#Putin suggested establishing new intnl settlement system based on ancient Hawala. The urge for Hawala 2.0 shows how desperately 🇷🇺 needs a systemic solution to the issue of intnl payments.Attempts to switch to rub/yuan/gold/crypto haven't been successful

frankrg.com/102702
Hawala (originated in 8th century in South Asia) is an informal funds transfer system that allows for the transfer of funds from one person to another without the actual movement of money. Nowadays it is also called underground banking and is widely used, for instance, in Iran
This is how it works: Vladimir needs to send $1000 to his partner Ali, who lives in another country. So he approaches a hawaladar Deniz and gives him the amount of money for Ali. Deniz contacts the hawaladar in Ali's country and asks him to give money to Ali.
In September I argued (thanks @CEIP_Politika) that it would be hard for #Russia to convince the rest of the world that its attempts to reinvent the global monetary system are an improvement on the tried and tested convenience of reserve currencies.

carnegieendowment.org/politika/87814
SWIFT ban & restrictions on $ and € force #Russian businesses to look alternatives in yuan, ruble, lira, crypto and take additional costly risks with that.For instance,to avoid correspondent banking, Russia has allowed cash settlements for import/exports
kommersant.ru/doc/5680931
The share of yuan in the structure of FX earnings sales by exporters exceeds 40% in Oct. It will inevitably increase, but we cannot speak of an established system comfortable for Russian businesses and foreign partners. Otherwise, Putin would not have had to offer Hawala 2.0.
This actually brings us to a conclusion: challenging the established world system of settlements and payments, man needs something more attractive than curses to dollar domination, weird geopolitical chimeras, and a nuclear button
Or look for brokers to set up international transactions in #Darknet. If before there were isolated offers, now there are dozens, writes @kommersant By the description it is a digital Hawala with the use of crypto, but it also can be fiat currency

kommersant.ru/doc/5682314
Essential to keep in mind that in some countries, Hawala is illegal (for instance, India) due to its informal nature and absence of regulation or oversight. It's widely used for money laundering
Russian firms look for brokers to set up intnl transactions in #Darknet. If before there were isolated offers, now there are dozens, writes @kommersant By the description it is a digital Hawala with the use of crypto, but it also can be fiat currency

kommersant.ru/doc/5682314

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More from @amenka

Oct 12
1/ The English version of my text for @CarnegieEndow: Why Are Russia’s Technocrats Silent on the War? based on several interviews with high-ranked #Russian officials came up. A thread about it 1-12

carnegieendowment.org/politika/88143
2/ The Russian Security Council meeting on February 21, just a few days before the invasion, showed that #Putin is the only person in the room who is allowed to make decisions. the rest need to support him undoubtedly or even anticipate his wishes.
3/ The new rules of the game don’t appear unreasonable to the technocrats; their professionalism is replaced by loyalty. There is no longer any need to be oriented by the public mood, nor by that among the ruling elites.
Read 12 tweets
Oct 11
У нас интересная дискуссия со @Stanovaya о Пригожине. Согласна со многими наблюдениями, однако считаю, что он все еще маргинал: мы достоверно не знаем как часто Пригожин встречается с Путиным, он как и Кадыров может создавать видимость этих встреч 👇
возможно, Пригожин может позвонить руководителю администрации президента Антону Вайно, но не факт, что Вайно подорвется выполнять пригожинскую просьбу. Его роль в назначении Суровикина в принципе минимальна - его назначение и методы обсуждались еще летом
у Пригожина по-прежнему нет "темы" - сколько-нибудь значимых активов, чтобы считаться "уважаемым человеком" среди российской элиты. его СМИ - медиапомойки без влияния, нефть в Сирии незначительна, а ЧВК в мирное время тоже так себе актив.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 25
THREAD
1/ #Russia’s reasons to agree #grain deal and deblock ports in #Ukraine:
1. Exemptions from sanctions for Putin’s cronies banks and billions $ from food exports
2. Russia’s agricultural sector is crucially dependent on import

For @CarnegieEndow
carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight…
2/ Russia got $11bln from grain exports in 2021, $10 in 2010. It’s very important part of state revenues. This year a record harvest is expected (130 min tonnes), and correspondingly high profits. Beneficiaries of the largest agricultural holdings are close to the #Kremlin
3/ Dmitry Patrushev, the Minister of Agriculture, is the eldest son of the secretary of the Security Council. The owners of Demetra-Holding (second largest exporter of grain) are VTB and the Marathon Group of Alexander Vinokurov, son-in-law of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov etc
Read 7 tweets

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