#INDIA $IBN $INDA #NIFTYBANK. Wishing all my Indian friends a Happy Diwali. Thought it worth sharing some interesting charts on india. Firstly, for those bullish oil- India is extremely susceptible to oil prices. In addition, India equities relative to bonds are highly
Inferior today
Now interestingly, Foreigners remain super long financials (that is where the $ will come from) and $IBN, despite posting strong results yesterday, they have been sequentially flat for 2 qtrs.
Risk appetite remains super high (contrast that with the US where AAII bull bear are at record lows for some time).
And valns relative to MSCI asia usually are at a 29% premium (given better returns) but are now at a shocking 89%. Yes i get Asia and particularly China has issues and India looks attractive but tell me this is not way in the price. One of the noted bears @arabicatrader had a
Spaces event yesterday and i barely saw more than a handful of participants. Whereas some of the bullish spaces (on india) are jam packed.They don’t ring a bell at the top but this sure looks super frothy. In any case this is my words of wisdom (or stupidity) on this special day
Spaces event yesterday and I barely saw more than a handful of participants.Whereas some of the bullish spaces (on india) are jam packed.They don’t ring a bell at the top but this sure looks super frothy. In any case these are my words of wisdom (or stupidity) on this special day
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$KWEB lot of trolls out tonight with knives. Did i get my timing wrong this time-sure but $AR $PDN $BTU even $OXY were not picked at the absolute bottom either. My screaming buy tweet on $AR in feb 2020 mistimed the bottom in covid by a month & more than 50% but even from my
Albeit horrendous entry point of $1-$1.5 the stock today is up >20x in 2.5 years. Not suggesting china would ever replicate that but my sense is this Hu event was the final catharsis that investors needed to dump something that just wasn’t working. It was the final shock that
Gave people the “excuse “ to hit sell. After all what investor would knowingly want to sell China when sentiment is in the toilet and valuations are at all time lows (at one time trading close to 5x pbr and now sub 1x) and tech at a shade above 1x? People dont like to sell lows
Notice The cape for india at 29x vs china at 9x. I know that cape isnt a great timing tool but given sentiment on india is on the moon & China is on the gutter, valns dispersion immense and India potentially having a currency crisis (@TheFactFindr )as i flagged in an earlier
Tweet id bet my 2 cents that INDIA will substantially lag China’s performance over the next few years. At best INDIA Is DEAD MONEY. BEST case india substantially derates -and as @PauloMacro mentioned in an earlier tweet- first EM managers hid in china before XI blew up tech
$RIG at today’s Grant conference Darren Mauphin from Pilgrim made some points on the offshore sector. 1. This summer a couple of Offshore names asked about contract extensions at the shipyards and the shipyards said we never ever want to work with you guys again- capacity is
Going to take a hell of a long time to come back. 2 EV of the sector at peak last time was 164B (2007) today its 19b. Heck SPACEX which does nothing for u (unlike offshore which is servicing a real need like finding oil) has a higher EV than the combined Offshore sector.
Over the past 8 years 50% of the capacity has been scrapped and taken out. Capacity is essentially back to the lows seen in 2004. (It doubled 04-14 and now back down to the lows again with the -50% scrapping of capacity).
$IBN #banknifty#india This is my second part tweet on Indian banks (pls see tweet below if u missed it). We all know who the 2nd richest person in the world is right- Jeff Bezos. NOPE it’s Gautam Adani Who? Yeah exactly his cos trade at an absurd 200-400x earnings and are
Now I discussed in first Indian bank tweet that foreigners are super o/w the Indian financials. What if this guys fortune is just an immense Ponzi scheme and the banks are super exposed? I mean isnt it weird that the 2nd richest person in the world came out of nowhere? Hmmm.
Chinese equities are at 30 year support and yet sentiment is in the toilet. Contrast this with where consensus is hiding- INDIA where the RBI is behind the curve, struggling with food and energy
#india $IBN I've always seeked out opportunities where the consensus is convinced of something and things may change. My questioning nasdaq in Nov 2021 and recommending $Tqqq puts got me a lot of ire with folks saying C8888 stick to something u know about like energy and not tech
Needless to say many of my many shorts this year $arkk $tsla $aapl $snow $cvna $nvda etc have been very beneficial to a very strong year with over 1/2 my returns ytd coming from the short side ($btu making up the rest). My piece de resistance was recommending buying $aapl puts