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Jun 12

NEW | Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) forces clashed with opposition forces in Mogadishu, marking an escalation in their constitutional and electoral dispute.

Clashes between the two parties in Mogadishu will likely continue to intensify in the immediate term, although there is growing international pressure on both sides to compromise on their maximalist political positions. 🧵⬇️

Clashes between FGS forces and forces loyal to the Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition occurred on June 3 and June 4 after both sides mobilized forces in preparation for an SFC protest against FGS constitutional and electoral revisions.

The FGS’s pressure contributed to SFC leaders abandoning their temporary headquarters, causing the protest plans to fall apart. 2/6

The fighting comes months into a political standoff over the FGS’s controversial approval of a new constitution, which extended the Somlai president’s term by one year, delayed federal elections, and mandated direct federal parliamentary elections going forward.

The SFC rejected the new constitution as a power grab by the FGS and has organized a broad opposition coalition across Mogadishu, which the FGS has responded to by deploying security forces to disrupt SFC activity. 3/6

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Critical Threats

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Jun 8

NEW | The Iranian regime appears to have expanded its threshold for attacking Israel as part of its broader effort to preserve Hezbollah. (1/7)

The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters announced the “cessation of armed forces operations” against Israel but threatened that Iranian forces would inflict “much more severe and crushing measures” if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continues to operate against Hezbollah, including in southern Lebanon. Iranian officials and media have previously only threatened to attack Israel if the IDF struck Beirut. (2/7)

The Iranian regime’s inclusion of Israeli activity in southern Lebanon in its threshold for attacking Israel is part of the Iranian effort to try to curb Israeli operations against Hezbollah, particularly by trying to pressure the United States to convince Israel to halt operations against Hezbollah. (3/7)

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May 26

NEW | US forces struck Iranian boats as they attempted to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz last night. Iran fired surface-to-air missiles at US aircraft in response, and the United States subsequently struck missile launch sites near Bandar Abbas. (1/5)

Iran may conduct additional attacks targeting the Gulf states in response. The IRGC promised that US “ceasefire violations” justify a “reciprocal” response, and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned in a statement today that the US military bases in the Middle East are no longer safe. (2/5)

Iran likely believes that targeting the Gulf states enables Iran to impose costs against US allies without necessarily provoking a direct US response. Iran responded to US strikes in southern Iran earlier this month with a drone and ballistic missile attack targeting the UAE a day later. (3/5)

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May 16

NEW | Talks between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and leading national opposition coalition over a constitutional and electoral dispute collapsed as Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s controversial term extension took effect on May 15.

The FGS and opposition are now at an institutional impasse, which will likely lead to clashes between their affiliated forces.🧵⬇️

The talks were meant to produce a resolution between the FGS and Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition over Mohamud’s term extension and the holding of elections.

The talks collapsed over the FGS’s insistence upon direct elections in upcoming state and federal elections, which the SFC has described as a non-starter due to the opposition’s preference for the current clan-based quota and indirect voting system. 2/7

Tensions between the two sides have significantly increased since the FGS’s approval of a new constitution on March 4, which extended Mohamud’s term by one year, delayed federal elections until 2027, and mandated direct elections.

The SFC denounced the new constitution as a power grab by Mohamud and has said that he is not the legitimate Somali president after his original term expires May 15. 3/7

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Critical Threats

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May 6

NEW | Iran seeks to achieve positive strategic objectives beyond the negative objective of surviving the war. Iran’s principal positive strategic objective at this time is to secure recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which would fundamentally remake regional and global maritime norms in a manner extremely detrimental to US interests. (1/7)

Long-term control of the Strait would require Iran to secure US recognition of its claims to the Strait of Hormuz through a negotiated agreement so that Iran could order ships to comply with its rules legitimately and then intercept those ships that fail to comply. (2/7)

Iranian negotiators increasingly prioritized securing its control over the Strait in negotiations, likely because it believes Iranian control over the Strait would act as a safeguard against future wars between Iran and Israel and the United States. (3/7)

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Critical Threats

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May 4

NEW | Somali pirates have conducted the most hijackings in Somali waters in a 10-day period since the end of the peak of the Somali piracy crisis in 2012.

Sustained piracy off the Somali coast would degrade security in another vital global shipping lane amid the fallout from the Iran war and create opportunities for al Shabaab to benefit financially and further its ties with the Houthis. 🧵⬇️

Somali pirates have attacked one vessel and hijacked three others since April 21, including two international commercial ships.

A US-led multinational maritime force and the EU’s maritime force in the Indian Ocean have upgraded the threat level for the Somali coast, recommending that vessels exercise increased vigilance. 2/5

Sustained piracy off the Somali coast would degrade security in another vital global shipping lane amid costly global supply disruptions from the Iran war.

Up to 30 percent of global container traffic uses the Red Sea route, but Somali piracy and Houthi strikes on commercial ships have caused increased insurance costs and reliance on less efficient, and therefore more expensive, alternate routes in the past. 3/5

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