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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
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Nov 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Critical_Infrastructure: The Russian attacks on Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure that have taken place in the last 6 weeks are creating the risk of a full blackout (the worst-case scenario): 1) high probability of a humanitarian crisis involving millions of civilians;⤵️
2) Cause epidemiological risks; 3) Renewal of the refugee crisis; 4) the weakening of the supply chain to the military forces of Ukraine. Russian intentions are to force Ukraine to negotiate and increase the costs of supporting Ukraine in the West (additional incentive⤵️
in the direction of negotiations). Russia seeks to preserve the current status quo (occupation and annexation of the southeastern regions of Ukraine), which does not rule out the future resumption of aggression against Ukraine.⤵️
More on that in my article published in October👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 24
#Russia_Energy: The EU has not yet decided which oil price cap should apply. There are three opinions: 1) Poland leads the group that advocates a cap below $65 per barrel; 2) Greece favors the $70 cap as it has a large shipping industry; 3) Most, including Germany, are ⤵️
targeting the $65 top price. Anyway, it is well known that Russian oil sells for up to 25% off or ~$65 per barrel. That means the $65 price ceiling will not hit Russia hard. However, with the EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil in place on Dec 5, Russia will have more trouble ⤵️
marketing its oil. In the event that the price rises due to market shortages (coordinated by Russia with OPEC+), Russian oil will continue to be sold with discounts. Market traders may ask for lower priced oil from Russia due to the risks of secondary sanctions for trading in it.
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 23
#EU_Russia: The oil price cap will probably be $60-70 per barrel, while the grace period will be 45 days (if loaded before Dec 5th and unloaded before Jan 19th). On the other hand, the EU is also discussing a cap price for Russian gas that would be €275 per MWh⤵️
(€2,974 per 1,000 m3). This price cap for gas is proposed for a year in futures for a month ahead. Thus, the EU tries to avoid damaging the gas market, while in reality it costs Russia nothing to sell its gas via pipeline or as LNG at a profitable price. Now, the price of⤵️
gas is at the level of €120 per MWh or €1,298 per 1,000 m3. The gas price cap mechanism will be activated in two cases: 1) for 2 weeks, the price exceeds €2,974 per 1,000 m3; 2) the difference between the TTF and the global price of LNG will exceed €58 in 10 business days.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 22
#Ukraine_Moldova: Russia has announced that it will stop gas supplies through Ukraine, except for gas destined for Moldova: 1) Gazprom claims that Ukraine would have withheld up to 52.52 million m3 of gas destined for Moldova. I assume that these are actually⤵️
Moldova's strategic reserves that are stored in the Ukrainian storage. 2) Russia declares that it will stop the 43 million m3 of gas flowing through Ukraine to the EU, excluding the 5.7 million that are committed for daily supply to Moldova for Dec 2022.⤵️👇
Consequently, Gazprom will not deliver 37.3 million m3, in breach of contractual commitments with Ukraine. The flow of gas will stop from November 28. Gazprom conditions the resumption of supplies with the gas for Moldova stored in Ukraine (for which Moldova paid⤵️
Read 16 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 22
#Moldova_Russia: Gazprom will keep the volume of gas supplied to Moldova at the level of 5.7 million m3 for Dec 2022. This constitutes only 56.5% of the previously agreed volumes for this month. Gazprom justifies this decision with false accusations that Ukraine would hinder⤵️
gas flows. On the other hand, as Moldovan govt does not fully comply with the contract signed by it last year related in part to the payment of old debts (around $700 million), Gazprom is using this as an excuse not to supply the full amount of gas, even if the Moldovan part⤵️
pays for it. These days, Moldova’s Court of Audit confirmed the debts of almost 600 million dollars of MoldovaGaz (Moldovan gas operator; 50% of the shares belong to Gazprom) with Russia. Based on the verification of the available documentation, the Court of Audit concluded⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 21
#Russia: The NATO Assembly established through its resolution that Russia is a "terrorist state". This is a significant update to the previous Council of Europe Assembly resolution that defined only Putin’s regime (not the entire country) as terrorist.⤵️
21 NATO states are also member states of the EU. In addition, Turkey has also supported the resolution declaring Russia a terrorist state (which shows again that Erdogan is compartmentalizing the relations with Russia and both Putin and the West are accepting this). In general,⤵️
we gave two groups of states that have a tough position on Russia: 1) supporters of sanctions and no open support to treat Russia as a terrorist state (11 countries = non-NATO EU member states, plus Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand); and⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 17
#Russia_Energy: While China is showing increased vigilance over secondary sanctions for importing Russian oil as the day of the embargo (Dec 5) approaches, India is acting in a riskier fashion. Indian companies have taken several steps (with state permission):⤵️
1) Indian Oil Corp and Nayara Energy refineries ordered oil from Russia beyond Dec 5th (when the EU imposes the embargo and the oil price cap is supposed to enter in force). Other Indian processors that used to buy Russian oil are more cautious and suspended⤵️
the imports for Dec. This speaks of the non-existent state regulation that imposes a single approach to the foreign sanctions regime; 2) Indian and Russian financial institutions have established compatibility mechanisms to approve Russian insurance for seaborne oil imports.⤵️
Read 6 tweets

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