Katy Hayward Profile picture
Sep 22, 2022 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
It would be weird if a political sociologist in N.Ireland didn't have something to say about the #NIcensus2021 results released today, wouldn't it?!
& a pity if there weren't slides to go along with those comments...

So, here we are, a thread of nine.
1/9
nisra.gov.uk/publications/c…
NI population is up, more households with fewer people in each (2.44 ave).

There is more ethnic and language diversity than before but, oh my, it's still not very much.
2/9
"How would you describe your national identity" - a comparison here between 2011 & 2021.
A drop in British only (down 8 percentage points), and a rise in Irish only (up by 4 % points).
3/9
People can tick more than one box (hence the 'hybrid') so when we put these figures together, we can see a pattern of how they mix together (e.g. British + Irish, or Irish + N.Irish, etc.)

4/9
More people now hold more than one #passport.
🛂
The decline by 10% points in those holding only UK 🇬🇧passports is striking, as is the rise by 8% points on those with only Irish 🇮🇪 passports.

But still over half passport holders in NI hold a UK passport.
5/9
But now to the headline-grabbing results...
#Religion
In most countries, census results on religion usually get attention for incr. secularisation (👋🇦🇺, 🇮🇪).
In NI today it is because fact Catholics are now in the plurality in a region designed for a Protestant majority.
6/9
Perhaps this is the most interesting trend in terms of religion: the change in between how people are brought up and then how they choose to identify now.

TL;DR Protestants are slightly more likely to 'lose their religion'.
7/9
Now for a couple of 'bear these things in mind' tweets - namely, don't conflate complicated categories.

Drawing on the NI Life&Times Survey data...

Around 2/3 of Catholics self-describe as nationalist and 2/3 Protestants self-describe as unionist.

8/9
Finally, & still on the 'it's a bit more complicated than that' theme, #NILT data on border poll voting...

Notably, the proportion of Catholics saying they wd vote for a Utd Ireland tomorrow rose from 56% in 2019 to 66% in 2021, & doubled from 17% to 34% among 'No Religion'.
9/9

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More from @hayward_katy

May 28, 2022
*Thank you* for every tweet & supportive msg re: the slurs on my academic integrity

I'm not important, but information, evidence & facts are.

In honour of that, here's a🧵correcting false claims in @bbcquestiontime on #Protocol [16:22-38:50] #bbcqt
1/22
bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod…
There were statements made that some will disagree with or view v. differently.

& Each panellist @RobertBuckland @peterkyle @johnfinucane @little_pengelly @naomi_long made some statements that were true.

No need for me to repeat those ones, with two interesting exceptions…
2/
@little_pengelly claimed @allianceparty had called for "rigorous implementation" of the Protocol [33:05]

As @naomi_long said, it was re: UKG previous intention to break intl law in Sept 20

NB the phrase was used by *4* party leaders & @MarosSefcovic
3/
reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
Read 23 tweets
May 26, 2022
Latest N.Ireland Life&Times #NILTSurvey results are out!📊

NI’s leading social attitudes survey.
Randomised sampling.
Individual interviewing.
1,397 respondents.

All results here: ark.ac.uk/nilt/

Here's 6 findings on political attitudes to pique your interest -
1/8 Image
First up, everyone’s talking about the Belfast/Good Fri Agmt these days. What does NI really think about it?

2/3 see it as still the best basis for governing NI

Most want further implementation (Bill of Rts, Civic Forum)

Most want some reform too e.g. Petition of Concern
2/8 Image
Now then what about that other international agreement of some consequence for N.Ireland?

Knowledge of the #Protocol rose from 47% in 2020 to 65% in 2021.

Support for it rose too.

In 2021 people became more opinionated about the Protocol. Read our @ARK_info report for more
3/8 Chart showing 1/3 think Pro...
Read 8 tweets
May 4, 2022
Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.

There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.

Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓
#AE22 🏖️

1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?

What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?

Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶

Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳

What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8
Read 8 tweets
Feb 17, 2022
Serious concerns about growth of executive power & weakening rule of #law & #humanrights protection are closer to home than Hungary or Poland ⚠️

I'm proud to be part of the UK Constitution Monitoring Group, whose 2nd report is issued today @Con_Soc
👇
1/5 consoc.org.uk/publications/t…
In summary -
UK govt intent on reducing already-insufficient checks and balances on ministerial power.
2/5
Raft of new bills show nature of the UK Govt's agenda for constitutional reform.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Oct 22, 2021
The #Protocol on IRL/NI was agreed 2 years ago, with a key objective of avoiding a hard @BorderIrish

But what has #Brexit been like for people living along the #border?

We @QUBSSESW @europe_icban @UKandEU investigated…
And our report is out today!
tinyurl.com/AfterBrexit
1/10 Cover of Border After Brexit report
This is our 4th QUB/ICBAN report since the 2016 referendum.

The study involved an online #survey of those living/working in the Central Border Region.

Our survey received c400 responses, equally spread either side of the border. There were also interviews & focus groups.

2/10
We are VERY grateful to each of the respondents to this survey.

It took a time to complete because we insisted on getting comments/views/examples…

And hence the report is another fairly hefty one, as the #Contents show.

The focus is on giving space/voice to respondents.

3/10 Contents pages of the report
Read 10 tweets
Jul 2, 2021
My wee book on the Irish border is out!

Inc. Irish #borders of land, sea, mind, & (gawd 'elp us) tech

Endorsed by its subject, @BorderIrish 🤩
the most sound & stand-out social scientists & journalists in GB & Ireland 😍
& the Primate of All-Ireland 😇

us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/what…
Read 6 tweets

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