Thread by @NavrozDubash

1/n India’s long-term low-emission development strategy (LT-LEDS) was just released at #COP27 . Here’s the TL;DR version + my thoughts on what next.

(Disclosure: @CPR_Climate was overall anchor institute & technical knowledge partner for the doc, working with several other orgs)

2/n Framing:
-Low contribution to warming- 4% of cumulative emm; 17% of global pop
-Significant energy needs for dev- decoupling from a low base
-Committed to low-C dev strategies- scope for co-benefits; mindful of trade-offs
-Vulnerable to impacts; committed to build resilience

3/n CORE contribution: LT-LEDS frames the challenge as sectoral development-led transitions, in the context of equity, each with a discrete set of transition elements arrived at through a cross-ministerial process.

4/n LT-LEDS provides roadmaps for 6 key six sectors - energy, transport, buildings and cities, industry, CDR, forests - and finance. Notable this is the first time India has produced LT-LEDS for urban, industrial and transport.

5/n Here is our snapshot of the 6 transitions and underlying ‘elements’. Carefully-worded elements:
contain clues on balancing competing priorities
provide clear implementation ‘buckets’ to mobilise bureaucracies send signals to private sector.

6/n For eg. on electricity, it emphasizes low-carbon development consistent with inclusive growth.
- Clear signal on the rapid expansion of renewables
- Explores significantly greater role for nuclear
- Clear signals on promoting local manufacturing

7/n On coal transition, LT-LEDS recommends:
- rational utilization of fossil resources
- reskilling, and redeployment of manpower
- closing inefficient coal power

Rationale is for fossil resources to help balance India’s energy security, efficiency, and net-zero objectives.

8/n Finance and technology chapters are starting points at best. Finance summarises existing studies to suggest needs of ‘tens of trillions of dollars by 2050’.

9/n Inclusion of lifestyles chapter around India’s high-profile ‘Mission #LiFE’ helpfully nods to importance of demand approaches. As LiFE idea is fleshed out, it could usefully be complemented by more attention to infrastructure choices and incentives.
theprint.in/opinion/three-…

10/n LT-LEDS is notable as much for what is said as how it was put together - multiple cross-ministerial task groups + academia/think tanks + industry. This increases the chances of sustained conversation and future buy-in.

11/n LT-LEDS needs to be a living document. This is a starting point, but one that needs building on:
a) Clarity on climate equity frames
b) Greater attention to co-benefits and trade offs
c) Progress on modelling

12/n Two climate equity frames
1. ‘..pursue dev goals.. within..fair share of global C budget’ - ie C as a constraint
2. ‘..making development choices..along low-carbon pathways’ - ie low-C as one among multiple objectives

1 dominates framing, 2 better represents content

13/n Benefits and challenges for envisioned transitions are addressed, but need to be fleshed out much further for each transition. Implementation of LT-LEDS vision will depend on how development challenges are managed and benefits are distributed.

14/n Future LT-LEDS need insights from models on implications of alternative trajectories to net zero, development linkages, costs that are transparent and deliberative. See climatefuturesproject.in for good practice in energy-emissions models.

It has been a pleasure to work with @iitdelhi, @CSIRIndia, @PrayasEnergy, @WRIIndia, @NIUA_India, @FollowCII, @teriin, @IoraEcological, @IIMAhmedabad, @ForestSurvey, @CEA_India, @DELHI_SPA, @CSIRIIP and others on the LT-LEDS.