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Lykeion (lie-key-on)

@thelykeion

Oct 3

Corporate margins are at all-time highs, and thanks to recent outsized inflation prints, real wages are cratering.
1/5

thelykeion.com/charts-of-the-…

Real wage destruction is rarely a good thing, and the longer this goes on the larger the impact to demand (this is only a good thing if you’re trying to kill inflation as it reduces demand).

However, this is not really sustainable as there’s a limit to which workers will accept being squeezed before demanding wage increases to at least offset inflation.

Read 5 tweets

Lykeion (lie-key-on)

@thelykeion

May 16

@ttmygh

5 takeaways from the @ttmygh interview with Tian Yang of @VrntPerception

Go to grant-williams.com to subscribe for the full interview

A short 🧵on Policy Credibility, A (Politically) Pragmatic Fed, Shorting JGBs, Brazil, and the Commodity Super Cycle

1- Policy Credibility Matters

“As of right now, there’s probably not that many signs of relief, so it looks like everything comes back to policy credibility controlling inflation expectations, which means they have to engineer a genuine foreign headline inflation. So as of

right now, it still feels like the hiking and the hawkishness will persist. I think in order to see a shift, we definitely need to see headline inflation roll over as the initial first condition. But obviously, we still don’t see that.”

Read 16 tweets

Lykeion (lie-key-on)

@thelykeion

May 14

@mnicoletos

10 highlights from Zoltan's latest (somewhat terrifying) note.

Thanks for sharing @mnicoletos

"Looking back, QE was essentially monetary policy for the asset rich, with trickle -down benefits for the less wealthy."

"Asset price inflation on the back of traditional QE, and consumption growth on the back of fiscal QE (helicopter money), pushed the level of demand higher, and the pandemic and geopolitics have pushed the level of supply lower."

"If the origin of QE is to lean against deflation by generating asset price inflation (positive wealth effects), leaning against inflation must involve generating asset price deflation (negative wealth effects) – the core of Bill Dudley’s arguments."

Read 18 tweets

Lykeion (lie-key-on)

@thelykeion

Mar 10

A brief history of the US #Oil Export Ban and subsequent lifting in '15

With gas prices recently breaking ATHs, ‘the ban’ will likely be a heated topic going forward… likely once the energy secretary figures out just how much oil the country she represents consumes 👀
1/21

From ‘50 to ‘57, US production of crude increased by 33% while imports doubled as new cheap oil from the ME reached the market. Concerned about the nation’s growing dependence on imports, Congress authorized the Mandatory Oil Import Quota Program in '59, restricting imports. 2/21

From '59 until '70, domestic crude oil production increased by 2.6 mbpd, and net imports of oil increased by 0.4 million barrels per day. In '70, annual oil production peaked at 9.6mbpd. The program ended in '73. 3/21

Read 21 tweets

Lykeion (lie-key-on)

@thelykeion

Mar 8

1/4
$XOM FCF Yield and EBITDA margins have already soared back to life. Now add in the combination of
-Triple-digit #OIL
-Last years cost-cutting measures
-Focused CAPEX spend
-ESG discount addressed

...and well 👇

2/4

3/4

Read 4 tweets

Lykeion (lie-key-on)

@thelykeion

Feb 4

@JacobShap

What's going on with Russia and Ukraine?

@JacobShap breaks it all down for us

- Russia does not want to fight a war, but in order to force political and security concessions, it must convince the West that it’s prepared to fight.
1/6

2/6
-The implications of a full-scale Russian invasion would impact #oil, #naturalgas, #fertilizer, nickel, and wheat prices

-Russia has deployed over 100k soldiers to its border. According to the DoD, Russia is ready to invade with the goal of conquering the entire country

3/6
-According to Reuters, Russia has even shipped blood and medical supplies to the frontlines.

To counter the threat, the US has placed 8,500 troops on “heightened alert” (That’s less than 10% of Russia’s deployed strength… Putin must be terrified).

Read 6 tweets

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