American copium regarding China has evolved over the years.
From “China is poor” to “China IS collapsing” to now “China is rich but WILL collapse.”
Here’s a quick debunking about the demographic crisis, one of the alleged reasons for future collapse:
1. A smaller population will be a blessing in the coming years. A lot of people still don't understand the coming revolution of AI and robots.
Like this autonomous taxi, for example.
2. If there are jobs that cannot be done by robots, there are two options:
A. Offshore those jobs to other developing nations. This will also mean higher profit margins for Chinese companies.
B. Bring in immigrants -- perhaps even on a short-term basis.
3. Create incentives for Chinese people to have more children. The main obstacles now are financial -- young people not being able to afford to buy homes, spend a lot of money on kids' tuition etc.
These are more easily solved in China than anywhere else. (Next tweet)
3 (contd). For example, the gov can provide free/subsidized housing for young couples with children.
And free/subsidized childcare.
Protecting jobs of young moms, providing long maternity leave etc.
3 (contd). China is innovating a lot in community services for retired people. The same can be done for childcare and for young parents.
Some videos of robots doing clever things in China:
Robot making crepe in Beijing. And it works 24 hours a day!
Robots and hi-tech machines making solar panels in Xinjiang, China.
Bottom line: Technocrats in Beijing are good in math and science. They know how many jobs need to be created, how many jobs need to be automated, how many children need to be born etc.
China will create the right policies for the future. They know what it’s at stake.
End 🧵
One more: Smart farming with driverless trucks that are also electric and 5G-enabled!
Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up started in 1978.
1. But China did not right away embrace private enterprises and capitalism.
2. Private enterprises were illegal and not even officially recognized until 1988! (A few Special Economic Zones like Shenzhen had more freedom)
3. Some entrepreneurs in the 1980s were allowed to run private businesses under the "red hat" -- i.e., pretending to be collectives or government-owned.
4. 1980s: There were also high taxes and numerous restrictions such as maximum 5 employees in a private enterprise.
5. Only in 1994 did private enterprises get many legal protections and freedom.
6. In 1999, the Chinese Constitution was amended to acknowledge that the private sector is an "important component" of the economy.
Trump, Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan… it’s an American political tradition to impose tariffs, even though they have never helped create jobs or protect manufacturing! 😆