Flights discord server (link below) has some industry pros. My thanks to AlaskaGeoPhiz (retired North slope Geoscientist) for posting his thoughts on todays news.
My initial thoughts on the RNS update are positive. We’ve learned fluid rates (flowing into temporary exploration well testing equipment) were in the thousands bbls per day, with approx. 10% frac fluid recovered and 8 to 12% oil cut.
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These fluid rates, for longer than a day or two, aren’t trivial and require adequate trucking or annular injection to dispose of. Plus sand coming out of the well will likely be caught in a sand separator and will have to be emptied to keep from filling up.
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Our “satellite spies” appear to have seen produced gas being flared. With the upcoming State of AK flaring permit meeting (extend prod testing to 9 months) it was imperative for Panr to do the RNS before testing info was discussed at the Oct 27th meeting.
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We’ve also learned Panr will be transitioning to permanent surface facilities. Having a bit of a pause during pressure buildup test and coil clean out should help get the new facilities in place and working.
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I’m sure the Alkaid 2 gravel pad is a crowded place with various activities simultaneously taking place. Any delay in getting a coil unit for horizontal clean out is probably due to the bigger NS major operators getting priority.
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What we don’t know, but Panr does, prevents some of use from definitely answering your questions. My guess is the upcoming November lease sale is the reason we haven’t seen the Alkaid 2 pilot hole and horizontal well logs and any measured poro-perm core data.
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Panr has said reservoir is better/thicker than Alkaid 1, but we don’t know by how much. Hopefully after lease sale we’ll get a Webinar with much more detail on Alkaid 2 and upcoming Winter exploration plans.
@WimalSamara@Josh_Young_1 It may very well cost him reputation too and Bison interests his investment business may find redemptions go up as investors see he is a good analyst but crappy investor. He cannot sniff out option like investments where the upside risk far, FAR outweighs the downside,
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@WimalSamara@Josh_Young_1 which is something of note in C8888’s method. Josh is not open to critical thinking beyond a basic surface level first read, red flag type stock DD. Eg: Is there high debt, yes - red flag =no invest. $rig
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@WimalSamara@Josh_Young_1 Which does not evaluate what the markets are missing. In the case of $rig in a fire sale it’s assets are worth 2x~3x Sp, so any turnaround in contracting cycle (which looks to have happened) will provide huge leverage to piers.
2/ In ‘The most important thing' by Howard Mark, he say's....Large amounts of money are not made by buying what everybody likes, they're made by buying what everybody underestimates.
3/ Disclaimer: Nothing in this Discord server is intended as investment advice. We are not your financial advisor, and this is not financial advise. Please, always do your own due diligence when it comes to investing and always take responsibility for your own choices.
I do try to remember that newbies to the PANR investment case will be viewing that case through lenses of normal exploration small cap experience. Most fail. Many management teams use the market system to extract wealth without building credible businesses
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This is the sceptical starting point for many social media O&G ‘experts’ including Josh. I was sceptical once. The PANR results will speak for themselves either successfully or not.
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Low ball, tacky FUD will damage the reputation of these ‘experts’ and history will hold them to account and their future judgement questioned.
It deserves more than a glancing read. The implications of the study allow for significant uplift in potential oil rates
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The Tarn analogous data shows that at any porosity we might encounter at TW can have a wide distribution impact on perms over 3 log scales. The implication is that as the reservoir is developed the sweet spot (course sand) will be hit giving potential of
My friend Telemachus has posted his thoughts on todays Pantheon resources news. Unmissable read. Link below to Reddit but will post the text in a thread…..warning it’s going to be long!
Theta West updip appraisal of Talitha Basin Floor Fan discovery is a success so far.
Today Pantheon dropped its latest RNS to provide details of the Theta West appraisal well logging. The following is not investment advice. But an attempt to help stakeholders interpret what the
announcement means in commercial/economic terms.
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TLDR version: Data gathered in the drilling of the Theta West well confirmed pre-drill expectations (+/- 10%) and de-risks the contingent resources of 1.2 bn bbls net to Pantheon for this accumulation.