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Napalm Profile picture
@Napalm_1_
Oct 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Here my value/potential simulation of URNM by only using 50% (conservative approach) of EV/lb values of February 2007 on all URNM holdings +taking 1 rebalancing in March 2023 into account.
In 3 tweets

Result:2.7x from 66.9USD/sh Friday
$URA & $URNM 🚀imo
#uranium
(1/3) - part1 ImageImage
$URA & $URNM
#uranium
(2/3) - part2 ImageImageImage
$URA & $URNM
#uranium #commodities
(3/3) - part3
Note: important source of data: John Quakes
This isn’t financial advice. Do your own DD before investing
Cheers ImageImageImage
Following previous 3 tweets with my value/potential simulation of $URNM, keep in mind that the projected additional #uranium production of many underlying companies in that simulation will only happen if the U3O8 price gets significantly higher than today
$U.UN $URA

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More from @Napalm_1_

Napalm Profile picture
May 31, 2023
Denison Mines $DNN $DML share price today represents a valuation of only~3.92USD/lb U3O8 DNN has in resources today compared to EV USD/lb valuation a couple companies had in February2007 (when #uranium spotprice was ~75USD/lb):
DNN: 21.42USD/lb= 5x
$PDN: 23.04
$FSY: 16.02
(1/5)
Global Atomic $GLO (building 5Mlb/y DASA mine with possibility to 2x planned production if right price is paid,produce #uranium early2025 & signing contracts) share today represents valuation of only 1.26USD/lb U3O8🤣compared to PDN EV USD/lb in February 2007 of 23.04 =18x
(2/5)
Am I pretending $GLO will do 18x from share price today? No! But GLO is stupidly cheap today. Imo 10x from here by 2025/2026 is possibility.
GLO has higher grades than PDN
GLO is also about to increase their #uranium resources and already created JV with government
(3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Napalm Profile picture
May 30, 2023
#uranium is consumed each year, while #gold is stored in more &more bars,coins & jewellery since centuries.

=Gold stockpile has been growing since centuries,while the uranium stockpile has been decreasing since early 2018 and reached critical low levels now

(1/8)
#commodities
#gold is for protection against value loss of fiat money.

So are all hard assets in LT, with that difference that other hard assets have a use / are consumed in society, while gold not really.
#oil, #uranium…need replacement bc they are consumed,gold not.

(2/8)
#commodities
Think about it.
#oil, #uranium are used to create energy for💡,heating,transport,industry,… & when it has been used, you need to replace it with new oil & uranium (also see comment about difference between oil & uranium)
#gold on the other hand…(next post)

(3/8)
#commodities
Read 8 tweets
Napalm Profile picture
Jan 10, 2023
#uranium spotmarket is very small market bc most of uranium deliveries go through LT contracts! Today utilities signing LT contracts with deliveries starting in 2025 & beyond.
Spotmarket for utilities & enrichers is mainly for adjustments in U3O8 needs
(1/8)
$YCA $FTSE $U.UN
Well, now a major adjustment is coming (SWU -> conversion -> additional short term U3O8 needs). You can’t overfeed (use more U3O8 for production of 1 enriched uranium product) in 2023/2024 with contracted deliveries of #uranium mined in 2025
(2/8)
$YCA $FTSE $U.UN
=> You need additional uranium deliverable in 2023 (restart Converdyn conversion facility in 2023) to be able to overfeed centrifuges in 2024.
At least a part of the add 22Mlb lb #uranium needs for overfeeding will come from spotbuying.
(3/8)
$YCA #FTSE $U.UN $URNM $URA
Read 9 tweets
Napalm Profile picture
Oct 19, 2022
Utility:Dear producer,could you restart your production to sell us your #uranium at 50USD/lb so that we can extend our operations
Producer:I need 75+USD/lb to make a profit, labour &material cost went up 15%
Utility:Please,it’s urgent.
Producer:NO,this isn’t charity!
-> $U.UN 🚀
Can $URG $UEC $UUUU US assets of $CCJ,… make profit if they sell #uranium at 50USD/lb? NO
Will they restart those prod for 55USD/lb? NO
URG has 1st supply contract 200,000lb/y starting 2H2023,but has >300,000lb inventory => can postpone prod start.
Same for UUUU, UEC,…
(2/n)
$UUUU has ~120,000lb #uranium prod from Monazite Sand process into RE Carbonate, & has >750,000lb U3O8 inventory=> can postpone prod start
$UEC has ~2Mlbs U3O8 inventory today from 5Mlbs bought (~3Mlbs delivered to UEC between today & 2026)=> can postpone prod start
(3/n)
$U.UN
Read 6 tweets
Napalm Profile picture
Apr 28, 2022
Facts=facts.There can be many reasons for US utility #uranium inventory being at 16months of consumption on average &EU utility inventories at 2y of consumption.They are too low &they can’t run reactors without it,no room to consume more inventory—>EUP & UF6 restocking now!(1/7) ImageImage
&where are they going to get more #U3O8 in SHORT TERM?
By consuming more #uranium inventory while having lost backing of carrytraders,US & EU utilities have cornered themself. $DNN $UUUU $URG $UEC $BOE,you are about to have many calls from utilities for your U3O8 stockpile (2/7) ImageImage
80$/lb isn’t even an #uranium price driven by speculation anymore! Due to much higher working cost prices, 80$/lb became the new 60$/lb. 80$/lb is the new price needed by higher production cost producers to make a profit now!
(3/7) #U3O8 $URNM $YCA $U.UN
Read 10 tweets
Napalm Profile picture
Feb 10, 2022
First, utilities will contract as much as possible with the big producers: Kazatomprom, Cameco, Orano, Navoi Mining, Uranium One. And they will try to diversify over different producers & different regions for security of supply reasons. (1/4) #uranium #U3O8 $URNM #SPUT
The last #uranium pounds available for sale from those big producers will be contracted at higher prices than the first pounds bought from them. (2/4) #U3O8 #SPUT $URNM
Second, utilities will look for additional #uranium lbs from tier2 producers like Paladin Energy ( $PDN.AX ), $URG, $UUUU, ( $PENN.AX is an exception,they already have LT contracts)... & well advanced developers (Global Atomic ( $GLO.TO $GLATF ), $DNN, $VMY.AX, ...) (3/4) #U3O8
Read 5 tweets

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