3½ months ago I wrote about the systems collapse of the #ВсРФ🇷🇺 in #Ukraine. We are now, faster than I envisioned, in a stage where we see the "indirect-delayed effects" of #ЗСУ🇺🇦 actions producing an effect squared (effect²) on the battlefield.
1/x
1/x
https://twitter.com/jamesmashiri/status/1557691699954057218
Looking at the combat losses of late, we see a high manpower-2-equipment ratio, signaling that #Russia has lost its capability to field & operate heavy equipment. The high manpower losses signal an inability to protect, regroup or withdraw own forces.
2/x
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1596056632785604608?s=20&t=S5SQRr4iTAqsE7m8vtrXMQ
2/x
The debate regarding the combat capability of 🇷🇺 is "academic". With neither power nor will to protect units, unsufficient personal kits to maintain combat readiness in winter, and a loss of morale and the restraints enforcing combat duty, the #Russia'n forces are lost.
3/x
3/x
Manpower calculations do not matter at this stage. Ten Russian soldiers with near-zero capability have zero combat value. The main question is how #ЗСУ🇺🇦 can capitalize on this advantage, and what aid for this is needed.
4/x
4/x
The state of the Russian system, that needs to be accelerated is the current cascading failure, where the delays between observation, perception, and reaction and interactions between parts of the system are too large to support decisions affecting current situations.
5/x
5/x
By leveraging high mobility and firepower on a battalion level Ukraine could very quickly gain ground, even if combat ops were limited by weather/terrain. A "winter lull" would not enhance the #Russia'n position, but it would certainly lose the momentum that #ЗСУ🇺🇦 has.
6/x
6/x
The 🇷🇺 strikes on infrastructure affecting civilians does not affect #ЗСУ🇺🇦. Combat capability & sustainability remains high. Hundreds of civilians dying bc lack of electricity won't sway #Ukraine.
In fact, a larger number of #ВсРФ soldiers will probably die of hypothermia.
7/x
In fact, a larger number of #ВсРФ soldiers will probably die of hypothermia.
7/x
Intelligence still rules. In addition to mobility&firepower Ukraine needs knowledge of obstacles + the equipment to clear the path for a quick advance. The Winter IS NOT working in #Russia's favor…
8/x
8/x
Actually General Winter is increasing the combat value gap between Russian troops – freezing in dugouts, and Ukraine's well-equipped soldiers with a will to do.
We're not taking zero value, but negative values, with Russians turning on each other and betraying their army.
9/x
We're not taking zero value, but negative values, with Russians turning on each other and betraying their army.
9/x
With the war hitting economic growth & comfort in the West, expect increased pressure for negotiating a way out. This thinking is flawed. There will be no way back or a new normal. #Russia MUST lose – totally and utterly – to be able to rebuild as a nation of stability.
10/x
10/x
Before that comes absolute stability for #Ukraine and the West. That will be a zero-sum game for years to come. Our stability means less stability for #Russia.
Russia has played this game for decades. Now the West must play it as well.
This is the way.
11/11
Russia has played this game for decades. Now the West must play it as well.
This is the way.
11/11
@threadreaderapp unroll
Слава Україні! 🇺🇦
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