1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 4, 2022
The situation is still evolving at fast pace in #Luhansk. Lots of reports that #UAarmy is regrouping & preparing to go to #Svatove . Ru regrouped & defend slightly better for now.
#UkraineMap
The situation is still evolving at fast pace in #Luhansk. Lots of reports that #UAarmy is regrouping & preparing to go to #Svatove . Ru regrouped & defend slightly better for now.
#UkraineMap
2/ According to recent intel on Russian Tg exchanges/Tchat in the area we can have a global idea of the situation right now in this :
(but they are delusional if they believe help will come soon enough)
(but they are delusional if they believe help will come soon enough)
3/ the big news tonight is that #Snihurivka (#Kherson Oblast) would be now under Ukrainian control according to Romanov (he is usually reliable even if some mistakes can occur some times to times, apparently he picked up directly from local ru troops)
Also the push will continue
Also the push will continue
4/ now avoiding the main defensive lines made by Ru, & then forcing them to retreat & regroup if the main pushes can go all the way, as expected.
we should see quite soon how all this will unfold, but the dynamic is really important right now, on this side of the #inhulets .
we should see quite soon how all this will unfold, but the dynamic is really important right now, on this side of the #inhulets .
5/ so if Russians want to "block" it from happening they might have to take forces from the #Kherson #Mykolaiv area, but then they will certainly suffer great losses there, of they might want to bring in troops from all the area of #Zaporijia #Zaporizhzhia but then they will ease
6/ the preps of the next attack that was in preparation there, by the Ukr forces (but meant to start as soon as West #Dniepr would have been freed of Russians (& Ukr troops could have come there to build some more "muscle").
So unless the Ru suddenly finds 8-10k men to insert in
So unless the Ru suddenly finds 8-10k men to insert in
7/ the area of #Kherson Oblast..
well they will certainly lose a lot at the same time in diff areas.
also you can go back to my factual analysis (based on numbers/figures & hard evidences) - & funny enough, back then, among the 65 "quote retweets", there were some ex mil who
well they will certainly lose a lot at the same time in diff areas.
also you can go back to my factual analysis (based on numbers/figures & hard evidences) - & funny enough, back then, among the 65 "quote retweets", there were some ex mil who
8/ wrote a nice words about it & really understood what it was about : among them my friends @ChuckPfarrer / @JKaarsbo / J6 (hey brother) /Dan etc or estimated colleague like @TrentTelenko / etc), when i called it about the fact that Ru will certainly experience a "crash" coming
9/ quite soon in the area. Also you can understand how the "effet falaise" or cascading effect is going right now
reminder :
reminder :
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1567080485007884288
11/ what it also implies now is a whole different reality. bc from now on, #UArmy will be able to use regular M777 or Caesar type of Howitzer with special ammo /coordinated w drones & direct sat images, r going to pick appart & destroy everything up to the Dam near #NovaKakhovka
12/ same goes for all the materials & men that will try to travel along the M-14 close to the #Dniepr
so it also implies, that some rockets (that would have been used on the Himars system for other targets), can be aim now to interdict direct bigger threats past the river Dniepr
so it also implies, that some rockets (that would have been used on the Himars system for other targets), can be aim now to interdict direct bigger threats past the river Dniepr
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