| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 11 7 tweets 6 min read
Apparently #Russian TG channels are backtracking on earlier counter-claims, and now report that the #AntonovskyBridge and bridges across the Kakhovka dam have been destroyed.

Rus. TG channels are erratic the past 8 hours—it's just unclear what is true.

t.me/RVvoenkor/31582
To make this even more confusing, the counter-counter-claim is that Russian forces *themselves* blew up the bridge on their retreat (note this is not logical since it could serve as a route of escape for soldiers on foot).

t.me/swodki/189201
FYI one of the earlier reports of the bridge being destroyed came around 17:15 EST.

It looks like this one moved around the information sphere a few hours before reappearing.

#antonovskybridge #Kherson

t.me/mig41/22118
Very interesting: this breakdown. Few points:

First, claims of #Antonovsky bridge destroyed happened 12 hours earlier than claimed here.

"Locks at the #Kakhovka Dam are damaged"

t.me/swodki/189209
Last twt on bridges being blown. Here, a claim only *after a *full withdrawal of RAF were bridges blown, including those at Kakhovka HPP, which was destroyed by RAF, and not the AFU.

Again, conflicting reports abound, but shows Rus. narratives aligning.

t.me/rusich_army/62…
Closing this off - it appears the above claims of Russian forces destroying the crossing are accurate.

Multiple confirmations of the Dnieper River crossings infrastructure destroyed, visually confirmed on Nov 11.

t.me/swodki/189207
t.me/swodki/189263

END Antonofskyy Bridge Destroyed. Both Spans. Nov 11. 2022.Nova Kakhovka HPP Dam Causeway Destroyed. Northern ConnectorDnieper River - Kherson Rail Trestle. Destroyed. Nov 11. 202

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More from @osint_east

Nov 12
🤔

I thought working out a context/investigative thread on this developing story may be of use.

Recent posts suggest fighting in/near #Kinburn Peninsula [Кінбурнська] or vicinity of Herois'ke [Геройське].

The whole story is incomplete, but there is come context:

1/X
There's a few sources here to work with: official, local, and Rus. milbloggers (who either interpret or infer from events). This is an unconfirmed video (Ukrainian origin) accompanying the claim:

"MTR [SOF] on boats trying to cross the #Dnieper."

t.me/horevica/7571

2/
There was a corresponding (albeit cryptic) message from OK South pointing at military operations, later confirmed in an official post.

Note: on a Nov. 11 post OK So. mentions only Kinburn "remains to be liberated."

t.me/mykolaivskaODA…
t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

3/ ImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Nov 12
@TheStudyofWar releases its daily assessment:

"Russian military leadership—namely Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin—have been developing informational cover to set conditions for the loss of the right bank."

#UkraineRussiaWar

1/7
I'm applying to this daily assessment my existing threads on #Kherson from the prior two weeks. All aspects of the assessment can be expanded on through these threads.

Nov. 6

"The Battle of Kherson"

1/

Nov. 9

"Note on the possible fallout from the recapture of Kherson by Ukrainian forces.

2/

Read 8 tweets
Nov 12
A few comments. Constructive discussion only, please.

First, Nazi symbology in the war has been a constant. This includes both Ukrainian and Russian forces which have displayed it in some capacity.

⬇️ AFU-worn patch, 36th WG Div. SS

1/
Second, an elemental fact is that there are neo-Nazi factions in the Ukrainian and Russian armies. The quoted thread actually highlights Nazi symbology across several AFU units.

The reasons for this are, understandably, complicated. Just a few points to expand on that.

2/
There are strong-beds of ultranationalism and ethnonationalism across Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, and in Russia.

This includes nationalist anti-democratic outfits, anarchists, and also those whose origins or ideological premises derive from, or interpret, Nazism.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Nov 10
Interestingly #Russian sources are now trading the same talking points across high-profile channels, disputing several claims:

1) Video of boat sounds not real
2) 20,000 RAF soldiers not trapped
3) AFU entering city premature

t.me/swodki/189126
t.me/boris_rozhin/6…
They are equally frustrated by what seems to be a "cheated outcome" where a "corridor" granted by the Americans was not honored by the #Ukrainians .

t.me/swodki/189127
It is very clear that the rapid spread of conflicting information is seeping into individual unit cohesion. Here is an attempt to tamp down the current claims.

t.me/swodki/189128
Read 16 tweets
Nov 10
I really try and stray away from wading into vapid threads here, but there's something I want to point out that I find incredibly frustrating with ChuckPfarrer .

First, many said "twit-idiots" engaged in a thorough process to investigate the origins of the blast.

#OSINT

1/12
A great example is @OAlexanderDK thread which took into account various elements of the attack. The main point I want to drive here is that Oliver made the effort to arrive at a best-judgement hypothesis, and based on the available evidence.

2/

Even I don't fully conclude it was a VBIED—not because I don't believe it happened—but because outcomes can only as conclusive based on available evidence. I leave open the possibility of other outcomes even if they are highly unlikely. It's called a hypothesis for a reason.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Nov 9
Just a note: it will most certainly not be hours. The Russians (having weeks to plan) have likely turned the city into a giant booby trap.

Moreover, they likely have artillery (now unreachable on the eastern bank) zeroed in on dozens, and perhaps hundreds, of coordinates.

1/
A serious Russian retrograde strategy will be to make the recapture of Kherson as costly as possible for the AFU (in the short and long-term), even if Russian forces are not physically present in the city.

2/2

+1

Implication of such potential for the city to be booby trapped seem well-understood by the AFU and Ukrainian government.

An aggressive AFU push will be tempered by this reality.

Read 4 tweets

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