Thread by @TheValuesVoter

So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:

Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).

https://twitter.com/TheValuesVoter/status/1461031314572857359

Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).

There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).

And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).

Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.

(All of this information above, on how the district lines are drawn and how the political lean score of the districts comes from the @CookPolitical report and from @Redistrict. Most of the rest of it, from here on out, is my interpretation of this information).

Let's look at the House races which have been switched from one party to another according to the CNN calls made so far (cnn.com/election).

Let's start with Arizona. An Independent Commission redrew the House District lines in AZ.

Republicans flipped Arizona's Second District, which is currently held by Tom O'Halleran, who lost his bid for re-election.

In 2020, this district had a Cook PVI score of R+2, meaning it was 2 points more Republican than the national average.

Now it's R+6. More Republican.

Republicans also flipped Arizona's Sixth District, which is held by the retiring Ann Kirkpatrick (currently the second district - sometimes they change numbers a bit).

#AZ06 in 2020 was D+2, meaning it was 2 points more Democratic than the national average.

Now it's R+3.

In Florida, the House District lines were basically drawn by Ron DeSantis. These changes cut the number of majority black districts in Florida in half, from four to two.

#FL07, the seat the retiring Stephanie Murphy holds, was D+3 in 2020. It's R+5 now.

Republicans also flipped #FL13, the seat Charlie Crist holds and which he is not running for re-election for because he ran for Governor. It was an even district, voting right along with the national average in terms of partisan lean. Now it is an R+6 district.

House district lines in Georgia were drawn by Republicans in the state.

Republicans flipped #GA06, which had been a D+1 district. It is now an R+11 district.

House district lines in Illinois were drawn by Democrats.

Democrats flipped #IL13. It had been an R+4 district and is now a D+3 district.

District lines in Iowa were drawn by an Independent Commission with Republicans having the ability to override them.

Republicans flipped #IA03 even though the partisan lean of the district had not changed since 2020.

The District lines in Michigan were drawn by an Independent Commission.

Democrats flipped #MI03, which went from being an R+5 district to a D+1 district.

Republicans flipped #MI10, which was a D+4 district and is now an R+3 district.

There are a bunch more districts that flipped but I'll try to finish listing the rest of them a little later.

But given the narrowness of the majority, it's very fair to say that redistricting was a factor in the ultimate outcome.

New Mexico was one of the few states where the Democrats controlled redistricting.

Democrats flipped #NM02, which went from being an R+8 district to being a D+1 district.

In New York, an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats had the final say. Except that they didn’t because the courts overturned their attempt to gerrymander (different courts did not stop GOP gerrymanders elsewhere).

But New York was just bad for Democrats generally.

Republicans flipped #NY03, which went from being D+3 to D+2.

Republicans flipped #NY04, which was D+4 and is now D+5.

Republicans also flipped #NY17, which went from D+9 (pretty doggone blue) to D+3 (a lot closer to even turf). The district Maloney chose to run in.

Republicans flipped #NY19, which went from being R+3 to being an even playing field.

NY was bad for Dems no matter what happened.

An Independent Commission controlled the line drawing in Ohio although Republicans could override it.

#OH01 went from being an R+4 seat to being a D+2 seat. Democrats flipped it, kicking our Republican Steve Chabot.

Democrats drew the lines in Oregon.

#OR05 did not change in terms of its partisan lean but Republicans flipped it after incumbent Democrat Kurt Schrader lost his primary.

One of the more extreme examples is in Tennessee, where Republicans controlled the entire process.

Republicans flipped #TN05 after turning it from a D+9 district to an R+9 district. An 18 point change in partisan lean. Incumbent Democrat Jim Cooper retired. The GOP easily won.

In Texas, the Republicans had full control of the redistricting process.

The Republicans flipped #TX15, which went from D+3 to R+1.

As part of making some of the other districts redder, they made a few other districts bluer. And Dems flipped #TX34, which went from D+5 to D+9.

Virginia's lines were redrawn by an Independent Commission.

Republicans flipped #VA02, which went from R+1 to R+2.