66% of adults had at least 1 symptom during the acute phase (first 2 months) of diagnosis of #COVID-19.
I’ve highlighted the symptoms experienced by at least 10%. Note that some of the less common symptoms are quite debilitating though (e.g., 9% w/lung pain).
2/12
If you had a #COVID symptom initially, what are the chances it persists beyond 2 months? See 2nd column, green highlights emphasize those enduring among >10%.
Many of the initial symptoms endure in about 20% of ppl. Russian-roulette like odds.
3/12
If you know someone with a new #COVID infection/reinfection who is experiencing symptoms, dive deep into that particular row.
For example, while memory loss is rare (4.3%), it’s the most enduring symptom beyond 2 months (40% persisting).
4/12
If you had an acute #COVID symptom, what were the chances it would resolve within 1 year?
See authors’ BLACK text.
I’ve also added a column with the chances a symptom persists (ORANGE text). Balanced framing. 🙂
5/12
Now, let’s manually combine the acute (<2 month), near-term (>2 month), and long-term (>1yr) #COVID data into one figure. Silly JAMA. 😊
Some symptoms present at 2 months largely fall off. Others persist in >25% (palp, art pain, att/conc, memory, sleep).
6/12
Overall, the number of #COVID-19 symptoms each person experiences diminishes over time.
Caveats: Initial infections were all pre-vax (call for hope), but also pre-omicron and before many reinfections (call for caution). Note, %s are among those who had an acute symptom.
7/12
Older adults, women, and ppl w/>5 acute symptoms were more likely to have persistent #COVID symptoms at 1 year.
Higher BMI = more persistent symptoms. Bad for the U.S.
8/12
An Appendix figure models the typical time to resolution of a #COVID symptom (crude estimate, varies by symptom & individual).
I added the blue line, which suggest about 5% would experience symptoms at 3 yrs. That's >16 million Americans. Very rough estimate. #recession
9/12
Model of time to COVID-19 symptom resolution by subgroup.
#COVID has persistent effects for those with a history of cancer or who had a bad acute case. Either we have a critical gender health disparity or men are trying to walk off heart palpitations. 🤔
An average of 10% of adults were experiencing long-term symptoms from #COVID-19.
The authors note that this is a critical public health problem b/c of the high incidence of infection. They are perhaps too optimistic. We have a high incidence of REinfections.
11/12
Limitations: The COVID-19 initial infections were all before the vaccine era, mostly before reinfections, and pre-omicron.
You cannot have long-term data AND up-to-date world events. Stay cautious until the long-term data are optimistic.
12/12
By the way, feel free to share any of this on other platforms (Mastodon, Discord, TikTok, Myspace, or even Facebook) and with family/friends. I tried to annotate the figures in a way that it would be relatable to a general audience. Where I failed, ask questions.
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🔸CDC SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels "Very High," and up from last week
🔸1 in 21 estimated actively infectious
🔸>250,000 estimated new daily infections statewide
Four figures...
1/4🧵
CDC wastewater data in California show COVlD cases increasing from the already "Very High" levels last week.
2/4🧵
With an estimated 1 in 21 (or 4.8%) of California residents actively infectious of COVlD, risk increases dramatically in larger and more frequent social gatherings.
Interact with 25 people of average risk of being positive, and that's a >70% chance of exposure.
3/4🧵
Let's say you're a dairy farmer. You have 100 cows. Each year, about 5 cows die, and another 5 cows are born. Then, along comes a virus. Let's call it "cowvid"...
1/
Let's say "cowvid" wipes out about half the cows over the course of a couple years. Now, you're down to 50 cows....
2/
The local mayor declares "cowvid" to be over. This surprises you as a farmer because 5 of your cows keep dying annually. 5 of 50 instead of 5 out of 100. Seems like more, but you're not a city slicker...
3/
The 11th wave is still rising.
🔥23 states/territories High/Very High
🔥Very High: Alabama, DC, Guam, Hawai'i, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah
🔥1 in 56 estimated actively infectious
🔥876,000 new daily infections
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵2 of 8
Note that the CDC has modified 📉 how transmission levels correspond to the categorical bins.
Take California. We estimate 1 in 30 actively infectious statewide. This would have previously been "Very High," now just "High."
#NewNormal
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵3 of 8
Here are the prevalence estimates for the first half of states/territories.
Notice how high the levels are in some of the "Moderate" states.
Second, a lot of people can sustain a strong denial of reality about the ongoing pandemic during lulls. They suppress the existence of COVlD waves and excess deaths, disability, and retirements.
During waves, those defenses burst. Loss of control = anger...
Third, a lot of people (many reading this) understand COVlD correctly & experience righteous indignation during COVlD waves. We quite reasonably do not like all of the unjust and gratuitous suffering.
I find it helpful to channel that intensity into helping other people....