An extremely important point on the current situation... Before September, the war against #Ukraine was a personal matter for #Putin in alliance with marginal, peripheral radical elites who had long been waiting for it but had no real influence on anything.
The rest of the elites, some with momentum, others with pragmatic enthusiasm, followed Putin out of desperation (which is different for everyone, but in essence it is the same).
Now, things are changing.
Putin's war plan to squeeze Ukraine is failing (apart from Putin himself, no one seems to believe in it anymore), there is a counter-offensive, the Crimean bridge has been undermined, the troops are exhausted and few in number, mobilization is faltering and people are resisting.
Since late summer and early autumn, for the first time tremendous pressure has started to form on the president to move to aggressive action and large-scale bombing.
The fear of defeat is so strong, especially for those who are now fully immersed in this military adventure, that Putin's indecisiveness with his logic of "we haven't started anything yet" and "restrained tactics have paid off" has become a problem.
As of today we can say that Putin has been persuaded to move to a more aggressive line. This is in line with his understanding of the situation, and this understanding has shifted. But the further it goes, the worse it gets - there is no turning back. Now there is only forward.
Putin is becoming a hostage of this situation and if he hesitates next time, it may cause genuine irritation on the part of those who are now invested in a war that will end in victory.
Things are developing in such a way that Putin's initiative is weakening and he is becoming more dependent on circumstances and those who are trying to bring him this 'victory'.
This, again, does not mean that there will be a coup or an anti-Putin uprising by someone from his entourage, but it is a new process that will be stretched over time and which will slowly erode Putin's authority and narrow the margin of his ability to manoeuvre.
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