Thread by @Volodymyr_D_

In 9 months, Russia has already spent a quarter of its annual budget on the war, but the needs of the war will only grow 1/20
#RussiaIsLosing #RussiaUkraineWar #RussianArmy #UkraineUnderAttack @HelloMrBond

2/20 Russia's direct military costs for the 9 months of the war, are about $82 bln. This estimate includes direct costs that are necessary to support military operations. The estimate does not include others defense spending or economic losses forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine…

3/20 In 2021, all budget revenues of Russia amounted to $340 billion. That is, the Russian Federation has already spent a quarter of last year's revenues on the war against Ukraine.

4/20 For comparison, the USA spent about 3% of its budget on the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. And all US aid to Ukraine in 2022 is 0.8% of the US federal budget.

5/20 But if in the spring, such expenses could look acceptable, considering that the EU alone paid about 1 billion euros per day for oil and gas to Russia. Now the situation is different.

6/ The income of the federal budget of the Russian Federation from the export of oil and gas is decreasing. Russia has already lost a large part of the European gas market, after the suspension of supplies through the Nord Stream. Sanctions on Russian oil will begin in December.

7/20 War requires more money. Now the cost of war expenses for the Russian Federation doubled. Russia is increasing the size of its army. The war needs at least $10 billion a month.

8/20 300K mobilized will cost the budget of the Russian Federation an additional $1.8 bill per month ($200*30*300K). In addition, it is necessary to increase the costs of support. Approximately $10K per mobilized (body armor, helmet, equipment, warm clothes, ammunition, etc.)

9/20 Also, in the last two months, the number of casualties among the Russian military has increased sharply. This is also connected with the appearance of unprepared mobilized people at the front. More deaths means more costs to compensate the families of the dead.

10/20 If in the summer the amount of compensation to be paid to the dead and wounded is estimated at about $1 billion/month, then in November it is almost $3.5 billion.

11/20 Shells and missiles:
According to various estimates, Ru used between 10,000 and 50,000 shells per day in this war. The most intensive work of artillery occurred in May-July. But with the advent of HIMARS the intensity of the work of Ru artillery has noticeably decreased

12/20 The average price of a Soviet-caliber projectile is about $1,000. So, the Ru spent more than $5.5 billion on the provision of artillery alone. But, if previously it was ammunition manufactured in the RF, now possible deliveries from North Korea are being actively discussed

13/20 Obviously, Russia did not prepare for such a long war, and its stockpile of ammunition and production capabilities are not capable of meeting its own needs.

14/ A significant amount of equipment lost by the RF went to the ZSU in the form of trophies.
According to Oryx, UA soldiers managed to seize at least 2,000 pieces of heavy weapons.
The total value of military trophies is almost $2 billion, excluding light weapons and ammunition

15/20 Direct annual costs of Russia for the war in Ukraine may exceed $110 billion. This is more than the US spent on the war in Afghanistan and Iraq. But these are only direct costs of military operations.

16/20 Also, costs to support the economy, which suffers from sanctions, will increase and revenues from energy exports will decrease. Putin will have less and less resources for war next year. He will be forced to look into the pockets of ordinary Russians

17/20 If the majority of Russians now ignore the topic of war and do not express dissatisfaction. Then in 2023, war will become a problem for every Russian. And the vast majority will go from a state of disappointment to a state of dissatisfaction.

18/20 Yes, Putin's regime does not depend on elections. But to exist for a long time in conditions of mass discontent is dangerous even for a dictator. Putin needs at least some kind of victory. Perhaps he will swallow Belarus to reduce his frustration with the war in Ukraine.

19/20 And he will focus his efforts on holding the occupied territories long enough for the West to tire of the war and start putting pressure on Ukraine.

20/20 But in reality, Putin has far fewer resources than he might appear. Russia is unlikely to endure a full year of war without harsh consequences for the budget and the poorest Russians. Which are most dependent on government payments.