Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ ok this really sucks. Red notification!
In #Kherson, Ru expand the "evacuation" zone by 15 km from the Dniepro

stated by the head of #Kherson collabs V Saldo. According to him, Ukr authorities were allegedly preparing a "massive missile attack" on the dam of the #KakhovkaHPP.

2/ i'll really do my #Kherson assessment situation (yeah i'm saying this for the last 72h but had much to do) tomorrow.

i don't think there will be such a damage that could cause a catastrophic rupture of the entire dam though.
but they are prepping something more than fishy

3/ Ru is not exactly drawing down as much as almost every ones reported past 15 days vs rotating forces, preparing for its new "agenda" there & also making sure that the plan goes as "smoothly" as possible. Right now RU will not abandon this area without being forcibly pushed out

4/ because Ru right now have a fairly high density / right balance of forces in #Kherson,but we know they are overall in a precarious position.. even they are not of really out of ammo & they are not out 100% out of logistics. they r planning next phase.
to make suffer the most

5/ of their ability, & to prepare for a very skillful evac of the area in different movements if they feel they need to.
so we have received all the infos now to be able to concluded such a thing. i was waiting but this w-e infos gave us all we needed to know about their intent

6/ they have pulled back (still doing so) much of the heavy arty pieces, also removing all the what i call "liabilities" (Vs Asset = what can really bring you result)
so if you remember i explained how stupid it was for Ru to wait like sitting ducks there.

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1567087088469696514

7/ and actually what "stopped" Ukr break trough was the massive manpower "pouring" into the frontline defensive positions by Russians...
they don't care much about losses & can pull back their bigger materials to the other side of the #Dniepro

8/ so they hide behind the pop for 2 good reasons actually: first to hide within civilians to avoid being shelled by Ukr of course, but also (not read abt it) because in this very particular russian way to do their crazy ass "administrative thing" they need to show that they care

9/ about the population that voted for them.. that are now Russians! (of course not)
but at the end of the day what was all the purpose when they started to talk dirty bomb, dam damages etc etc. ?

well few years ago i came across the confession of a "mob" guy (to make it simple)

10/ who was explaining that it is very much more easier to hide a crime with another potential one you are talking about.. then while you are nesting fear in ppl mind it can do his first crime.. (like robbing all the money instead of killing the old lady)

of course we r talking

11/ russians and they still can do both as they are mind-sick to their core.
but what we can also witness & that would be my idea here, is that they want now to finally stop the danse in Kherson area, (remember the report from desperate wargogo i posted one night abt hundreds of

12/ light vehicles & units that Ukr were getting ready to move forward). so maybe now Putin has set an ultimatum when he realized he could not hold that area for ever. Russians families could not live there no longer & on the long term it was a done deal)
so they might have

13/ decided to prepared an "elaborate/complex" withdrawal plan but while doing so, maximizing the extent of damages they can inflict to Ukr forces.

Remember the way they moved out north of #Kyiv for example. and they don't want to be caught doing so.
so the diff lines of defense

14/ they are preparing now are not -as i have heard- to fight inside the street of #Kherson to make it a new Stalingrad. lol no.
there is no reason whatsoever to do so. it makes literally zero sense!
it would give them the ultimate award of stupidity!

15/ because this would mean they will fight to reconquer everything then, for nothing. then bring back all the heavy materials, then need huge amounts of logistics under fire on the Dniepro while most support would be needed in #kherson streets.. etc
also risking the ultimate

16/ ridicule of being caught. and then have their own #Mariupol which they really really cannot afford..
also when UKr would be in the high buildings they would be able with AA manpads to shoot down any RU CAS and any points would be "in reach" with a simple 105 mortar. etc etc

17/ so what i believe they'll do, is to try to maximize & inflict max losses to advancing UKr army as long as they can, and then fold back (elastic defense of some sorts / jumping back on predetermined def lines) when they can't hold back. then they'll do that until complete

18/ evac during a rainy dark -no moon- night of winter.. and then maybe blow up something if they think they can make even more damages in the process.

What i also think is that they'll do like they did in north of #Kyiv or in #Syria when forced to draw back.. is that

19/ because they are saying there is no more "russians" in Ukraine (they can sell that in Russia cause they showed it, remember), then they can send hundreds of MLRS strike on #Kherson to entirely destroy it & kill as much as possible.
also why not exploding small part of the dam

20/ to put some more chaos (even if it won't affect much more the area) but will prevent ukr troops or civilians to occupy it and claimed as "home"...
they love to do that!

i said it from first month about Mykolaiv or Kharkiv etc

21/ their mentality is literally, if we can't enjoy it or have it.. we will destroy it as much as we can and you'll never ever enjoy being there!!

that's what still do everywhere they can actually.
they love cutting water, power and watch people die like in dark middle ages.

22/ ok that's not half what i wanted to explain about that subject, but writing in diff language at that time of the night is becoming hard for me.

so, that's "basically" it for now. maybe i'll come back here & will explain few more things in coming days..

23/ ok extra comments as i read some questions : Ru are NOT going to blow up the entire dam (same thing was going on with nuke power plant) first because they NEED it to bring water to Crimea so it would be 100% dumb. Also it is under control for water heights now, & they lower

24/ the level to avoid major catastrophe.
also even the head of UKr intel (who is not primarly a fun guy who loves Russian) told that there is not enough explosives to blow the entire dam! only parts and some elec materials huge components.

But they can, as i said use it to

25/ "flood" Kherson just enough, like in Venise aqua alta episodes if you will.. so you can't really live normally in parts of the city, but it's just another "layer" of calamity, not a global major treat - per say.

ok i'm out now!!