American copium regarding China has evolved over the years.
From “China is poor” to “China IS collapsing” to now “China is rich but WILL collapse.”
Here’s a quick debunking about the demographic crisis, one of the alleged reasons for future collapse:
1. A smaller population will be a blessing in the coming years. A lot of people still don't understand the coming revolution of AI and robots.
Like this autonomous taxi, for example.
2. If there are jobs that cannot be done by robots, there are two options:
A. Offshore those jobs to other developing nations. This will also mean higher profit margins for Chinese companies.
B. Bring in immigrants -- perhaps even on a short-term basis.
3. Create incentives for Chinese people to have more children. The main obstacles now are financial -- young people not being able to afford to buy homes, spend a lot of money on kids' tuition etc.
These are more easily solved in China than anywhere else. (Next tweet)
3 (contd). For example, the gov can provide free/subsidized housing for young couples with children.
And free/subsidized childcare.
Protecting jobs of young moms, providing long maternity leave etc.
3 (contd). China is innovating a lot in community services for retired people. The same can be done for childcare and for young parents.
Some videos of robots doing clever things in China:
Robot making crepe in Beijing. And it works 24 hours a day!
Robots and hi-tech machines making solar panels in Xinjiang, China.
Bottom line: Technocrats in Beijing are good in math and science. They know how many jobs need to be created, how many jobs need to be automated, how many children need to be born etc.
China will create the right policies for the future. They know what it’s at stake.
End 🧵
One more: Smart farming with driverless trucks that are also electric and 5G-enabled!
🧵 Can Save Trump Save the Dollar with Threats Against BRICS?
I cannot remember Trump ever talking about BRICS, but the first time he did was to threaten the multilateral organization with 100% tariffs, if it creates a BRICS currency.
Why?
America’s prosperity depends on the “exorbitant privilege” of USD
This allows US to run massive budget and trade deficits every year.
Trump knows it.
"If we lose the global reserve currency status of the dollar, we will become a third-world country! "
In the past, US deep state & military would stage coups, assassinate leaders or invade countries if anyone decided to walk away from the dollar – Iraq and Libya, for example.
So much for freedom, choice, sovereignty, free trade, rules-based order, and free-market capitalism.
Let’s put this fantasy to rest once and for all. There are two types of Americans who would wish to decouple from China:
💠Warmongers who know they cannot start a war with China, if the US economy is dependent on the geopolitical rival.
💠Those who wish to reduce US’ trade deficit and bring manufacturing back.
However, here are the reasons why trade wars with China are not easy and cannot be won:
1) This has been tried for the last 8 years with Trump tariffs, Biden tariffs, sanctions, friend-shoring and re-shoring. US imports from China have been stubbornly hovering around $450 billion a year since 2016. (see chart)
2) Note that this $450 billion translates to perhaps $4 trillion of sales and millions of retails jobs within the US economy. Like, how Trump pays $3 for a bible printed in China and sells it for $30!
3) There are many products for which China accounts for 50-100% of the US imports. It has been impossible to find alternate suppliers.
Some of these products include critical minerals and medicines, which are indispensable for normal functioning of US economy. Simply imagine the riots in the US if the shelves in Walmart, Target etc. are empty.
4) While the US has greatly increased imports from Mexico, Vietnam, India etc., guess what? Those countries buy intermediate goods from China, assemble them into final products, and export them to the US.
Thus, the supply chain is still dependent on China.
Americans are simply buying Chinese goods through a third party. This is why China’s exports to those countries have increased a lot since 2018. Fact is that nobody can match China’s scale, speed, price and quality. (see chart)
5) Companies like Apple and Tesla cannot survive without China. Those two companies have a combined market cap of $4.5 trillion!
Consider that one-third of all Tesla cars in the world are made in Shanghai; and 80% of iPhones are still assembled in China.
Then, there are companies like Starbucks, KFC, McDonald’s and countless American retail, fashion and hospitality (hotel) companies for whom China is the #1 or #2 largest market in the world. Same holds true for US tech giants like Qualcomm and Nvidia.
The S&P 500 companies earn $1 trillion from annual sales within China.
As Tim Cook said today, “We (Apple) cannot do what we do without China.” Heck, even the US military industrial complex depends on China – as Raytheon’s CEO admitted that his company depends on thousands of Chinese suppliers.
6) All the allies and vassals of the US are also highly interconnected with China. For Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia etc., their #1 trade partner is… China!
7) Finally, the big picture: China is the world’s largest trading nation. It is #1 in manufacturing, #1 in exports, and #2 in imports.
China's primacy in manufacturing will keep increasing. By 2030, China will account for 45% of global manufacturing! (see chart)
China is also #1 in patents and #1 in scientific papers. This is why Europe is now begging for technology transfer from Chinese companies to figure out how to make EV batteries, solar panels etc.
The US could have decoupled from China 30 years. However, now, it’s mission impossible.
Interestingly, as China becomes more independent and catches up in semiconductor technology, soon, the reverse could be possible – that is, China could decouple from the US!
Two more charts:
How China’s exports to Mexico and India have skyrocketed since the US-China trade wars began:
“China is the largest source of imports for 26 of the 59 minerals classified as critical by the U.S. government.”
Furthermore, China supplies 100% of 12 critical minerals for the US!