It would be weird if a political sociologist in N.Ireland didn't have something to say about the #NIcensus2021 results released today, wouldn't it?!
& a pity if there weren't slides to go along with those comments...
NI population is up, more households with fewer people in each (2.44 ave).
There is more ethnic and language diversity than before but, oh my, it's still not very much. 2/9
"How would you describe your national identity" - a comparison here between 2011 & 2021.
A drop in British only (down 8 percentage points), and a rise in Irish only (up by 4 % points). 3/9
People can tick more than one box (hence the 'hybrid') so when we put these figures together, we can see a pattern of how they mix together (e.g. British + Irish, or Irish + N.Irish, etc.)
4/9
More people now hold more than one #passport.
🛂
The decline by 10% points in those holding only UK 🇬🇧passports is striking, as is the rise by 8% points on those with only Irish 🇮🇪 passports.
But still over half passport holders in NI hold a UK passport. 5/9
But now to the headline-grabbing results... #Religion
In most countries, census results on religion usually get attention for incr. secularisation (👋🇦🇺, 🇮🇪).
In NI today it is because fact Catholics are now in the plurality in a region designed for a Protestant majority. 6/9
Perhaps this is the most interesting trend in terms of religion: the change in between how people are brought up and then how they choose to identify now.
TL;DR Protestants are slightly more likely to 'lose their religion'. 7/9
Now for a couple of 'bear these things in mind' tweets - namely, don't conflate complicated categories.
Drawing on the NI Life&Times Survey data...
Around 2/3 of Catholics self-describe as nationalist and 2/3 Protestants self-describe as unionist.
8/9
Finally, & still on the 'it's a bit more complicated than that' theme, #NILT data on border poll voting...
Notably, the proportion of Catholics saying they wd vote for a Utd Ireland tomorrow rose from 56% in 2019 to 66% in 2021, & doubled from 17% to 34% among 'No Religion'. 9/9
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Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓 #AE22 🏖️
1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8