Thread by @WarintheFuture

Interesting report of a possible Russian withdrawal in #Kherson, most likely from the west bank of the Dniepr. A short thread with some observations. 1/8🧵

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1590363002662178817

2/ First, this announcement was made by the military and not Putin. Ceding territory should be a political decision; this is more evidence of Putin is clearly setting up the military as the fall guys for the Russian debacle in Ukraine.

3/ Second, is this real or possibly part of a deception campaign to draw the Ukrainians into a fight the Russians have prepared for? My sense is it is the real deal. Even if the Russians are well prepared on the West Bank, their position is ultimately difficult to sustain.

4/ Third, the pace and organization of any Russian withdrawal - given this should be a deliberate activity - will tell us much about the morale and capability of the Russian forces in the south.

5/ Fourth, given the time the Russians have had to prepare this withdrawal, they may not be leaving behind as much equipment and munitions dumps as they did in the Kharkiv offensive. Therefore it may not be a bonanza of recovering enemy equipment for the Ukrainians.

6/ Fifth, the Russians may accompany this withdrawal with stepped up strategic strikes elsewhere in Ukraine. From a Russian perspective, this is payback but will also provide strategic comms material to distract a Russian audience from the Kherson withdrawal & loss of territory.

7/ This is important. Having told the Russian people, in the annexation declaration, that Kherson is part of Russia, Putin will need a story to justify the withdrawal and distract the domestic audience from it.

8/ Finally, if a withdrawal does take place, the locations to which withdrawn troops are deployed will provide insights into their combat status as well as General Surovikin’s priorities for the winter and early 2023.

9/ These are initial thoughts only. There are still many uncertainties about this potential withdrawal. The coming days will provide better clarity. End.