66% of adults had at least 1 symptom during the acute phase (first 2 months) of diagnosis of #COVID-19.
I’ve highlighted the symptoms experienced by at least 10%. Note that some of the less common symptoms are quite debilitating though (e.g., 9% w/lung pain).
2/12
If you had a #COVID symptom initially, what are the chances it persists beyond 2 months? See 2nd column, green highlights emphasize those enduring among >10%.
Many of the initial symptoms endure in about 20% of ppl. Russian-roulette like odds.
3/12
If you know someone with a new #COVID infection/reinfection who is experiencing symptoms, dive deep into that particular row.
For example, while memory loss is rare (4.3%), it’s the most enduring symptom beyond 2 months (40% persisting).
4/12
If you had an acute #COVID symptom, what were the chances it would resolve within 1 year?
See authors’ BLACK text.
I’ve also added a column with the chances a symptom persists (ORANGE text). Balanced framing. 🙂
5/12
Now, let’s manually combine the acute (<2 month), near-term (>2 month), and long-term (>1yr) #COVID data into one figure. Silly JAMA. 😊
Some symptoms present at 2 months largely fall off. Others persist in >25% (palp, art pain, att/conc, memory, sleep).
6/12
Overall, the number of #COVID-19 symptoms each person experiences diminishes over time.
Caveats: Initial infections were all pre-vax (call for hope), but also pre-omicron and before many reinfections (call for caution). Note, %s are among those who had an acute symptom.
7/12
Older adults, women, and ppl w/>5 acute symptoms were more likely to have persistent #COVID symptoms at 1 year.
Higher BMI = more persistent symptoms. Bad for the U.S.
8/12
An Appendix figure models the typical time to resolution of a #COVID symptom (crude estimate, varies by symptom & individual).
I added the blue line, which suggest about 5% would experience symptoms at 3 yrs. That's >16 million Americans. Very rough estimate. #recession
9/12
Model of time to COVID-19 symptom resolution by subgroup.
#COVID has persistent effects for those with a history of cancer or who had a bad acute case. Either we have a critical gender health disparity or men are trying to walk off heart palpitations. 🤔
An average of 10% of adults were experiencing long-term symptoms from #COVID-19.
The authors note that this is a critical public health problem b/c of the high incidence of infection. They are perhaps too optimistic. We have a high incidence of REinfections.
11/12
Limitations: The COVID-19 initial infections were all before the vaccine era, mostly before reinfections, and pre-omicron.
You cannot have long-term data AND up-to-date world events. Stay cautious until the long-term data are optimistic.
12/12
By the way, feel free to share any of this on other platforms (Mastodon, Discord, TikTok, Myspace, or even Facebook) and with family/friends. I tried to annotate the figures in a way that it would be relatable to a general audience. Where I failed, ask questions.
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The PMC website includes an international directory of websites with COVlD wastewater monitoring. It is more up to date than the directories of the EU and WHO.
Let's review what's happening in Europe...
1/
Data in #Austria show a rising COVlD wave. The x axis (bottom) has infrequent labels, but the data shown go through October 8th.
An estimated 1 in 81 people are actively infectious during the ongoing 11th wave.
The "shutdown" has created a blackout at the state level.
Transmission is half that of the peak one month ago, and we anticipate a relative national "lull" in early-to-mid November, albeit still at dangerous levels.
Our model uses a combination of CDC and Biobot data, so we are able to estimate national statistics despite the CDC data going offline. On the map, note that Puerto Rico continues to update; they use a CDC-style system but were dropped by the CDC long ago. For full methodology, review the technical appendix on the website.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/9
#DuringCOVID is today. We estimate >600,000 new daily infections. This is about half the peak on September 6.
Notice current levels are similar to the estimated peaks of the first 3 waves.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/9
Weekly estimates:
🔹4.5 million infections
🔹>200,000 resulting long-term health conditions
🔹>1,300 resulting excess deaths
Key points in my letter to the pharmacy boards. 🧵1/7
Georgia law indicates that the pharmacy board is to follow ACIP. They do not dictate further nuance. Georgia continues to require prescriptions, going against the spirit of the law, ACIP, and 47 other states.
🧵2/7
Louisiana law tells the pharmacy board to follow ACIP. ACIP says do not require a prescription, and 47 other states agree.
The Louisiana pharmacy board continues to require a prescription.
On the back end of this unprecedented 11th wave, "times they are a-changin." In particular, COVlD levels are shifting north and east.
Notice that few states are in the highest and lowest categories. Much of the south and west have considerable transmission post-peak. Many places in the north and east are seeing steady or increasing transmission after relatively lower levels.
Overall, levels are lower than the past few weeks, but transmission remains considerable. Those relying on anecdata (friends, coworkers, and family infected) may increasingly realize we are in a wave.
We estimate nearly 750,000 new daily infections nationwide, meaning approximately 1 in 66 people or 1.5% are actively infectious.
These estimates are derived by linking wastewater levels to IHME true case estimates using methodology commonly employed worldwide, detailed on the website, noted in a pre-print. Many publications in leading medical journals link wastewater data to key metrics that matter, noted in the online technical appendix.
In this week's report, we note adding North Dakota and Puerto Rico to the heat map in support of health equity. We have been imputing ND levels since the launch of PMC 3.0 using data from neighboring states. PR continues to report qualitative levels using the CDC format but is not longer included on the CDC website.
1/8 🧵
PMC COVlD Update, Sep 29, 2025 (U.S.)
State-level prevalence estimates, AL to MS. The levels use CDC labels, which tend to have an optimistic portrayal of risk. For example, CO is listed at "low" (by our estimate 1.5% infectious).
#MaskUp at 1.5% if having lapsed.
2/8 🧵
PMC COVlD Update, Sep 29, 2025 (U.S.)
State-level prevalence estimates, Missouri to Wyoming.
New York had *huge* retroactive upward corrections, and is now "High," as many residents hypothesized.
Note, Puerto Rico only provides CDC qualitative levels, so no data.