Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #wti

Most recents (13)

1/ Thanks for voting.

First 5 minute of the new hour candle seem to have higher volatility according to initial research.

So I went down a level and checked 1min candles.

This is the aggregated result for 9 FX pairs+ #WTI + #XAUUSD for last 18 months.

2/ Despite ignoring outliers, you can see that in aggregate, first minute seems to have higher volatility than the rest.

Another interesting observation is that second highest volatile 1min candle is 16th min and third most volatile candle is 31st min.
3/ This was a bit surprising.

I mean... for markets as mature as #FX it is a big thing to have such a repetitive profile ... only thing which came to my mind was that despite trying to ignore extreme outliers, these minutes are still picking up effects of smaller risk events.
Read 7 tweets
Sell #WTI puts to corporate hedgers
Sell front month #Brent calls
(short a front month strangle)
EVM option models show short dated options still rich to fair value

Buy 6 month Brent calls

Net short vol to fund exposure to tightening market in 2020
What did I mean by "sell #WTI puts to corporate hedgers"?

Many shale firms are required to hedge per loan terms. In other words, they're forced buyers of puts which overpay for the insurance.

The spike in vol created a great entry point
"Sell front month Brent calls"

Again, the vol spike on the Saudi news created a great entry point to get short the front month while simultaneously buying 6m calls

1m - 6m spread 88th percentile over past year
Read 4 tweets
My updated view on #SP500. Is Fed about to disappoint sending #equities much lover towards ~2000 for SP500? Then stepping back in FOR REAL ~Q2 2020 to avoid #DEFLATIONARY Melt-down - which will create bounce in market and later new major decline during #STAGFLATION #HZupdates
One more push lower on #VIX before major bottom - and strong reversal? #HZupdates
#Oil #WTI could be about to embark on final decline towards ~20 USD #HZupdates
Read 5 tweets
1/11 on DUCs:

Common view suggests that, even without higher rig counts, lower 48 production of 8.5 mb/d can grow this year by running down drilled but uncompleted wells - or DUCs - inventories of more than 8,000 wells.
2/11 What are DUCs?

DUCs are the result of modern division of labour. A baseload inventory of DUCs therefore will always be present due to the scheduling of proppants, water, frac crews and other requirements.
3/11 More DUCs?

Recently, the ratio of DUC wells to completions has been rising. Producers build DUC inventories in low price environments—such as the weak Midland price environment of H2 18 related to pipeline constraints—and complete them at more attractive prices later. #oott
Read 12 tweets
1/13 On oil & oil equity prices:

So why does oil and oil equities underperform the S&P and NASDAQ in 2019 by a wide margin? #OOTT #brent #WTI #oilprice
2/13 As shown by Crescat Capital, this is a growth/ETF/momentum market which left commodities at 50 year relative historical lows! @crescatkevin @TaviCosta
3/13 So how do oil prices format?

Short term, spot prices #trade around inventory levels.

However, it is hard for #Brent and oil equities to go up on declining inventories while demand/macro weakens (macro outlook uncertain). #OOTT #WTI @HFI_Research
Read 13 tweets
Dear all 🙂Hope you enjoy the weekend! We are still in the Twilight Zone. Despite continued deteriorating economic fundamentals across the globe, US stock market continues to rally. But for how long...? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Indicators and signals across the globe continue to suggest economic slowdown - which slowly but surely spreads to all geographical regions and industries. It is my firm belief, that US will not decouple and US #equities will realize this at some point #HZupdates
#WTI sends clear signal from major Ending Diagonal. We may rally further in wave (B) - but soon we will see a reversal, which will send #Oil towards its LT-target of <20USD #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Starting a #thread on #AssamFloods #Kaziranga with this first rescue of a hog deer @action4ifaw @vivek4wild
Follow this thread for more updates on #wildliferescue over the coming days. +
As floodwaters enter fringe villages of #Kaziranga and people move out, #wildlife needs higher ground to be safe. This is where we come in to rescue animals displaced or injured by #AssamFloods with #AssamForestDepartment and @action4ifaw
@vivek4wild @AzzedineTDownes +
Fleeing deer caught on camera by Rabin Sharma depict the state of #wildlife in most parts of #Kaziranga that is expected to go under water by tomorrow #AssamFloods
@action4ifaw @vivek4wild @AzzedineTDownes
Read 36 tweets
#WTI price action towards $58,25 following #OPEC+ meeting #OOTT
#OPEC #OOTT #WTI price went up 5 minutes after scheduled meeting at 13:00 before moving towards $58,25 with a 5 moves down.
If we consider #OPEC posture, $58,75 should have provided support imho. But it didn't. The fall retraced 0.618 Fibo
Read 19 tweets
Last week in markets was truly exciting! Some important signals were provided - which sets us up for some truly great trades 😀Before all leaves FinTwit to relax and enjoy during Christmas - I will provide you with some #HZupdates. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD has been showing a lot of weakness. The LT-perspective is same as it has been for a very long time. Target of ~0.91 to be reached some time during 2019. Coming decline will bring about massive capitulation #HZupdates
#EURUSD - I have had 2 scenarios for how price will develop coming days/weeks. This scenario seems to hold most credibility. We could see small bounce next week - but soon EURUSD will crash in a strong wave lower. Great opportunity to go short is closing in #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hi all 😀Ready for some #HZupdates? I have had some busy weeks - however, I expect to post more regularly soon again. I'm also spending more time on my Whatsapp list for subscribers. Some great trades ahead. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD No changes to LT-view. We are on the path towards 0.91. I do expect a bounce in EURUSD, before a crash will set in #HZupdates
#EURUSD Following the bounce, the decline will be forceful - comparable to the decline in 2014-15 in steepness. One small bounce on the way towards 0.91 will be wave 4 #HZupdates
Read 15 tweets
#EURUSD rally is coming! I have been calling for this for few weeks, and we are getting closer. I expected it to begin >1.130. After breaker this level, I however think, we will see another low in EUR before the pair takes off. Hence, weakness (initially) before rally #HZupdates
Callings of crash in #EURUSD now. I have been of opinion, that we will see significant rally first taking us much higher than most traders anticipate. The rally is the last wave in wave 2. The last chance to get out before the EUR begins crash towards LT-target of 0.91 #HZupdates
Like EUR, #Gold #XAUUSD will also crash. However, we are about to set out for significant rally, which will bring Bulls back out with claims of USD 1500+. This will not be the case and when Gold tops, the decline will be strong. I have updated my LT-target to 750 USD #HZupdates
Read 11 tweets

404 - barrel bottom not found
$54 triggers #OPEC #FOMO 💩

Read 4 tweets
THREAD: 1/ Alberta's Economy - How we got to now. #ableg #abgov #Alberta
2/ Forget your idealizations about Peter Lougheed. He was a great man. This story begins in the late 1990's with the Federal Liberals under Jean Chretien and his Minister of Natural Resources, Anne Mclennan.…
3/ Anne Mclellan (@DalChancellor) likely had a greater impact on the trajectory of Alberta's Economic prosperity than any other politician in history. OK, maybe we'll place her next to Saint Ralph Klein, God Rest His Soul.
Read 41 tweets

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