The unwinding of @budget2020 continues. The situation demands the whole package to go, not just bits here & there. The creeping U-turn just encourages MPs & others to demand more. And it is unlikely that the markets will respond well to the uncertainty created by slow change.
Will the reversal of the Corporation Tax reduction effect growth? This question is difficult to answer because it involves comparing anticipation in 3 periods, before @budget2022, up until now, & after the reversion.
However, what stands out is the volatility of policymaking, which damages govt credibility & is likely to lower expectations for investment and lower economic growth.
The original ⬆️ in Corporation Tax was unlikely to have much effect on growth: 1. The rise merely brings the UK into line with other OECD economies. 2. Evidence on the relationship between the tax & growth is mixed. 3. Any growth that might result will not be green growth.
#TheGrowthPlan, which is yet to be disclosed in detail, is holed below the water already. The govt incompetence has damaged investor confidence, weakened likely investment growth, & therefore reduced economic growth. #PostTruthEconomics
Natural tranquility in Scotland Image
The Whitehall farce continues. While I was away in Scotland, the #TheGrowthPlan & #budget2022 continue to be shredded by expectations of market turmoil tomorrow. Hunt as a new Chancellor, but also the shadow PM? One item after another scrapped from the budget. New fiscal rules?

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More from @terry_barker21

Mar 22
Keynes is right in questioning this inconsistency in govt attitudes to spending in war&peace. Govts make the ideological pursuit of controlling public debt in a sovereign state, their policy aim. This is misconceived.
Government should pursue achievement of a balance between 1) full use of available resources and 2) price inflation in a basket of goods and services serving basic needs, broadly defined.
They should use a mix of regulation, fiscal and monetary policies in packages designed to be equitable, efficient, and most importantly. Effective in achieving #NetZero .
Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
We have arrived in the mountains. After a journey to Cannes, Nice, Toulon, Aix, Nimes, Arles, Lyon, starting in Paris, Gare de Lyon. Over two days & nights. Here at last. TGV staff made multiple errors, cock-ups, mess-ups, mistakes, you name it. We are to be fined for their……
The oddeysey began in UK on a rail strike day. We chose to travel exclusively by rail&foot, successfully in that regard. Random chance, love, laughter, human interaction, sympathy, much humour, dancing, 20 hours on trains acros La France. We were overwhelmed.
By a prolonged sunscape with clouds merging formingly to create rain and wind afar. Speeding by Van Gogh country in a TGV.… Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 13
We do. It’s government that is responsible. Failed, failing, and downright corrupt governments, led by the @Conservatives for the last 12 or so years, becoming increasingly smug, entitled and corrupt, in the pay of foreign spymasters and fraudsters. Destroying the country.……
We’ve never had it so bad.
In my lifetime, never have I been shot at in the street, never have I experienced lawlessness on such a scale, anywhere! Or seen it on TV news. Or known such a govt as that of smug Cameron, dancing May, liar @Boris, 🍒🦊😂😐Truss, and now PM Sunak the banker. The country has gone……
Read 4 tweets
Mar 13
Too true. The #SiliconValleyBank collapse is another confirmation & deepening of the #SecondGFC. Another straw in the global financial hurricane. We are seeing an acceleration of major bankruptcies in #Crypto, now #Tech. The danger is #Contagion. Do the banks have it covered? No
How can the banks, the Central Banks, the retail banks, Barclays Execution, manage a global crisis, without having sovereign power? They could not. They need to take over governments via threat & bullying, as they did in the #GFC financial crisis in the USA and the UK in 2008.
Bankers saved banks & the bankers in trouble, because they captured the USA Govt under Bush. It was shocking and unprecedented, but they justified themselves via PR and tame, greedy, or cowardly journalists, as “too big to fail”. The rest of us can fail & suffer, but not them.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 11
This is so wrong, so @Conservatives secret City-led policy to led the rich off the hook, whilst the rest of us PAYE or take our reduced benefits, while *they* swan off to their yachts, islands and retreats in the sun What about #NetZero ?
So prosecutions of tax evaders (& avoiders, if actually criminal) have dropped sharply in the @Boris years. No surprise - #Brexit was also about these crimes. What about #HMRC being properly funded to collect revenues when it pays the govt to do so?
Maybe is is because the EU is considering a #TobinTax ? That would cut the @cityoflondon to an appropriate size if it were set at an appropriate rate. One can but hope that the @OECD take it up as a revenue earner.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 5
A startling fact:
In the IPCC AR3 Working Group III 2001 report on "Mitigation," Chapter 3 titled "Technological and Economic Potential of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction," does include a footnote related to the use of General Equilibrium models by the US government.
The footnote states:
"One prominent example of a disaggregated model is the NEMS model used by US government agencies. However, NEMS and many other models currently in use omit some technologies, such as electric and hybrid vehicles,
or may not model technological changes fully, thus posing limitations for long-term technological analysis (APEC, 2000; Laitner and Brown, 2001)."
Read 6 tweets

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