I've seen enough. Worst possible #Lula victory in first-round of #brazilianelections today. Much more worried now for second round for the following reasons.
I am getting a lot of emails about "the rise of the far right in Europe" the last days. That generally means that there are two countries that gained broader attention in which the far right does well. But how significant is this "rise" really? #thread 🧵
In Sweden 🇸🇪, #SwedenDemocrats gained 3% compared to 2018. Taking into account slightly lower turnout, it was actually 2%.
2022: 20.5% x 84.2% = 17.26%
2018: 17.5% x 87.1% = 15.24%
In France, Marine Le Pen gained effectively (% of electorate) just o.6% in 1st round and 4.6% in 2nd round.
2022: 23.2% x 73.7% = 17.2%
2017: 21.3% x 77.8% = 16.6%
2022: 41.5% x 72.0% = 29.9%
2017: 33.9% x 74.6% = 25.3%
With this bang on the gong 22 scholars, including me, were officially inducted into the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Science or @_knaw , joining roughly 600 others. Sadly, I had to do it online.
An enormous honor after a not very traditional career. A quick #thread 🧵
1. I never thought about, or wanted to, become an academic. I never excelled at, or enjoyed, school and even had to repeat 5th class in high school. I mainly entered university to avoid military service (then still compulsory in the Netherlands).
2. I graduated high school with five 6s and two 7s (out of 10) and profited from the fact that universities in the Netherlands are not competitive and allow anyone with the proper high school degree to enter (irrespective of their grades). 🙏
Great thread by my colleague @AmandaMurdie (read it!). Some additions:
1. Journals require too many reviews (2 is enough). 2. Pool of reviewers of most journals is too small. 3. Pools overlap too much. 4. Too many submissions!
The debate about democratic erosion continues to make the classic mistake of externalizing the threats, focusing on the extremist margins rather than the political mainstream. 🧵
1. Case in point, with regard of #January6th almost all focus is on the people who storming the Capitol rather than those inside of it.
2. People and organizations we should focus less on:
I finally read the whole book by @A_SHEKH0VTS0V on the relationship between Russia and the Western far right. It is essential reading for academics, journos, and think tankers working/writing on the topic.
1. For me personally, it was more insightful on Russia's position on the far right than the far right's position on Russia. This is not just because I know the far right better, but because Anton's analysis of the Kremlin and Russian politics is excellent.
2. He highlights how Russia prefers mainstream political actors ("Putin Versteher") but is kind of forced to rely increasingly on "radical" actors because of Russia's increasingly toxic image in the West.