Doug Lewin Profile picture
Dec 2 12 tweets 7 min read
The Texas Senate dealt a major setback to the efforts of the PUC Chair & some generators attempting to redesign the #ERCOT market, telling them to hold off. The PUCT's biggest mistake? They never defined the problems they're trying to solve. 1/🧵
#txlege
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
Unfortunately, it seems that #txlege is repeating that mistake. I think there are three major problems we need to solve: (1) prolonged extreme winter storms (2) hot summer evenings & (3) cost.

*There is no one thing that will solve all of these problems*
utilitydive.com/news/texas-law…
We need to identify & diagnose the problem correctly. Acc'g to @FERC & @NERC_Official, during Uri, Texas had massive demand (spiked by inefficient heat) & frozen gas supply & power plants (made catastrophic by lack of effective regulation). #txenergy 3/
So if policymakers want to prevent outages during long cold spells (as I hope they do), then they need stronger regulation to weatherize gas supply & power plants & they need to reduce demand through #energyefficiency. A targeted backup reserve is likely also needed. #txlege 4/
Some policymakers want to focus on summer evenings. Great! Then we need flexible resources like storage, #demandresponse, and/or fast ramping power plants. (Energy efficiency will reduce the amount you need.) Don't pick winners though: make those dispatchable resources compete.
And what about costs? Consumers are straining to pay historically high energy bills. Policymakers in charge haven't proposed any solutions to deal with this problem which threatens individual homeowners & renters as well as the state's economy. #txlege 6/
dallasnews.com/business/energ…
Building a lot of new gas power plants & requiring customers to pay for them will cause higher bills. If you want to lower bills, you need to integrate more renewables & increase #energyefficiency. The PUCT's consultant showed that high renewables reduced energy costs by 20%! Image
No one thing will solve any, much less all, of these problems. Unfortunately, some policymakers are trying to solve a different problem. They don't like renewables and want more gas plants. That won't solve any of the problems and will make #3 far worse. #txlege #energytwitter 8/
In fact, FERC & NERC noted higher than expected outages of gas plants and wrote: "This observation validates the concerns that NERC raised in the 2013 Long-Term Reliability Assessment on increased dependence on natural gas for electric power.” #txlege 9/
Get that? Gas plants are costly *and* don't necessarily increase reliability.

First, clearly define the problems. Then, diagnose the problems using experts (& not only industry stakeholders as #txlege keeps doing).

*Then* move to the solutions.
#txlege renewableenergyworld.com/solar/texas-gr…
Unfortunately, the PUCT and now #txlege seem to be doing this in inverse order. As the Senate calls for the PUC to not adopt a capacity market no matter the name—and they're right to do that—they should also tap the breaks & take time to define and diagnose the problems. #txlege
If you define the problem as dealing with (1) extreme extended winter storms and (2) hot summer nights while also (3) reducing energy costs, new natural gas plants don't make a lot of sense. There are many solutions that are both more effective and cost a lot less. #txlege End/🧵

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More from @douglewinenergy

Dec 5
The Senate weighed in on the grid & the @PUCTX's proposed market design changes last week. Today, the House State Affairs Cmte meets to ask questions of the PUC, #ERCOT, the Independent Market Monitor & industry. I'll tweet some highlights here. #txlege 1/
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
@PUCTX Livestream is here and the first panel has just started.
tlchouse.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…

Another good summary of the events of last week from @rtoinsider and @tkleckner1 here
rtoinsider.com/articles/31219…
Chair Lake starts by saying it was "misinformation" that extremes weren't included in the study. They in fact did not include Uri.

Here's the quote from the study: "The 1980-2019 sample does not include the extreme cold weather event caused by Winter Storm Uri in 2021... (cont.)
Read 89 tweets
Nov 29
#ERCOT Winter Seasonal Assessment is out. While ERCOT and @PUCTX disputed @FERC's October assessment that we would have a deficit of 18GW in extreme cold, ERCOT finds in an extreme event, we would be short 9-12GW which would result in lenghty outages. #txlege 1/
The biggest problem with the SARA report is they only account for three major problems:

- high demand
- high thermal outages
- low wind

They still don't account for gas supply disruption, which could make outages >9-12GW in the winter. This is not yet fixed. #txenergy 2/
Good to see ERCOT finally acknolwedge that extreme winter demand could reach 80GW. I still think that undershoots it a bit (@AndrewDessler & team think demand in Feb 2021 was 82GW) but is closer to reality than ERCOT has ever acknowledged before. 3/
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
Read 7 tweets
Nov 17
Big day at #txlege today. Hearing in Senate B&C focused on fixing the grid, proposed ERCOT market changes and in Sen Natural Resources on economic development programs (incl. for energy) and implementation of a bill that bans state investment in sustainable investors #txlege 1/🧵
Here's the first part of the agenda in Senate B&C. Mostly usual suspects. None of the panels will have represention for residential consumers, community groups, renewable energy, battery storage, academia, etc. #txlege #txenergy
You can see the hearings here:

senate.texas.gov/av-live.php
Read 74 tweets
Nov 16
Following up on yesterday's thread, and before the Senate meets tomorrow morning, a few more details on the $600,000 study the @PUCTX paid for which did not model a Uri-like storm. That's not the only problem with the study... #Txlege #energytwitter 1/
Let's look at some additional problems beyond what I had in my thread yesterday.

There was an innovative proposal put forward last year called Dispatchable Energy Credits, or DECs. E3 completely botched the modeling of DECs... (cont.) 2/
#energytwitter #txenergy
...which was proposed as low heat rate gas or 2-hour batteries. They modeled it only including 48-hour resources and unsurprisingly found it to be very expensive. @TXConsumer analysis by ICF modeled it the way it's supposed to work & found it would lower costs by $8b over 4 years
Read 13 tweets
Nov 15
The @PUCTX continues to neglect some of the best solutions for the grid and customers—like energy efficiency and a backstop reliability service—in favor of (acc’g to their own consultant) an untested, complicated mechanism that’ll take 3-4 years to implement. 1/🧵 #txlege
The biggest problem: @PUCTX still has not clearly defined what problem they’re trying to solve. That should be obvious, right? We need to make sure there are never any prolonged outages during a winter storm.

You would think so, but you would be wrong.
#energytwitter 2/
.@PUCTX hired @ethree_inc to find a way forward to increase reliability.

But the $600,000 taxpayer funded study “does not include the extreme cold weather event caused by Winter Storm Uri… Such analysis is beyond the scope of this study.” Really? Wasn't that the point?
3/
Read 14 tweets
Oct 20
FERC & NERC released their winter reliability assessment & it's not good for Texas. In a Uri-like event we would be short "by about 19.7GW," almost as much as Feb. 2021. To the suprise of few, the ERCOT grid still has major problems.
#txlege #txenergy 1/
ferc.gov/media/report-2…
"For extreme winter conditions, such as occurred during Winter Storm Uri, ERCOT indicates the need to allow for a resource derate of 11.5GW. This would reduce available resources to 64.3 GW for an extreme winter condition, which is below the extreme winter peak load of 84 GW...
"...by about 19.7 GW. During extreme winter conditions, while ERCOT can gain 1.6 GW of benefit from operational mitigations, this still leaves a shortfall of up to 18.1 GW. These above-normal winter peak load and outage conditions could result in the need to employ EEAs...
Read 7 tweets

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