Today's Eurasia Club luncheon seminar is with @FletcherSchool #FletcherProf @dandrezner. Follow us for more updates from the session and Dr. Drezner's insights on the Russia-Ukraine war.
Also, Dr. Drezner's expert analysis: danieldrezner.substack.com
Also, Dr. Drezner's expert analysis: danieldrezner.substack.com
"What is striking is that the Chinese by and large have adhered to Western sanctions on #Russia. They have not sent high-end consumer goods to Russia. China needs western markets:" @dandrezner @FletcherSchool
"In recent weeks, Ukraine launched twin offenses in south and east and took #Russia by surprise and the latter lost over 4000 sq kms and stands to lose more. In response, Putin ordered partial mobilization and annexed territories:" @dandrezner
Reasons why #Putin is taking current actions: @dandrezner
1. The biggest source of power for Putin was his reputation which has been obliterated in the last eight months.
2. Russia does not have forces to send into the Baltic at this point.
1. The biggest source of power for Putin was his reputation which has been obliterated in the last eight months.
2. Russia does not have forces to send into the Baltic at this point.
3. Local domestic situation has been precarious and #Putin is facing domestic discontent not just from the Russian people but the military as well. There was criticism on national television as well:" Drezner @FletcherSchool
"Putin is a procrastinator. He should have done partial mobilization by spring or May. Now he is stuck in a situation where he has no choice. In the short term, Ukraine will continue will win on the battlefield:" @dandrezner @FletcherSchool
"This is not a situation where you back down due to Russia's threat to the use of nuclear weapons. Other countries will resolve to use test launches instead of re-framing the conventional war as futile due to subsequent developments:" Drezner.
"Putin actually believes Ukraine is part of Russia and wants to dismantle the regime. Putin's negotiating position is for Ukraine to accept all four annexations, and annexation of Crimea before kickstarting any conversation, which is not a negotiation:" @dandrezner
"It is clear that Ukrainians were able to resist any form of cyber attack due to Western intelligence and their own preparations. They have been subjected to cyber attacks for years:" Dr. Drezner at Eurasia luncheon. @FletcherSchool
"If a nuclear attack happens, it is a game-changer. A missile attack on civilians is a suggestion that a nuclear attack is a long-way off:" Dr. Drezner @FletcherSchool
"Goal should be to weaken #Russia in #Ukraine. Even if it leaves Ukraine, it will be the largest power geographically and also an energy behemoth. Russia is not going anywhere. Russia does not face an existential threat:" @dandrezner @FletcherSchool.
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