Doug Lewin Profile picture
Oct 20 16 tweets 8 min read
Two important meetings w/ implications for #txenergy this morning:

@FERC will be discussing its Winter Energy Market and Reliability Assessment at its meeting today.
#txlege #energytwitter 1/

ferc.gov/news-events/ne…
On the @PUCTX mtg agenda for 9:30 are distributed energy resources, transmission, market design, restoration of service after an outage, & the calendar for rulemakings for the remainder of the year.
Agenda & livestream below.
#txenergy 2/
adminmonitor.com/tx/puct/open_m…
Cmsr McAdams outlined some of the issues the Distributed Energy Resources task force is dealing with following the posting of a @PUCTX staff memo and an ERCOT memo in Docket 51603 here:
#txenergy #DERs
interchange.puc.texas.gov/search/filings…
A few clarifications suggested in the ERCOT memo:
(1) A DER participating in an ancillary service (A/S) does not have to build a dedicated feeder (current rules say they do) and (2) DERs can participate in A/S on curtailable circuits so long as they're in Non-spin or Reg Down
Cmsr McAdams explained that this is bc non-spin is deployed before outages & reg down is reducing output, thus if a DER is curtailed, it's ok. DERs can currently participate in responsive reserve or reg up (needed during outages) only if they're on a noncurtailable circuit.
Some technical but very important details here outlined in the ERCOT memo. Important to anyone looking to deploy aggregated distributed energy resources (ADER) in ERCOT.
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5160…
Cmsr Glotfelty points out that there only 100s of MW of distributed batteries now but there will be 1000s soon. We'll need to change the way we operate the distribution system, roll outages, segment circuits, etc. Cmsr Cobos agrees with that...
There's a discussion about how you define "distributed" and how granular ERCOT can get, especially with little visibility for ERCOT (or the PUCT) into distribution grids. Eventually, probably soon, we're going to need that visibility... #txlege #txenergy
They now turn to the staff memo which is below. More technical issues which are extremely important to implementation
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5160…
There will be questions filed in the Aggregated DER docket (51603 or 53911 or both) on Monday for "information gathering purposes." All those who work on #DERs should be looking for those. #energytwitter #txenergy
There will be a new #DER docket apparently. I'll post it once it's established. #energytwitter
Toggling back and forth to @FERC winter readiness assessment. Stark to see the rise in natgas prices. #energytwitter
Speaking of winter readiness, @RichGlickFERC says the Uri issues in Texas which caused 100s of deaths was not they didn't have enough generation capacity, they didn't have sufficient fuel & operational capacity.🎯
Feel like lots of people in Texas stil don't get that. #txlege
@RichGlickFERC also points out how much consumer pain there will be from high #natgas prices, whether from direct use of gas in homes and buildings or from reliance on gas in the power system. He asks staff if they expect US LNG capacity to grow.
Staff answers: The Plaquemines, Golden Pass, and Corpus Christi projects should increase exports by 5.8bcfd (~40% more than today).

Note LNG exports are up significantly in recent years.
Staff also notes that #natgas storage is down and will likely stay low as LNG exports increase. This increases risk of outages in the summer.

Staff says LNG exports are likely contributing to high prices.

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More from @douglewinenergy

Oct 20
FERC & NERC released their winter reliability assessment & it's not good for Texas. In a Uri-like event we would be short "by about 19.7GW," almost as much as Feb. 2021. To the suprise of few, the ERCOT grid still has major problems.
#txlege #txenergy 1/
ferc.gov/media/report-2…
"For extreme winter conditions, such as occurred during Winter Storm Uri, ERCOT indicates the need to allow for a resource derate of 11.5GW. This would reduce available resources to 64.3 GW for an extreme winter condition, which is below the extreme winter peak load of 84 GW...
"...by about 19.7 GW. During extreme winter conditions, while ERCOT can gain 1.6 GW of benefit from operational mitigations, this still leaves a shortfall of up to 18.1 GW. These above-normal winter peak load and outage conditions could result in the need to employ EEAs...
Read 7 tweets
Oct 18
ERCOT and the PUCT Chair continue to put out misleading information even while they talk about rebuilding trust with the public. They're drastically misrepresenting the costs of their changes to the market. #txlege #txenergy 1/
spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/austin/news…
For months, the Chairman of the PUC and ex interim CEO of ERCOT insisted that the market changes they have made, which they often refer to as “conservative operations," only cost $1.26. They arrived at this number by looking at only a tiny part of the changes they've made. 2/
As an example, the single biggest cost of their changes isn't included in the numbers they provided to the press. The IMM told the Board in Aug that the cost from the ORDC changes (scarcity pricing) was $2b through July. $2b over 7 months doesn't equal $1.26/household. #txlege 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 18
Meeting focused on #energyefficiency just started. Cmsr Jackson will speak in a minute. When she was introduced, Chair Lake said she would focus on EE. The agenda for the mtg is below. Discussion @ 1pm of potential rule changes to the programs. #txlege
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/3857…
In 2021, Texas' energy efficiency programs saved 775GWh at a cost of 1.5c per kWh. Average cost of energy in Texas is ~10x that amount. Unfortunately, our programs are tiny relative to other states.
The report is here: interchange.puc.texas.gov/search/documen…
#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter Image
#Energyefficiency programs in Texas are highly cost effective, saving customers $3.80 for every $1 spent in 2021.

Crazy idea, just spitballing here, but maybe we should, I don't know, do more of it? Maybe we could, dare to dream, reach the average state's savings level?
#txlege Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 1
Last night, Gov Abbott said “electricity costs in TX remain one of the lowest in the entire US & far lower than the nat'l avg.” Acc'g to @EIAgov, this is false.

In 2019, *before* Uri, Texas' residential electric bills were 7th highest in the US. Now things are worse. 1/ #txlege
Once 2021 & 2022 data is entered, we'll likely be even worse off relative to other states.

The Independent Market Monitor shows ~$4-5 billion in added costs from "conservative operations" (ORDC, RUCs, + increased reserves for full year 2022).
#energytwitter #TXGovDebate 2/
Transmission congestion, a problem festering for nearly a decade, has caused another $2.1b in consumer costs thru July (likely $3-3.5b in 2022)

Per household, all this adds $100s in costs at a time >50% of Texans are cutting back on spending bc of high home energy bills. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 29
On the @PUCTX's agenda today, dicussions of electric companies' "emergency operations plans" & "electric weather preparedness standards," which are based on 95th percentile historical weather & still do not account for extreme "tail events" (like Uri) or climate change. #txlege
Also on the agenda, ERCOT filed it's first "true-up" for the $2.9 billion in securitization charges: "This True-Up Filing reflects a need to increase Uplift Charges. Up-front costs in excessof those estimated were incurred in connection w/ the initial issuance of the... bonds."
For the $2.1 billion (Subchapter N) in "Uplift Charges" (such a delightful Orwellian use of language, the charges are "uplifted" to you! how uplifting), filing is here:
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5271…

And here for the $800m (Subchapter M), the filing is here interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5270…
Read 8 tweets
Jul 20
Demand stayed just below 80GW today. Large customer #demandresponse in the form of a rate structure called 4CP (more in this thread) helped to increase reliability and lower costs. Large customers are paid for their reductions. Small customers are not. 1/🧵
#txlege #txenergy
We won't have a reliable and affordable grid without demand flexibility. It’s possible—maybe—to white knuckle it through a summer with aging power plants at an extra cost of billions of dollars each year. But there’s a better and cheaper way...
#energytwitter 2/
To have a grid that is reliable and a market that is affordable, regulators need to figure out how to incorporate demand flexibility into market design.

*Pay people* to automatically (no action required) shift use to times when power is cheap and plentiful to reduce peaks. 3/
Read 17 tweets

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