1/ My hypotheses regarding #CrimeanBridge: This isn't a track-planted bomb as Russian propaganda says. This isn't an SBU operation as the Ukrainian media claim. This isn't a boat-planted bomb delivered under the bridge. Most signs of a precise strike by a powerful missile.
2/ Russia will never admit that Ukraine's military blew up Putin's precious bridge. They keep the narrative that Ukraine can't do anything. That's why Rus. propaganda claims that it was just a car bomb like a random terroristic suicidal act that happens in Russia sometimes.
3/ This isn't a @ServiceSsu operation as the Ukrainian media claim. SBU is still weak & full of Russian moles, so it barely can do the primary work of finding spies. It's not their primary job. There are other units more capable like the entire SpecOp forces inside the UAF.
4/ Today is October 8th, and I'd remind you that the US Lend-Lease program started on October 1st. #Ukraine may begin getting something interesting from the vast US arsenal of weapons. For example, top-notch attack drones and precise cruise missiles that made this strike possible
5/ This photo of the collapsed bridge section confirms my morning hypothesis about the missile strike.
6/ Most likely #Ukraine destroyed #CrimeanBridge by an ATACMS missile fired by M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS from the recently liberated areas in #Kherson province. Most likely this was an M57 missile: a range up to 300 km, a 500 lb warhead, and an accuracy 9 m (30 ft) CEP.
7/ The retired US Navy SEAL made the same conclusion.
"The storages [of Russian trains with tactical #nuclear missiles] - about 12 of them - are located behind the Ural. If any such train will start moving from there, the western intel will know immediatelly," said Ukr. military expert Oleg Zhdanov.
[2] "Russia has 2 types of #nuclear trains developed in the USSR. The first type is a ballistic launcher with a rocket that consists of 7 railway cars camouflaged as refrigerators or passenger cars. There is such a division in RAF located in Nizhniy Tagil city," said Mr. Zhdanov.
[3] Acc. to Mr. Zhdanov, a minimal range of that train-based nuclear missile is 5,000-6,000 km. And this is an absurd to move such a train closer to #Ukraine. If Russia would want to make a nuclear strike on Ukraine, it can do it from the Nizhniy Tagil train storage area.
Everybody knows Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine, 4-star General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. But I'd like you to pay attention to another key person contributing to battlefield successes: 3-star General Olexander Syrskiy who's on a photo from liberated #Lyman [Thread⬇️]
[2] A few weeks ago, the Russian military launched PsyOp+InfoOp to discredit Gen. Syrskiy. They disseminated fakes about his conflict with Zaluzhniy. One top Ukr. journalist, the Censor website editor Yurii Butusov (useful idiot) joined the PsyOp but it was quickly neutralized.
[3] The Russian PsyOp against Gen. Syrskiy proved that he currently does something extraordinary again on the battlefield. Why am I sure about it? Because he (then Maj. Gen.) helped me to survive with my battalion exiting the encirclement at Debaltseve in February 2015.
Today, a #Ukrainian volunteer medic Yulia Paevska who spent 3 months in Russian captivity after the defense of #Mariupol delivered devastating testimony before US lawmakers in Washington DC, recounting her experiences of torture, death, and terror. Photo by Ukr. Amb. @OMarkarova.
Today, the Rus. startegic bombers Tu-95 from outside of Ukr. airspace targeted Kryviy Rih city with 3-6 cruise missiles X-101. Allegedly, a damb & pump station of Karachun resevior on #Ingulets river was ruined, water rushed into the lower city, water supply partially disrupted.
[2] The water level in #Ingulets river in Kryvyi Rih city is currently raising. The reason for this Rus. attack is to ruin (with the flow of water from Karachun reservior) those Ukr. pontoon bridges across #Ingulets to stop supplies for the counteroffensive in #Kherson prov-ce.
[3] One more video from Kryvyi Rih city where the #Ingulets river is currently flooding due to Russian missile attack on the damb of the Karachun reservior and the water pumping station that supplies the lower part of the city.
Since the start of the counteroffensive, I face rudeness, arrogance, and insults from some of followers (i.e. with Ukrainian & NAFO IDs) in comments & PMs. Plus, many from Russia rushed to follow me. I don't take insults personally. But someone isn't happy that Ukraine is winning
[2] To insult me ppl tweeted and messaged that 1) my hair is gray, 2) my English sucks, 3) my analysis is too simple & thus not useful, 4) I am another Trent Telenko (Who is that?), 5) I tweet smth to click-bite & get more followers.
#Ukraine confirmed that it struck the Russian air bases on the occupied #Crimean peninsula. This is an element of the victorious war strategy described a bit by the UAF Chief Commander Gen. Zaluzhniy in his article published today by @UKRINFORM [Thread⬇️] ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/356…
[2] Gen. Zaluzhniy's article is a semi-academic analysis of chances & opportunities for the enemy & the UAF for the 2013 bcs - as he says - "there're all reasons to think that it [war] will go behind the calendar limits of 2022".
[3] Gen. Zaluzhniy emphasises on the need for "several consecutive, and ideally simultaneous counteroffensives" during 2023. He also assumes that 2023, not 2022 (as many hope) has a chance to be a transformational year when the UAF may get an advantage over the RAF.