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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Oct 30

#Russia_Sanctions: By increasing imports of household appliences from Kazakhstan and Armenia, Russia is allegedly circumventing Western sanctions. The free movement of goods within the Eurasian Union guarantees Russia a continuous supply of Western-made refrigerators, washing⤵️

machines and electric breast pumps: 1) Kazakhstan imported 3 times more refrigerators from the EU than in 2021. The export of EU-made electric breast pumps to Kazakhstan soared by around 600% and to Armenia by 3 times (despite falling birthrates of 8.4% and 4.3% respectively);⤵️

2) On the other hand, the re-export of washing machines from Kazakhstan to Russia this year is worth $7.5 million. The volume of shipped refrigerators was 10 times higher; 3) Russia is reported to be using semiconductors extracted from civilian manufacturing to supply the⤵️

Read 8 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Oct 29

#Russia: The suspension of Russia’s participation in the "grain business" was in the air. Putin himself hinted that Russia agreed to a “package deal” involving relaxation of sanctions on Russian fertilizers and agri-food products (which were never subject to Western sanctions).⤵️

Russia decided to leave the “grains deal” now for several reasons: 1) The Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Kherson continues and Russia needs to generate another new-old crisis to overshadow it. From a pure tactical perspective, Russia wants to regain some int relevance;⤵️

2) I have pointed out earlier that by leaving the “grain deal”, Russia wants to put pressure on the UN not to launch any investigation into Iranian kamikadze drones or to exclude Russia from the UN Security Council. Russia exploits the natural prioritization of ensuring global⤵️

Read 9 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Oct 29

#Armenia_Russia: PM Pashinyan continues with his pragmatic foreign policy. He has just announced the intention to approve the extension of the mandate of the Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. This is in his interests and he also throws the "hot potato" at Azerbaijan,⤵️

which should also agree to have the Russian peacekeepers in its disputed territory with Armenia. Pashinyan reiterated that Russia remains the security guarantor of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. This can only mean that Armenia opts for a compartimentalized approach towards⤵️

Russia. Where Russia is an ineffective protection of the Armenian borders against the Azeri pushes and attacks, Armenia appeals to the EU (which is preparing a civilian monitoring mission in which the staff of the EU mission in Georgia will participate). On the other hand,⤵️

Read 7 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Oct 28

#Critical_Infrastructure: The German National Strategy for Critical Infrastructure Protection dates back to 2009. It refers to two categories of infrastructure that are considered to be protected by the state: basic infrastructure and socio-economic services infrastructure.⤵️

Currently, geopolitical circumstances put the basic infrastructure - power/gas supply - in the spotlight. According to the Strategy that governs the actions of the German authorities in matters of critical infrastructure, two types of actions that endanger⤵️

German critical infrastructures can be identified: 1) “negligence”: the authorities underestimate the risks arising from the purchase of critical assets (ports, etc.) by non-democratic actors (Chinese state-owned companies);⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Oct 28

#Moldova: The energy crisis is reaching such proportions that the govt struggles to keep the situation under control (so far so good). Under these circumstances, even the fugitive oligarch Plahotniuc began planning his return to Moldovan politics. Despite being recently⤵️

sanctioned by the US, the kleptocrats are rising up to push the govt into collapse. Russian manipulations with gas exports (which have been limited by 40%) and the electrical dependence of the breakaway region have a destructive impact on the social-economic situation.⤵️

It seems more like Russia is exploiting govt weaknesses to create a fertile ground for all anti-government forces to seize their opportunity, especially given that Russia is aware that the Russia-leaning parties and leaders are more popular that the leadership of the⤵️

Read 16 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Oct 28

#Ukraine: Burden-sharing disputes are brewing between the US and the EU related to the costs of supporting Ukraine. Some thoughts: 1) This issue started to get politically inflated due to the US mid-term elections; 2) Even if the US gives more money, most of the non-military⤵️

costs of the Russian aggression against Ukraine are mainly covered by the EU and its member states (refugees, sanctions, energy costs, etc.); 3) From a political and technical point of view, the US may decide to offer Ukraine new money through bipartisan negotiations. The EU⤵️

cannot provide the same amount of assistance and with the same speed by ignoring the democratic procedures and political complexities of a total of 54 national parliaments and governments (27 member states X 2 because many governments in EU countries are run by coalitions).⤵️

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