Our usual "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's Opinion, The Bull's Opinion, Our Opinion."
To learn more, read our newsletter, coming out tomorrow at noon.
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•High inflation, and high dollar
•Rising Interest rates
•Recession
•Geopolitical tensions
•Technical destruction of index charts
•Negative $Gamma regime
•VIX and VVIX uptrend
•Island reversal pattern
•Commodities are down
•Oil is down
•Extreme readings on many sentiment/broad indicators
• $SPX and $QQQ sitting in the 200WDMA
•Weekly bullish inverted hammer candle (all indices)
•Some indicators show positive divergence
•FAANG is holding
$SPY
NEXT WEEK
Our take:
•Expecting bounce Monday or Tueday
•Lows will hold until CPI
•CPI will be at the helm this week
•A bounce from Sept lows will be strong
•Break below Sept lows will be followed by a big move
•Earnings may help float the market
•High inflation, and high dollar
•Rising Interest rates
•Recession
•Geopolitical tensions
•Technical destruction of index charts
•Negative $Gamma regime
•Bearish weekly candles
•Violation of June lows
•Commodities are down
•Oil is down
•Extreme readings on many sentiment/breadth indicators
• $VIX Buy-SPX signal is alive and well
• #VIX and $VVIX are back below resistance
•Positive divergences in breadth and vol
•High inflation, dollar, and Interest rates
•Recession
•Geopolitical tensions
•Technical destruction of index charts
•Negative $Gamma regime
•Bearish weekly candles
• $VIX & $VVIX are alive and kicking
•Dealers cut a big chunk of their longs
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Friday's bullish hammer candle
•Extremely low readings in several indicators
•Extreme equity put buying
•Indices are at important regression support
•Commodities are down
•Oil's down
Once it hits the +3 stdev line (if it does) it should experience a Mean Reversion (again) now at 105.22.
The momentum indicator is posted on Tradingview: Enio_LR_SlopeMLC, it measures the slope of the channel. It is set to 14 days to assess whether the momentum is up or down..🧵
...in the short term
When it crosses below zero (red line) the channel has negative momentum
•High inflation and high dollar
•Rising interest rates
•Geopolitical tensions
•Indexes falling on high volume
•Bearish daily candles
•Indices rejected from their 200, 20 and 50DMAs
•VIX is above 20, 50 & 200DMA
•Neg Gamma regime
$SPX $ES $SPY
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Indices are sitting at important Fib level
•Indices hold above support
•Commodities are down
•Dealers remain net long positions
•Some leader stocks are holding
•GDPnow indicator is up