Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 28, 2022
The situation is evolving in a positive way for #UAarmy today in the #Luhansk area / some areas well defended by Ru.
but UA still moving forward!
#UkraineMap

2/ so 14 days ago The Kraken Regiment, SOF reported that they have officially liberated the settlements of #Kyslivka & #Kotlyarivka East of Kupiansk. now Ru r reporting that they r moving today on the line just before the main defense along a small river. heading Verkhnya Duvanka

3/ or #VerkhnyaDuvanka but frankly it's hard to assess as in the area there is no much communication right now.
we have some "noises" and Ru are expressing their concerns, for sure.. but we still are far anyway from a blitz to #Pokrovske or #NyzhniaDuvanka
wait
#UkraineMap

4/ so right now we are looking at a map looking like that this one.
We have to acknowledge that Russians are doing their best in some areas like in a global zone west of #Svatove even doing some counter attacks this week in order to gain some "space" in order to "breath"..

5/ the really good news just came in tonight from different sources both Ru and Ukrainians explaining that the ongoing attacks of #AFU the direction of #Pishchane (north #Kreminna area) we have reports now that #UAarmy is almost in control of the highway !!

6/ I'm not going to post all the diff sources or sub sources, but among them, one of the best is @serhey_hayday . when he talks like that, it means things are going really "smoothly" there...
so that's a real good progress for sure.

7/ So i'm going to take an old map to make some reasonable "projections" regarding the possible outcome of such moves if it goes on in the coming days success remains.
What could happens is that #ZSU could size the high grounds west of the river going through #Svatove so we what

8/ #UAarmy could do then threatens to "pocket" (make a "cauldron" with Ru troops as far as #Raihorodka ) Ru Troops, and so like they did for #Borova, Ru can decide to withdraw all their forces back the #Krasna river.
Globally it could take couple weeks though.
and then i'll use:

9/ in other areas nothing much as usual... just waiting for Ru to come and get destroyed by defenders. not going to lie it's not fun though contrary to a lot of comments i've seen these previous weeks.
so Ru attacked in the area of #Bakhmut, #Bakhmutske, #Soledar, #Yakovlivka

10/ so i did not comment all the stupid things that happened there for the last 2 weeks bc as i said this summer about #Rubijne for example, i'm not going to comments some stupids Ru moves in a 100m street when they claim to sized a shoe shop or a condom in some subway toilets.

11/ now concerning #Bakhmut south area..
i'm not entirely sure there about the FEBA line, but what we do know is where RU are leading attacks today like in the area of #Zelenopilya but also south b near #Ivanhard and shelling hard #Klishchiivka
#UAarmy resists #UkraineMap
also

12/ there was always the plan there, to destroy with method and perseverance, incoming Ru attacks while maintaining a certain control of the defensive line. they are not in control of all the high grounds though. lack some reinforcement.
Reminder

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1576641769021706240

13/ or

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1570847611715977217

or

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1572636449819840515

so Ru are still going on there on the south of #Bakhmut and #UAarmy as it was not a priority area to conquer, lacks a bit of "punch" there to counter the Ru moves & encroachment in villages.

14/ last gen staff report
part 1&2

15/ just for the record. the "wargogo" report today

16/ special notes about Air defence units that reports this morning to have shot down 2 enemy helicopters Ka-52 and one Su-25 attack aircraft.
and destruction/attrition rate for Russian materials/troops has slow down but is still "good" and steady...

17/ as for people asking why this is not going faster in north area of #Luhansk (contrary to early September huge break through) there are several explanations but among them, to make it simple. there are 3, 4 big ones (morning report) - Also reinforcements came from new recruits

18/ to date, it has been reported that around 40k regular new Ru soldiers have been "injected" in #Ukraine in order to support the Ru offensive or main line of defenses depending on the decision of high command (lol)
about 2000 r reported to have been sent to #Kherson area.

19/ Also Wagner PC r now recruiting the worst among the worst (dangerous criminal).. and also sick with HIV /hépatite C. they have a red bracelet.
#SBU report today that they are to be ignored by Ru medics when they need to take care of wounded personal. they just let them die.

20/ novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/…

21/ the rest of the 260k "reservists/recruits that r coming to #Ukraine to fight, it has been reported by Ru MOD that they will come in diff waves starting in 2 weeks until early December...
So then we'll "witness" how the triple ratio of men will stop/freeze UKr offensive or not

22/ this coming winter is going to be very difficult, for sure, for both sides, as Putin will just try to push for a total stall and then push as much as he can for "pourparler" / negociations as he stated yesterday in his infamous/famous speech.
he knows it's a lose lose situat°

23/ As for the other front lines, there is nothing much to say right now as nothing really changed, and i'll try to resume some explanations and maps this week end about #Kherson area as it is a very particular situation there we need to talk about.