Thread by @WilliamYang120

As results seem largely settled in #Taiwan's local election, here are a few thoughts: the results match the pre-vote-counting predictions pretty well, with the main opposition party @kuomintang secured a sweeping win across the island while the ruling party DPP ...

... suffered a widespread defeat by only holding onto two cities and possibly two counties in the south. This is a reflection that the KMT still maintains considerable influence at the local level, as they have proven competitive in some tight races while being dominant ...

... in their strongholds. All of their incumbents in this election are re-elected.

The DPP clearly has failed to construct a clear plan to pass the torches in some cities where they have managed to rule over the last eight years, and some pre-election scandals have proven to be the decisive factors to cost them those key races, especially in Taoyuan City.

As with past local elections, the outcome of this election shouldn't be treated as any clear indicator of how voters will vote in the presidential election, as factors determining where votes flow will be completely different in a bit more than a year's time.

However, the election result does offer some important clues regarding how the political landscape might be shaped for the 2024 presidential election. First and foremost, like what happened in 2018 following a similar sweeping defeat across #Taiwan, ...

... the DPP will likely see an internal reshuffling, with the president @iingwen, who is also currently the party chair, potentially having to pay the price for this defeat. Whether that means she will step down from the party chair role or not remains to be seen, ...

... but this could be the moment of passing that party chairperson baton to the candidate who will likely succeed her in the 2024 election for the ruling party.

As for the KMT, while they celebrate this sweeping win across #Taiwan, they will have to face and prepare a set of more effective strategies to tackling trickier issues involving #China, cross-Strait relations and Taiwan's sovereignty in the 2024 presidential election.

The most difficult part of the transition from this election into the preparation for the 2024 presidential election will be how they channel the local-level influence that they displayed in this election into support at the national level.

That will require the party and their possible candidates for the 2024 election to come up with a set of principles on tricky issues involving China and Taiwan's sovereignty that can convince voters. They will likely find that to be an extremely challenging task for them.

Another area to pay attention to is the likely moves that @KP_Taipei, the outgoing Taipei Mayor and chairperson of the Taiwan People's Party, and Terry Gou, the tech-billionaire, will make following the victory of Kao Hong-An from the TPP. Kao's victory may ...

... give Ko more insight into his chances in the 2024 presidential election.

Also, with this sweeping victory, it'll be important to watch whether KMT chairperson Eric Chu can use it as a way to convince party members that he is the best candidate for them in 2024. However, one tricky element will obviously be his personal and the party's ...

... positions on China, cross-Strait, and Taiwan sovereignty. But when those factors are included, I think most of the frontrunners for the KMT in 2024 will face the same obstacles.

Despite the messy war of words and over-emphasis on candidates' academic track records prior to the election, the smooth electoral process and the classy moves by those who fail to win the election to concede defeat and congratulate their opponents show the strength of ...

... #Taiwan's democracy. At a time when some countries are facing the issue of defeated candidates refusing the concede and trying to challenge election results, this is something that I think Taiwan has done pretty well on.

While this is not to say that Taiwan's democratic process is perfect, as it is totally far from that, it is important to highlight the peaceful transition of power and the smooth execution of every election without major obstruction or chaos.

With the conclusion of this local election, #Taiwan may experience a period of internal adjustment for each party, but we will soon head into the 2024 presidential election cycle in a few months.

That cycle will undoubtedly matter more to the region and the world. It will be an important moment as after eight years in power, current president @iingwen will have to step down, and right now, who will succeed her remains a big question mark.

The style of leadership, the policy platforms and different countries' views on the frontrunners will create some shifts in the regional and even global dynamics. #China and the US will definitely be paying very close attention to who emerges from each party to run in 2024.

Even though the strategy of "Resist China and Defend Taiwan" has clearly failed to help the DPP in this local election, we should totally expect that slogan to be very central and core to the party's campaign for 2024.

Debates, discussions and public comments made by presidential and legislative candidates will also focus a lot on where they stand on #Taiwan's sovereignty, how they will help strengthen and defend Taiwan's national security and democracy, and their views and ...

... positions on cross-Strait relations and #China. Another important point to also watch is how those that might emerge to run in 2024 will position themselves on the issue of Taiwan's international visibility and its relationship with important allies like the US, Japan etc.

One thing that has been clear over the last 6 years under Tsai is that she has been able to deepen Taiwan's relationship with key allies, especially the United States and Japan, while helping to really increase Taiwan's international visibility.

Whether this trend can be continued will depend on the direction of the foreign policy of the next Taiwanese president and the upcoming campaign season will give us some clues about where each frontrunner stands on that.

All in all, #Taiwan's democracy remains very functional, vibrant, and flourishing following today's local election, and I think the upcoming presidential election cycle will prove to be another fierce battle for all parties, as a brand new leader will undoubtedly emerge from it.