A few thoughts about the White House's claim that several OPEC nations communicated to Washington "privately that they also disagreed with the Saudi decision [to cut oil production], but felt coerced to support Saudi’s direction" #OOTT 1/6
Over the last three years, we have witnessed at least two instances when OPEC+ nations disagreed with Saudi Arabia, and were willing to have a very public fight about it (Mexico in April 2020, and UAE in July 2021). We saw nothing of that sort this time | #OOTT 2/6
The OPEC+ meeting in Vienna was very short, suggesting that ministers had already received instructions for a deal from their capitals, and everyone was onboard. If anyone disagreed, it didn't disagree so much as to have a fight. That suggests internal consensus | #OOTT 3/6
Did *everyone* inside OPEC+ think that cutting oil production so much at that particular time was wise? No; I know of some OPEC+ delegates who thought it wasn't a great idea. But also, and this is absolutely key, the didn't mind it terribly, and were happy to go along | #OOTT 4/6
Did the US hear some voices disagreeing with the Saudis? Most likely. But remember: inside OPEC+, it's easy to hide and deflect blame to Riyadh. "We don't want to, but the Saudis want..." For some, it has been - and remains - a convenient way to play it both ways | #OOTT 5/6
If the White House heard correctly, why those countries decided to go along with the Saudis? Because the US doesn't have any real friends inside OPEC+. Some of those 'friends' tell Washington what it wants to hear, but aren't prepared to do what it needs from them | #OOTT 6/6
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