3-5x upside.

Achieving a 20-30 bagger generally requires the vision when the stock is trading on <0.2x Cap/CF 3-5 years out. This often couples with #commodity spots below cost curves, which then come into vogue and rise by 3-8x.
Read 3 tweets
Thought of the day: Locating a 50 bagger for 2023 entry through 2026 exit, likely characteristics, down 95%+ from 2021 peak, volume growth +2-3x, selling price price +1-2x through 2026. Examples: commodity micro cap, a tech turnaround, a crypto token, a REIT or durable goods cap.
#bitcoin miners bottom incoming:

#Bitcoin 12.5k = -30% from here = -93-98.5% = +7-15x

#Bitcoin 10k = -50% from here = -95-99% from peak = +10-20x

#Bitcoin 5k = -75% from here = -97-99.9% from peak = +15-30x

#Survivability test in play, liquidity runway requirements
#REITs & Durable goods (#USHomebuilders) bottoming likely 2H 2023, where 12 month balance sheet liquidity is under pressure due to frozen credit markets (inability to refinance = elevated default risk)

Very Tight credit conditions = -70% move from here

Frozen Credit = -90% move
Read 5 tweets
Since #WWII, #USA has used #USdollar hegemony to transfer domestic crises, harvest world #wealth and undermine the economic and financial stability of other countries through armed conflicts, financial wars, and trade wars. To maintain US dollar is to maintain US world hegemony. Since #WWII, #USA has used ...
Since March 2022, #FederalReserve has raised interest rates 6X. On 2 Nov, its 75-point rate hike and sharp #USdollar appreciation caused global #currency depreciation, capital outflows, rising debt servicing costs, hiked imported inflation and currency/debt crises of countries.
How this #KhazarianMafia #SCAM all started: At the latter part of #WWII, #USA took the opportunity to hoard tons of #gold and led the establishment of Bretton Woods system based on a peg between #USdollar and gold, thus establishing US dollar as "global hard #currency".
Read 32 tweets
:Collapsed #FTX hit by rogue transactions, analysts saw over $600 million outflows | Nov 12
- suspicious circumstances…
- The sudden collapse of "FTX" and its #Bankruptcy filing today, has revealed that FTX presently suffers from $10-$50 BILLION in liabilities with almost ZERO assets…
#HeavenlyJerusalem. #FTXbankrupty filing today, has revealed that FTX presently suffers from $10-$50 BILLION in liabilities.
- #Ukraine was receiving money from the US, Ukraine sent it to FTX, Sam #BankmanFried and #FTX sent it to #Democrats
Read 32 tweets
Thought of the day: Fighting #commodity price tops will just result in 75% plus stockprice retracements, #cyclicality music always stops, grab a chair early to avoid serious regrets and portfolio destruction. Easy clue to follow, is 65-80% margins above cost curves are peakish.
Those #commodities that are currently near bottoming (0-20%) for the next up cycle 2H2023-2025....

#tin -65%
#ironore -66%
#nickel -60% (moving up)
#Lumber -72%
#zinc -40%
#HRCSteel -67%

Know where you are in the cycle....
1st Quartile candidates for the next cycle...
Read 8 tweets
Having $30T of #debt (us gov) means each 1% increase ultimately adds $300b to the yearly interest expense. So ~3.3% rise in rates adds $1T of interest. US Gov already runs >$1T and when they trigger another recession it will be $2T in a hurry as #tax revenue falls
#Powell and the #fomc are bullshit boogeymen to people that understand the reality of the situation. They will print and print and print, because they must. Trillions of new dollars flooding into the real economy each year. The fomc will continue to grow its balance sheet
Ignore the noise and short term vol when these guys speak. Empty words. They are in a box and we all know what they will do to avoid bank failures and cascading debt defaults. They are cruelly shaking the tree and punishing the most vulnerable amongst us.
Read 5 tweets
One huge macro driver for higher sustained #inflation and much higher #commodity prices is that prices will surely have to rise to make it profitable for both Europe and North America to actually return to mining and general self sufficiency.
Emerging market / 3rd world commodity (mining) production accounts of a huge percentages of production of many key minerals. Add in China and Russia’s production and then look at who’s producing and who’s consuming and you’ll see that change is surely coming
Key countries like Chile, Brazil, Peru in South America as well as many parts of the African continent have their mining work suffering greatly from inflation. The worlds mining giants have taken advantage of low cost workers and weak environmental standards for many decades
Read 19 tweets
🧵 Is the American Dream dead? - a tweetstorm

This is a brain dump of .@RaoulGMI's 30+ years of knowledge, how the world works, and how his macro framework fits into it all ⤵️
1/ There's no denying that we're in a mess!

By the Law of Unintended Consequences, every time we try to fix A, we create problems B, C, D, E, etc.

We hardly understand these new problems unless there's hindsight to connect the dots...

So, how the hell did we get here?

Let's start by looking at the peak of the #British Empire:

It was the world's largest realm. But as with every empire, trying to control so many people across the globe has its price & #debt weakened its structure...
Read 81 tweets
Os #fertilizantes tiveram mais uma queda de preços esta semana, incluindo os nitrogenados, como #urea e Sulfato de Amônia. #naturalgas também registrou queda de preços, já que estoques na Europa estão, quase, cheios. O problema para a #commodity energética, deverá vir no início⤵️
do próximo ano, muito provavelmente, pulando a sazonalidade baixa, entre fevereiro e abril. Mas o que explicar a queda de preços dos fertilizantes? Simples: a demanda. Sabemos que independe de quão pequena seja uma oferta, se a demanda for menor, os preços caem e é justamente ⤵️
isto que está acontecendo com o mercado de fertilizantes. Todos os produtores, eu inclusive, estão avaliando a redução nas aplicações, buscando usar a reserva de nutrientes do solo, já que em anos anteriores, as aplicações foram normais. A Índia ainda não anunciou nenhum ⤵️
Read 6 tweets
As the #commodity stock wreckage mounts up, some gems to focus in on:

A) Negative EV, net cash exceeds cap and the resource is for free
B) 90-95% decliners with no material change in value, just massive expectations de-rating
C) Cap<8% of project NPV (focus > 70% IRRs)

So for #goldstocks, look Cap/oz of less than <US$10 (resources > 1moz), ofcourse negative on an EV/oz basis.

What would this be worth at the next cycle peak? Likely over $70-100/oz assuming $2300+ #gold price peak.
We are ready, conducting the research ......nothing like a fresh up cycle on the 2-6 month horizon....
Read 3 tweets
What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
The typical #Commodity or #goldstock graph that tends to interest us if backed up with fundamentals, we would expect 1H 2023 this could bottom at 2c down 50% from current levels (-95%+ from cycle peak), offering 20x returns over the following 48 months. Image
For fundamentals we would like to see 4-7c of potential annual cashflow 3 years out to back our 20x return.
This is how to create wealth, deployment of capital near a cycle bottom can grow by 10-20x over the following 48 months.

Get in step and alignment with the upcoming cycle bottom - this is the best guidance we can give any investor

Read 5 tweets
#commodities #uranium

To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
History indicates 90-95% stock decliners within #commodity sectors often offer interesting recovery returns of 15-20x (all being even), expect this to play out in many cases through 1H 2023.

Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
How to use future returns as a scale in guide?

For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out

These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....

Read 6 tweets
Today’s @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) meeting witnessed another historic 75 bps increase to policy rate levels (to a range of 3.0% to 3.25%) in an effort for the #CentralBank to manage its number one priority: fighting persistently high #inflation.
The #Fed, including in today’s meeting statement and in the Chair’s press conference, has been clearer than arguably any central bank in identifying its current goal and moving #InterestRates and #liquidity provision to achieve it.
Indeed, by moving the #Fed Funds rate for the third time in 75 bps increments we see clear evidence of a strong desire by the Committee to temper demand as a way to achieve its goal of #price moderation.
Read 13 tweets
Material up legs are scale down opportunities #uranium
Material down legs (-65% plus) are scale in opportunities (excluding the cycle top).

Demand is increasing by say 3% per year, supply can turn on 10-20% in 2024-2026 assuming $65 plus sustained spot.

$85 likely +15-25% supply

$105 likely +20-30% supply

In most #commodity markets supply is stimulated materially over 9-18 months at 65% plus cash margins.

For #uranium we see this to be no different, using sub $35/lb cash costs for compelling projects, over $100/Ib will stimulate a massive wave of fundable projects within 24m.
Read 4 tweets
Did you know where the potentially largest #uranium mines are in the world? Do you know the company that has the most upside in Sweden reinstating uranium mining? $AEE

This scoping study level project has a sub $20/lb AISC given the huge credits from Nickel, Molybdenum and V. Image
Reality check:

Low grade #uranium mines with massive secondary credits = low AISC outcomes

The option value of the Swedish assets to be built into $AEE's stockprice for $5-8 of NPV is 10-20c over the next 1-5 months.
You have been warned $AEE

$URNM entry coupled with #uranium Mining ban removal = satisfactory result
Read 6 tweets
The global economy has changed dramatically this year, and financial markets have turned volatile. The question on everyone’s mind now is…


#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty
Will recession hit India? How will it be different from past recessions that our country has faced?

Let’s look at some data points.


#recession #india #economy
Based on the RBI’s assessment, the Real GDP projection is retained at 7.2% for FY23. This comes on the back of strong investment activity, improving bank credit and rising capacity expansion.


#rbi #gdp #centralbanks
Read 8 tweets
Jeff Currie & David Greely, friends since 1992, coined many memorable $GS phrases in the 2000s #commodity cycle

Where are we now? < 18 months into 3 year turning, before 3 years of investing & 6 years of returns (12yr total cycle).

..& some important differences this cycle👇🔥
“Stay long and hang on” seems to be the theme! Many won’t be able to weather the volatility, but that the whole point of where the returns come from though volatile cycle turnings.
And yes @abaxx_exchange was specifically built to grow into this tailwind & service this cycle (stared building it ahead of the cycle)

1970s cycle: NYMEX energy was born
2000s cycle: ICE was born

New tech combined with crisis & new market structures where great markets are born
Read 3 tweets
@jornane_no @Warcop I think we're mixing up two different cloud use cases here, which have similarities but also huge differences. We also have to look at the size of the company we're talking about. 1/
@jornane_no @Warcop A: You need infrastructure to run your product/service. Yes, either way, you will need people who develop the software, deploy it somewhere and operate it there. IMHO companies should focus on their distinctive features and buy the commodities from suppliers. 2/
@jornane_no @Warcop The smaller your company is, the more this matters. Like a small business would not invest in their own electricity infrastructure and a whole electricity department because it's obvious that it is cheaper to rent an office with batteries included. 3/
Read 29 tweets
Africa should take full advantage of current elevated prices to cash in on mineral wealth: The African continent is home to substantial reserves of #copper and #cobalt (in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—DRC—Zambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe), #diamonds (in Botswana and…
Angola), #platinum (in South Africa and Zimbabwe), #uranium (in Namibia, Niger and South Africa), #gold (in Ghana, South Africa and Sudan), #iron (in South Africa), #manganese (in South Africa, Gabon and Ghana), bauxite (in Guinea), #lithium (in Zimbabwe), #coal (in South Africa
and Mozambique), #naturalgas (in Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria) and #petroleum (in Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya).
Read 8 tweets
1/ Dear all, many among you have asked me about my opinion on #oil, #logistics, #pipelines, price movements and a reality check on the #german #embargo plans. So I decided to make another explanatory thread. Grab a beer, this may take a while to read.
2/ It has often been said that oil is a global #commodity that travels on the seas. That view is not wrong, but incomplete. In fact, much oil is shipped by pipelines, on all continents. For an imcomplete but illustrative overview, see…
3/ Most pipelines either distribute incoming seaborne supplies to inland consumers (e.g., refineries), or they route domestically produced oil to seaports where it is loaded on #tankers.
Read 25 tweets
Commodity cycle start or end?

Note: I am not commodity analyst, but exploration geo at the bottom of the commodity chain for metals/hydrocarbons.

Sharing some stats in the 🧵
#mintwit #commodity #batterymetals #mining
Reading macro analysts, following arguments emerge.

Current commodity run is:
- supply chain related only
- speculation fueled
- long term secular shortage in commodities
- caused by geopolitics, sanctions etc.
- going to end soon
- going to last a decade
I am personally watching for short term pull back, but support long term commodity price increase trend from supply shortage perspective.

Uncertainties: china, wars, geopolitics.

Below is some data supporting long term commodity bull.
Read 12 tweets
#OperaciónEspecial: todo va según lo planeado que sorprenderá al mundo

Durante los últimos seis meses, el Instituto #RUSSTRAT ha predicho con precisión los principales eventos reales y su lógica interna de desarrollo.
Por lo tanto, en el informe de noviembre "#Rusia se ha centrado: el país y el mundo en vísperas de grandes cambios" se afirmó directamente: en el próximo año y medio, #Rusia ajustará significativamente la alineación planetaria de fuerzas.
El desarrollo actual de la situación en el informe se definió como probable, pero en menor medida. Además del hecho de que la operación militar se llevará a cabo con la introducción de tropas solo a lo largo de las fronteras administrativas
Read 46 tweets
Thank you to @BloorStreetCap for yesterday's insightful #uranium discussion with some of the pioneers of the industry. A fantastic line up with in depth insight into all aspects of the #uranium sector.

Some of our highlights can be found the the thread below:
1/ “The world is recognising the science of nuclear power, not the false ideology.” – #NexGen CEO

“Price of #equities is screaming buy relative to the #spot price” – @uraniuminsider

“We’re on the cusp of a really really big move here [spot price]” – @UraniumEnergy
2/ #Sprott are seeing growing #institutional and #FO interest in the #uranium space. Very early stages of broad adoption by generalist #investors. Ciampaglia believes we are ‘just starting the second inning of this uranium cycle’.
Read 12 tweets

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