Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 – Nov 06 to Nov 12 –
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!
Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 – Western Europe
The #COVID19 epidemic activity is:
- Plateauing/slow landing in: SE (R-eff=1.02);ICL=1.0; GR=1.0; NL=0.96/FL=0.94; PT=0.91.
- Landing in CH; LUX; IT: with low mortality;
AU; DK; FR: medium mortality;
DE: high mortality);

3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones in Slovenia; Serbia; Latvia; CZ; Bulgaria; Ukraine;
- Slow landing in Croatia=0.93; Estonia=0.92; Lithuania=0.91.

4/9 – Africa
- Green everywhere regarding its #COVID19 epidemic activity, but high level of underreporting.

5/9 – Middle-East
- Increasing again in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Israel (R-eff=1.09); (Cyprus=1.09), with low (medium) mortality;
- Landing in Qatar;
- Reported to be safe elsewhere.

6/9 – Asia & Pacific
- Surge, driven by #XBB, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Japan (R-eff=1.22); Malaysia=1.22, with low mortality;
- Rise in Australia=1.14; New Zealand=1.17; South Korea=1.14, with low mortality.
- Landing in Singapore and Taiwan.

7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rising in China (R-eff=1.11), which is struggling with its #ZeroCovid strategy, very low mortality;
- Lack of news from North Korea;
- Apparently safe elsewhere.

8/9 – North America
- Canada (R-eff=0.97) is just above its #COVID19 safety zone, medium mortality. 90.7% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces.
- USA=1.08 is increasing again, with medium mortality. 81.0% >1 dose. Red in 42 states, orange in 5 and green in 3.

9/9 – Latin America
- Plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity in Chile (R-eff=1.03), with low mortality.
- Surging in Costa-Rica=1.27;
- Reported to be safe elsewhere.

10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0