Since people are in scenario planning mode, right now, a few tips. A 🧵 #planning #scenarios
Please don't present a base case and two strawman (or strawperson) proposals. A strawman, often misused in my experience, is a rhetorical fallacy, i.e., creating a proposal that no one would reasonably vote for, and then encouraging votes against it. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
For example, most companies create 3 scnearios: base, silly1 and silly2. Then they spend the meeting arguing why silly1 and silly2 are bad, which isn't hard, and thus we have only one good choice, the base case. All in favor, aye!
Instead, try to make 3 planning scenarios that are all valid and that you actually wrestle between choosing. That makes the exercise much more useful. The former exercise is arguably just manipulation.
Then, try to provide the metrics and indicators that would tell us which scenario we're in. That is, in six months if we see X, Y, and Z, then we're likely in someting close to scenario 2.
Additionally, I like giving scenarios clear and descriptive names whereever possible. Tap the Brakes, Full Speed Ahead, International Retrenchment, etc. Note these names are actually about our resultant plan than the external scenario driving it.
Finally, and this is super geeky, just as I like headlines based on movie titles, I love using the scenario names from the old classic, War Games, to inspire me. filmjournals.net/wargames_tacti…
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