Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 16 14 tweets 9 min read
#ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNOW update THREAD (ongoing coverage)

While Tropical Storm #Karl is finished, the #ExtremeWeather event associated with #HurricaneJulia and #TSKarl is not yet over.
In the animation above you can see the end of #TSKarl #Karl as it, like its parent storm #HurricaneJulia was pushed through the Tehuantepec wind gap into the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific.
This animation pics up the story over southern Mexico's Pacific coast this afternoon and evening and shows several convective bursts over land. The one at the end on the bottom left hand side is directly over Acapulco.
Acapulco has been experiencing spectacular flooding for the past five days. And it looks like they are getting some more now. [Twitter Search link for coverage >> twitter.com/search?q=%23ac…]
This animation shows the latest convective burst over the city which appears to be be too recent to account for the events seen in the tweet above. But this won't help.

And there is potentially something much worse heading #Acapulco #Mexico's way..
A third Tehuantepec Wind Gap event involving significant amounts of atmospheric water is forecast to begin in roughly 48 hours - a week after the event that ended #HurricaneJulia October 11th.

& It is forecast to result in 2 new Pacific Cyclones.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1579807…
This view from the same model run shows the cause of this third #TehuantepecWindGap event - which is the same as that for the events that ended #HurricaneJuliua and #TSKarl - a northerly dry air arctic sourced blast.
In this simulation it looks as if the smaller cyclonic vortex closer to the Mexico Coast is responsible for making the larger hurricane suddenly turn right and make a landfall on the South Mexico Coast.

The result will be extreme winds and heavy rains over Mexico into Sth Texas.
What happens next in the GFS3 Simulation is possibly even worse - albeit completely dependant on the consequences of the 3rd Tehuantepec Wind Gap outcome resulting in the Pacific Hurricane turning right over Mexico - possibly over Mexico City.
And it includes a 4th #TehuantepecWindGap event - and the creation of yet another Pacific Hurricane - and flooding in Texas.
In ^^ the PWAT animation you can see the initiation of a tropical atmospheric river- a strong one - led by transit of the hurricane over Mexico.

Below is GFS Forecast for 6hrly rainfall totals from 22nd to 26th October.

[Note: Qualifications earlier r.e. cyclone formation]
Here you can see what is happening over the United States thrroughout the 16 period of this simulation forecast. From before the formation of Pacific Hurricane through to the presentation of the atmospheric river which it helps form.
And here you can see the total forecast rains expected from this over 16 days in the US. And 10 days in Mexico.
/ends

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(Ongoing #ExtremeWeather event - coverage will continue)

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More from @althecat

Oct 18
Presently a Cat 2 Typhoon #Nesat/#NenengPH is another massive late season storm forecast to make landfall on Oct 20th in the Gulf of Tonkin south of Hanoi and weaken to a Tropical Storm before doing so. the South China Island of Hainan will likely receive the worst of the storm. Image
Unfortunately the @zoom_earth Hinmawari Satellite imagery is not available. But from the weather radar data we can see that intense rain bands are now coming ashore on the east coast of Hainan, possibly accompanied by hurricane force winds. Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 18
[#CentralAmerica #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNOW update THREAD (ongoing coverage - initiated October 2 - storms #Julia #Karl]

With #Karl now dissapated the next disturbance has now been designated by @NHC_Atlantic. ImageImageImage
The situation remains complex and unpredictable with many significant variables at play which could alter the outcome. The latest complete GFS run shows the next hurricane landfalling in Mexico 24 Oct. & remnants forming into a Gulf cyclone on 26 Oct.
The latest GFS run (incomplete) does not see the storm reforming into a tropical storm in the Gulf, but the synoptic scenario here - with this storm forming and crossing Mexico has been fairly stable for some time - as indicated in previous #KARL #TSKarl updates.
Read 14 tweets
Oct 18
[#ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow coverage initiation THREAD].
The next potentially devastating northern hemisphere hurrricane candidate #92B has now been designated. ImageImageImageImage
The potential new storm - which is modeled to head north into the Bay of Bengal in coming days and make - has been in global simulation models for several days. This is the latest GFS3 IWVT model run.
#Invest92b #92b GFS3 Model 16 day forecast of precipititable water (PWAT)

With a series of West Pacific tropical storms & typhoons - including #NenengPH [which you can see arriving in Vietnam shortly on upper right] - the Nth. Indian ocean is flooded with water vapour.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 17
With respect, the obstacle to peace is not Eritrean forces who have now withdrawn to Badme and Humera if they were ever in Tigray. The obstacle is TPLF and that is who @antonioguterres ought to be addressing the GoE is ready for a ceasefire and talks.
It is unfortunate that the UNSG has chosen, presumably for political reasons to repeat the TPLF’s age old propaganda talking point, and that as a result 100 million plus Ethiopians will likely see this statement as a cop-out.
This is true. But the obstacle to peace talks has always been the TPLF, who started this war and whose infiltration of and coddling by UN, US and EU diplomats has resulted in their refusing to engage in a peace process for very nearly two years.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 16
No the IC does not have a choice to make. You have a choice to make. Whether to sue for peace or not. Unfortunately this evenings statement is unclear.

This statement clearly undermines what you said in the previous statement. Which was different.

You need to make up your mind. Image
To spell this out.

"The IC has a choice to make"

&

"We also call on the IC to...."

Are not the same. Words matter. Also the party you are negotiating with is not the IC. It is the legitimate democratically elected and constituted Govt. of Ethiopia.
The assumption that anyone with a clue about this war and TPLF will make from this dissembling is:You are on the threshold of being defeated and you are yet again seeking someone to rescue you.

This will not happen. What can happen is a cessation of hostilities & talks.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 16
#ExremeWeather #ClimateChange continuing event coverage initiation.

Vietnam has just seen landfall of a huge Tropical Storm - and now three more cyclones are forecast to follow the same path. The first being #Nemeng. Another slow wet giant storm. Image
Yesterday Typhoon #Sonca made landfall in Vietnam as a Tropical Storm - the 25th named storm of 2022. #Sonca was a huge slow moving wet behemoth like #Ian and #Julia (ATL). This characteristic has been a pattern with many post equinox nth. hemisphere storms. Image
#Sonca has also reportedly caused 4 fatalities already - but the event has only just finished.
Read 8 tweets

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