Apparently #Russian TG channels are backtracking on earlier counter-claims, and now report that the #AntonovskyBridge and bridges across the Kakhovka dam have been destroyed.
Rus. TG channels are erratic the past 8 hours—it's just unclear what is true.
To make this even more confusing, the counter-counter-claim is that Russian forces *themselves* blew up the bridge on their retreat (note this is not logical since it could serve as a route of escape for soldiers on foot).
Last twt on bridges being blown. Here, a claim only *after a *full withdrawal of RAF were bridges blown, including those at Kakhovka HPP, which was destroyed by RAF, and not the AFU.
Again, conflicting reports abound, but shows Rus. narratives aligning.
There's a few sources here to work with: official, local, and Rus. milbloggers (who either interpret or infer from events). This is an unconfirmed video (Ukrainian origin) accompanying the claim:
"MTR [SOF] on boats trying to cross the #Dnieper."
"Russian military leadership—namely Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin—have been developing informational cover to set conditions for the loss of the right bank."
I'm applying to this daily assessment my existing threads on #Kherson from the prior two weeks. All aspects of the assessment can be expanded on through these threads.
Second, an elemental fact is that there are neo-Nazi factions in the Ukrainian and Russian armies. The quoted thread actually highlights Nazi symbology across several AFU units.
The reasons for this are, understandably, complicated. Just a few points to expand on that.
2/
There are strong-beds of ultranationalism and ethnonationalism across Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, and in Russia.
This includes nationalist anti-democratic outfits, anarchists, and also those whose origins or ideological premises derive from, or interpret, Nazism.
3/
It is very clear that the rapid spread of conflicting information is seeping into individual unit cohesion. Here is an attempt to tamp down the current claims.
I really try and stray away from wading into vapid threads here, but there's something I want to point out that I find incredibly frustrating with ChuckPfarrer .
First, many said "twit-idiots" engaged in a thorough process to investigate the origins of the blast.
A great example is @OAlexanderDK thread which took into account various elements of the attack. The main point I want to drive here is that Oliver made the effort to arrive at a best-judgement hypothesis, and based on the available evidence.
Even I don't fully conclude it was a VBIED—not because I don't believe it happened—but because outcomes can only as conclusive based on available evidence. I leave open the possibility of other outcomes even if they are highly unlikely. It's called a hypothesis for a reason.
3/
A serious Russian retrograde strategy will be to make the recapture of Kherson as costly as possible for the AFU (in the short and long-term), even if Russian forces are not physically present in the city.