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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Sep 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#Ukrainian forces continued to make advances north of #Lyman and on the eastern bank of the #Oskil River. The latest update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
The #Ukrainian counter-offensive in #Kharkiv and northern Donetsk Oblasts continued to make gains near #Lyman on September 25 and September 26. Image
#Russian forces continued conducting offensive operations around #Bakhmut and west of #Donetsk City. Image
#Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence about the progress of #Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive on September 25 and September 26. Image
The Kremlin faces a daunting task in trying to calm the #Russian people while still mobilizing enough men to keep fighting. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 27
NEW | Niger revoked the operating permit for a uranium mine from French state-owned mining company Orano. Russia aims to assume operations based on an early June Bloomberg report that Russian state-owned nuclear company Rosatom is in talks to acquire Orano's Nigerien assets. 1/5Image
The Nigerien junta is likely seeking military support or near-term access to revenue to bolster its counterinsurgency efforts and economy, strengthening its regime security. The junta has brokered other deals to exchange natural resources for loans and weapons in 2024. 2/5
The Kremlin has a continent-wide strategy to dominate the nuclear energy market to boost the Russian economy and increase leverage over countries that aim to cut Russian energy purchases. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 21
NEW | The reported presence of high-level Islamic State leaders in Somalia & across Africa reflects African affiliates' increasingly critical role in the IS global network, including funding external attacks & recruiting foreign fighters. 1/8Image
A US drone strike targeted IS Somalia Province (ISS) Emir Abdulqadir Mumin in May. US officials claimed that Mumin became IS’s “global leader” in 2023. Independent analysts have clarified that Mumin likely leads the General Directorate of Provinces & is not the IS caliph. 2/8
The directorate provides operational guidance and coordinates funding to all of IS’s global affiliates through various IS regional offices, plays a central role in external attack operations, and oversees internal administrative high-level affairs within provinces. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 7
One area Russian officials focused on during their Africa tours is strengthening Russia’s military footprint. The Kremlin uses military influence in Africa to leverage limited resources to create opportunities to threaten Europe & advance Russia's image as a great power. 1/7


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Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov pledged to boost Libyan National Army capabilities, signed a multi-sectoral agreement with Niger, and discussed military cooperation w/ Mali. Foreign Minister Lavrov also announced that Russia would send more military support to Burkina Faso. 2/7
Lavrov’s visit to Chad aimed to advance the Kremlin’s efforts to grow its relationship with the Chadian regime—including military ties. Putin offered security assistance to help “stabilize” Chad in January and Lavrov discussed CT and military cooperation during his visit. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 6
NEW | Russian officials are visiting Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin’s strategic goals of supplanting Western influence & better positioning Russia for prolonged confrontation with the West by tightening military, economic, and political ties with African partners. 1/8Image
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Guinea, Congo, Burkina Faso, and Chad, while Deputy Defense Minister Yunus Bek Yevkurov visited Libya, Mali, and Niger on separate trips between May 31 and June 5. 2/8
The visits are advancing Russian efforts to strengthen its military footprint, which allows the Kremlin to use limited resources to threaten NATO’s southern flank & degrade Western influence, advancing the narrative that Russia is a revitalized great power equal to the West. 3/8


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Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 19
Iranian President #Raisi and several senior officials were in a helicopter crash earlier today. What’s happening in #Iran and what does it mean for the future of the regime? 🧵 1/12
Iranian media reported earlier today that Raisi and several members of his administration including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian were in a serious helicopter crash in Iran. 2/12
It is unclear if any officials have died in the crash. Search and rescue teams have suspended unsuccessful aerial searches because of bad weather. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 3
Russian forces are now deployed next to withdrawing US troops in Niamey. This supports CTP's assessment that Russian troops will also backfill the US base in northern Niger, which will create several long-term opportunities for the Kremlin to strategically threaten Europe. 1/9🧵


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The 100-person Russian Africa Corps deployment will immediately enable Russia to strengthen its influence in Niger & consolidate its logistical network in Africa, but will likely remain small in the coming months due to recruitment issues. 2/9 Image
However, greater Russian influence and military presence in Niger will create long-term opportunities for the Kremlin to strategically threaten Europe through energy blackmail, refugee/migration weaponization, and more conventional threats. 3/9
Read 8 tweets

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