We often think the military is one big brain that thinks collectively. The fact is that there are always different groups within the Army that voice dissent but the nature of the institution means that once the Chief takes a decision, everyone falls behind it. However, when 1/n
the appointment of a new chief is around the corner, things become as political as you would expect in a Pakistani setting. Lobbying the political govt through connections is often at play in these times. #Musharraf was known to have lobbied for himself through Gen Iftikhar, 2/n
brother of Ch Nisar Ali Khan. In recent times when Bajwa was in the run for Chief, a few of his colleagues ran a smear campaign against him on social media highlighting his Ahmedi faith, and even releasing questionable videos with a similar looking dude. 3/n
The #ISI chief at the time was known to be behind that campaign. On Bajwa's behalf, his father-in-law, a retired general himself was known to be lobbying the Nawaz govt. 4/n
So now that Bajwa is retiring who has been most proactive in becoming the new COAS? No surprises here, @najamsethi has mentioned this several times and Imran fought with Bajwa over him, it's the infamous Faiz Hameed. 5/n
FH broke the code of neutrality and became IK's attack dog hounding politicians and media alike. Obv this was to curry favor with IK and be appointed the next COAS. He is Bajwa's ex-Chief of Staff, so you can presume that he is/was very close to Bajwa. 6/n
In my personal view, IK spoilt FH's entire game plan by picking a fight with Bajwa over the ISI appointment. Had IK let FH go back to the Army, there is high certainty he would have made the next COAS, with IK still being in power today. 7/n
However, that didn't happen as expected and FH stood exposed in front of Bajwa and the Army high command. He was quickly posted to Peshawar, from where he was again pushed out to Bahawalpur Corps. Growing up in the mil cantts, I cannot recollect a Lt Gen commanding two Corps 8/n
This points to the fact that all is not well between Bajwa and FH. As @najamsethi mentioned in his recent show it was reported that FH took leave from the Army and arrived in Isb to hold meetings with PTI leadership, possibly including Imran. If Sethi is to be blvd 9/n
when #GHQ discovered this, FH's leave was cancelled and he was ordered back to Bahawalpur. Again, if this is true, all is not well between Bajwa and FH. The question then is why doesn't Bajwa, as COAS, simply sack FH and send him home? After all when Hameed Gul 10/n
disobeyed orders, Gen Asif Nawaz sacked him and sent him into retirement. Why is it then that Gen Bajwa cannot sack FH? And why is FH secretly meeting political leadership? What business does a sitting CC have meeting political leadership without the COAS' permission? 11/n
Of course, we are not fools. He is simply lobbying for himself to become #COAS. And #Bajwa has to be next level compromised if he can't send FH home on early retirement for violating army protocol. As Bajwa's retirement has neared, the pressure on him has been slowly amped 12/n
up. First the killing of Arshad Sharif, and then the attack on IK. I know sentiments are running high, but what has Bajwa gained from both these events? Nothing except more public ridicule and pressure for him to resign. IK has been open about not allowing #PMLN to appoint 13/n
the new Chief. Cearly he wants his say in it. The appointment of the new Chief has taken unparalleled importance in this political showdown. What games are the top contenders playing behind the scenes? 14/n
Is there a power struggle going on between Faiz and others? Were the attacks on Arshad and IK part of someone's campaign to pressurize Bajwa in favoring one over the other? We will never know. But all eyes are on #GHQ 15/n
for the announcement to come through whenever it comes. It will most certainly not be Faiz given how controversial he has become. Will IK make the appointment controversial if the next man is not of his choosing? Will the new chief break from the past and respect the 16/n
people's mandate or will we see more of the same? Tor jor, attempts at denying IK the majority he deserves. I feel the next few days till the new Chief's appointment are going to be crucial. 17/17
Disclaimer: I don't claim to know any non-public info. I have followed the Army and it's role in politics with interest since grade 8th when I met @WaqasAslamRana at Iqra APS Quetta. I am 37 today and work in payments, but follow the Army given my family's association with it.
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