Thread by @douglewinenergy

#ERCOT Winter Seasonal Assessment is out. While ERCOT and @PUCTX disputed @FERC's October assessment that we would have a deficit of 18GW in extreme cold, ERCOT finds in an extreme event, we would be short 9-12GW which would result in lenghty outages. #txlege 1/

The biggest problem with the SARA report is they only account for three major problems:

- high demand
- high thermal outages
- low wind

They still don't account for gas supply disruption, which could make outages >9-12GW in the winter. This is not yet fixed. #txenergy 2/

Good to see ERCOT finally acknolwedge that extreme winter demand could reach 80GW. I still think that undershoots it a bit (@AndrewDessler & team think demand in Feb 2021 was 82GW) but is closer to reality than ERCOT has ever acknowledged before. 3/
ercot.com/files/docs/202…

Even though @FERC & NERC recommended we increase #energyefficiency, we have not done so in Texas. Resistance heat increases demand exponentially for every degree below 32 and we've done nothing to address that at all.

Nothing. #energytwitter #txlege 4/

https://twitter.com/douglewinenergy/status/1461011260368199686?s=20&t=Q1exBdUQY0Tf9T-n1Dzw3A

Do prepare. If we get another Uri, there almost certainly will be outages again.

It's right there in ERCOT's own report. @PUCTX and @ERCOT_ISO will try to spin this in their press conference but the red ink on the bottom line tells its own story.
#txlege #txenergy 5/

Note that ERCOT's worst case is a 9GW deficit but that far right colum is "high peak load" not "extreme peak load." If you put the extreme peak load in the right column you get a 12GW deficit. And they're still not acknowledging persistent problems w/ gas supply.
#txlege 6/

A storm similar to Uri would again wreak havoc on the state. It was always unrealistic to think this was going to be "fixed" in a year or two, but the lack of progress on several fronts, especially the demand side, is frustrating to say the least.
#Winteriscoming #txlege End/🧵