Thread by @FletcherRussia

Today's Eurasia Lunch series is chaired by @FletcherSchool visiting scholar Yury Nadtochey who will speak about ways to manage escalation risks between #Russia and the West. #AcademicTwitter

More about the visiting scholars here: sites.tufts.edu/fletcherrussia…

Why do we need confidence-building measures to manage conflict, asks Yury Nadtochey?

"There are ways to tackle asymmetry of information and there is a basis for decision-making, based on social norms and not just Benefits-Cost Analysis." @FletcherSchool

.@FletcherSchool @FletcherRussia visiting scholar Yury Nadtochey discusses if confidence-building measures prevent inadvertent war?

"Only if there is a strong desire among conflicted parties to maintain peace," Nadtochey adds. #AcademicTwitter

"There are multilateral and bilateral alternatives besides the #Vienna document to prevent escalation and conflict," Yuri Nadtochey adds.

These include:
COLREGS (1972): imo.org/en/About/Conve…
INCSEA (1972): 2009-2017.state.gov/t/isn/4791.htm
DMA (1989).

"EU and @NATO approach based on a set of rules to prevent military conflict is set in Western systems and not an inclusive system as it is NATO/EU centered system," @FletcherSchool @FletcherRussia visiting scholar Yuri Nadtochey adds.

"No coherence among EU-NATO members and there is no unified position on dealing with problems about security and conflict prevention. #Ukraine is a grey zone and always been a grey zone after the fall of Soviet Union," Yuri Nadtochey adds.

"Ukraine still remains out of security perimeter at @NATO and has been for two decades, so how do we deal with the issue," asks Yuri Nadtochey.

"Co-operation or limited confrontation" are two possible outcomes, he adds.

Yuri illustrates mutual fear options: #AcademicTwitter
- Unilateral de-escalation measures.
-Enhancing existing communication lines.
-Secret Diplomacy.

"The idea of collective defense and mutual assurances work with military alliances to tackle those aiming to dismantle the current rules-based world order. These were established in the 1990s and strengthened post World War 2," Yuri adds.

"Revisionism can be tackled by multilateralism and collective responses. Multilateralism matters in today's time," Yuri further adds. @FletcherSchool

"There is a strong belief in Kremlin that we are dealing with dwarfs (reference for Eastern European countries) or middle economies and focus is only on the U.S." - Yuri added, explaining the rationale in Moscow.

"Strategic co-operation between Russia and NATO is impossible. But possible co-operation to prevent war is important to overcome the most severe consequences," Yuri adds.

@FletcherSchool