[#ExtremeWeather#ClimateChangeNow coverage initiation THREAD].
The next potentially devastating northern hemisphere hurrricane candidate #92B has now been designated.
The potential new storm - which is modeled to head north into the Bay of Bengal in coming days and make - has been in global simulation models for several days. This is the latest GFS3 IWVT model run.
#Invest92b#92b GFS3 Model 16 day forecast of precipititable water (PWAT)
With a series of West Pacific tropical storms & typhoons - including #NenengPH [which you can see arriving in Vietnam shortly on upper right] - the Nth. Indian ocean is flooded with water vapour.
If cyclogenesis occurs - not expected currently in the short term - the storm will likely be another large wet sprawling storm bringing rains over a very large area.
I can't yet find a #JTWC statement about the storm but this statement was issued yesterday by the @WMO 's New Delhi office.
The primary impacts of the storm will likely be felt in the North East of India and Bangladesh.
Finally in this update here is the latest GFS3 rainfall solution over 16 days which shows significant rainfall over east and southern India, Myanmar and into the mountains of Arunachal Pradesh through to November.
Presently a Cat 2 Typhoon #Nesat/#NenengPH is another massive late season storm forecast to make landfall on Oct 20th in the Gulf of Tonkin south of Hanoi and weaken to a Tropical Storm before doing so. the South China Island of Hainan will likely receive the worst of the storm.
Unfortunately the @zoom_earth Hinmawari Satellite imagery is not available. But from the weather radar data we can see that intense rain bands are now coming ashore on the east coast of Hainan, possibly accompanied by hurricane force winds.
The situation remains complex and unpredictable with many significant variables at play which could alter the outcome. The latest complete GFS run shows the next hurricane landfalling in Mexico 24 Oct. & remnants forming into a Gulf cyclone on 26 Oct.
The latest GFS run (incomplete) does not see the storm reforming into a tropical storm in the Gulf, but the synoptic scenario here - with this storm forming and crossing Mexico has been fairly stable for some time - as indicated in previous #KARL#TSKarl updates.
With respect, the obstacle to peace is not Eritrean forces who have now withdrawn to Badme and Humera if they were ever in Tigray. The obstacle is TPLF and that is who @antonioguterres ought to be addressing the GoE is ready for a ceasefire and talks.
It is unfortunate that the UNSG has chosen, presumably for political reasons to repeat the TPLF’s age old propaganda talking point, and that as a result 100 million plus Ethiopians will likely see this statement as a cop-out.
This is true. But the obstacle to peace talks has always been the TPLF, who started this war and whose infiltration of and coddling by UN, US and EU diplomats has resulted in their refusing to engage in a peace process for very nearly two years.
No the IC does not have a choice to make. You have a choice to make. Whether to sue for peace or not. Unfortunately this evenings statement is unclear.
This statement clearly undermines what you said in the previous statement. Which was different.
Are not the same. Words matter. Also the party you are negotiating with is not the IC. It is the legitimate democratically elected and constituted Govt. of Ethiopia.
The assumption that anyone with a clue about this war and TPLF will make from this dissembling is:You are on the threshold of being defeated and you are yet again seeking someone to rescue you.
This will not happen. What can happen is a cessation of hostilities & talks.
In the animation above you can see the end of #TSKarl#Karl as it, like its parent storm #HurricaneJulia was pushed through the Tehuantepec wind gap into the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific.
This animation pics up the story over southern Mexico's Pacific coast this afternoon and evening and shows several convective bursts over land. The one at the end on the bottom left hand side is directly over Acapulco.
Vietnam has just seen landfall of a huge Tropical Storm - and now three more cyclones are forecast to follow the same path. The first being #Nemeng. Another slow wet giant storm.
Yesterday Typhoon #Sonca made landfall in Vietnam as a Tropical Storm - the 25th named storm of 2022. #Sonca was a huge slow moving wet behemoth like #Ian and #Julia (ATL). This characteristic has been a pattern with many post equinox nth. hemisphere storms.
#Sonca has also reportedly caused 4 fatalities already - but the event has only just finished.