#Russia_Sanctions: By increasing imports of household appliences from Kazakhstan and Armenia, Russia is allegedly circumventing Western sanctions. The free movement of goods within the Eurasian Union guarantees Russia a continuous supply of Western-made refrigerators, washing⤵️
machines and electric breast pumps: 1) Kazakhstan imported 3 times more refrigerators from the EU than in 2021. The export of EU-made electric breast pumps to Kazakhstan soared by around 600% and to Armenia by 3 times (despite falling birthrates of 8.4% and 4.3% respectively);⤵️
2) On the other hand, the re-export of washing machines from Kazakhstan to Russia this year is worth $7.5 million. The volume of shipped refrigerators was 10 times higher; 3) Russia is reported to be using semiconductors extracted from civilian manufacturing to supply the⤵️
military sector which is in technological starvation due to sanctions. Trade figures within the Eurasian Union show that Russia is growing a dependence on imports (and re-exports) from Armenia and Kazakhstan that are not aligned with Western sanctions. It should be noted that⤵️
Russia is also using parallel imports to obtain the sanctioned goods. Even if they can apply restrictions to certain types of trade, they must justify them and still risk retaliation (embargoes, weaponization of the energy dependencies on Russia).⤵️
This leaves the EU with only one option to limit export to members of the Eurasian Union (which is a customs union) as a way to reduce sanctions evasion by Russia. This is unlikely given the growing geopolitical role the EU wants to play in building stability in the South⤵️
Caucasus. Similarly, the EU wants to build on the momentum of strengthening political dialogue with Kazakhstan, which is undergoing some political liberalization and trying to carefully manage relations with Russia, while condemning its aggression against Ukraine.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Oct 29
#Russia: The suspension of Russia’s participation in the "grain business" was in the air. Putin himself hinted that Russia agreed to a “package deal” involving relaxation of sanctions on Russian fertilizers and agri-food products (which were never subject to Western sanctions).⤵️
Russia decided to leave the “grains deal” now for several reasons: 1) The Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Kherson continues and Russia needs to generate another new-old crisis to overshadow it. From a pure tactical perspective, Russia wants to regain some int relevance;⤵️
2) I have pointed out earlier that by leaving the “grain deal”, Russia wants to put pressure on the UN not to launch any investigation into Iranian kamikadze drones or to exclude Russia from the UN Security Council. Russia exploits the natural prioritization of ensuring global⤵️
Read 13 tweets
Oct 29
#Armenia_Russia: PM Pashinyan continues with his pragmatic foreign policy. He has just announced the intention to approve the extension of the mandate of the Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. This is in his interests and he also throws the "hot potato" at Azerbaijan,⤵️
which should also agree to have the Russian peacekeepers in its disputed territory with Armenia. Pashinyan reiterated that Russia remains the security guarantor of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. This can only mean that Armenia opts for a compartimentalized approach towards⤵️
Russia. Where Russia is an ineffective protection of the Armenian borders against the Azeri pushes and attacks, Armenia appeals to the EU (which is preparing a civilian monitoring mission in which the staff of the EU mission in Georgia will participate). On the other hand,⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Oct 28
#Critical_Infrastructure: The German National Strategy for Critical Infrastructure Protection dates back to 2009. It refers to two categories of infrastructure that are considered to be protected by the state: basic infrastructure and socio-economic services infrastructure.⤵️
Currently, geopolitical circumstances put the basic infrastructure - power/gas supply - in the spotlight. According to the Strategy that governs the actions of the German authorities in matters of critical infrastructure, two types of actions that endanger⤵️
German critical infrastructures can be identified: 1) “negligence”: the authorities underestimate the risks arising from the purchase of critical assets (ports, etc.) by non-democratic actors (Chinese state-owned companies);⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Oct 28
#Russia_Sanctions: Maintenance and technical servicing of Airbus aircraft used by Russian civil aviation cannot be guaranteed at an adequate level. Airbus management has raised concerns about the safety of the aircraft used in Russia. Due to the sanctions, Airbus is not ⤵️
able to monitor and offer a service to ensure the safe use of the aircrafts of its production. In May-June, Russian airlines were disassembling the aircraft to obtain the necessary components for the operational planes.⤵️
The lack of verification and proper technical upgrading increases the risks of catastrophes. Since most flights with Russian aircraft take place within Russia, the risks are largely limited to the Russian territory and population.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 28
#Moldova: The energy crisis is reaching such proportions that the govt struggles to keep the situation under control (so far so good). Under these circumstances, even the fugitive oligarch Plahotniuc began planning his return to Moldovan politics. Despite being recently⤵️
sanctioned by the US, the kleptocrats are rising up to push the govt into collapse. Russian manipulations with gas exports (which have been limited by 40%) and the electrical dependence of the breakaway region have a destructive impact on the social-economic situation.⤵️
It seems more like Russia is exploiting govt weaknesses to create a fertile ground for all anti-government forces to seize their opportunity, especially given that Russia is aware that the Russia-leaning parties and leaders are more popular that the leadership of the⤵️
Read 16 tweets
Oct 28
#Ukraine: Burden-sharing disputes are brewing between the US and the EU related to the costs of supporting Ukraine. Some thoughts: 1) This issue started to get politically inflated due to the US mid-term elections; 2) Even if the US gives more money, most of the non-military⤵️
costs of the Russian aggression against Ukraine are mainly covered by the EU and its member states (refugees, sanctions, energy costs, etc.); 3) From a political and technical point of view, the US may decide to offer Ukraine new money through bipartisan negotiations. The EU⤵️
cannot provide the same amount of assistance and with the same speed by ignoring the democratic procedures and political complexities of a total of 54 national parliaments and governments (27 member states X 2 because many governments in EU countries are run by coalitions).⤵️
Read 5 tweets

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