Thread by @Martin_Sauer

The storm of war - Winter is coming

Or: The war in #Ukraine can end faster than the West suspects.

A 🧵about #Putin and the morale of an army, which everyone currently seems to ignore.

1/25

Sunday, I'll get up and let professionals prove me wrong. Your opinion is welcome. You are cordially invited to comment, criticize or plain add your perception.

2/25

Prologue

Militias, i.e. civilians up to low trained soldiers with poor equipment and low motivation have a special role in military conflict: with few exceptions (e.g. homeland defense) they are militarily worthless. Rather a burden.

3/25

Parts of the Russian army in #Ukraine are transforming more and more towards a militia. Several "fresh" units are already considered militia.

Militias are the weakest thing in combat value that can be used as a unit in war.

4/25

I am NOT aware of a single war in the modern era where militias made any difference in a war of aggression (on the attacker's side). None.

5/25

Foundation

Combat morale, also called mission motivation, refers to the behavior of soldiers in warlike conflicts and their willingness to perform military tasks. We know major influencing factors from military sociology and history:

6/25

1. mission: attack in enemy territory or homeland defense.
2. level of training: untrained forces (militias) versus maximally trained professional soldiers.
3. equipment level: minimum vs. maximum and weather.
4. supply: rations, ammunition, field mail, etc.

7/25

5. danger: of the mission.
6. state of exhaustion: fresh versus completely exhausted.
7. course: course of war so far.
8. uvam.

The 7 points are currently among the most important. Especially in equipment and supply the Russian army suffered from the beginning.

8/25

With the new recruits, the partial mobilization, Russia's army is in all 7 points more and more at the bottom.

Russian Army

The new recruits without training lower the average training in the troops.

9/25

The approaching onset of winter and enemy action coupled with the increased amount of soldiers will dramatically worsen supplies. Soldiers starve, freeze, have limited or no equipment, etc.

10/25

Personal danger for Russian soldiers in the face of #Ukrainians in high spirits on the advance is now increasing rather by the hour.

Rotation of exhausted forces hardly takes place: for lack of replacements or access. Especially since #Ukraine is blocking supplies.

11/25

Breaking Point

We know that every person, but also every group and therefore every army has a "breaking point". That is, the point at which everything breaks down. Consequently ceases to exist in this form.

12/25

If we now look at the current reports and the extremes Russia is going to, we get the impression that this "breaking point" may be closer than anyone in the West has suspected so far.

It is not even being discussed publicly.

13/25

Army Corps

In addition, the Russian army is NOT loyal to #Putin - except for the leading heads around #Schoigu. On the contrary, retired officers and occasionally active officers see Putin as an enemy.

14/25

It is in the nature of things that plans already exist by groups of officers to depose Putin. All these plans need a critical mass.

15/25

Critical mass

Both areas: Morale of troops and officers against #Putin can lead to a drastic turnaround very quickly in the #Ukraine witch's cauldron ("witch's cauldron" for Russian soldiers): reaching critical mass.

16/25

This can be the de facto dissolution of the Russian army or a march against Putin. It may become so extreme that Ukraine ends up taking Crimea by car. Without resistance.

17/25

Both are becoming more likely with each passing day, because for all the threat Putin poses, Russian soldiers don't want to die. And that is exactly what they are threatened with on the front against Ukraine.

18/25

Conclusion

If Putin continues like this, one of the two cases will happen. The only question is: how close is the Russian army to that point? With current reports, I suspect as of today: over 90%. Cold, no rations can already tip the balance.

19/25

Epilogue: Ukraine

What does this mean for #Ukraine? Just continue as before. Maybe show the Russians even more aggressive ways out by capitulation or rebellion: via internet, flyers, TV. Rasputiza is coming. Winter is coming. This plays for you.

20/25

Epilog: West - Germany

There are several options for Germany:
First, continue as before, let it happen.
Second, deliver tanks and armored personnel carriers with all allies to #Ukraine, forcing this rupture. That would save lives.

21/25

Third. intelligent bluff

Some background information beforehand:
a. Germany's refusal to supply Leopard 2 and AIV is now legendary. Also in Russia.
b. The criticism of the regime in Russia is enormous: Where is the modern equipment? Where are the Armata?

22/25

c. There is respect in Russia, especially for the Leopard 2.

So: would an unknown, insignificant state secretary launch the information that two Ukrainian battailons have been trained on Leopard 2 and Marder in Germany since March.

23/25

Would she/he further hint that repatriation of these two battailons to #Ukraine including all equipment is pending - without naming a time window. Would this go through the press, the CDU would nag the Government....

24/25

And would the Government then offer an (untrustworthy) public denial, then that can end the war and strengthen Germany's reputation internationally.

25/25