A problem with arbitrarily dividing the market into discrete "cycles", based on arbitrary definitions of "bear markets", is it may leave you blind to the rest of it.
Not all 80% corrections are created equal.
Last 2 shown. See the difference in literally everything else?
2/
Why?
Because imo, this year+ #Bitcoin correction sits in an entirely different macro wave position from the last.
3/
Flip TOTAL2/BTC from the OP upside down.
Basically $BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance).
I believe we're seeing HTF redistribution.
Now, distribution and accumulation can be deceptively similar, where folks often mistake the "spring" for the last SOW.
Volume gives it away imo.
4/
Don't get me wrong, I expect #Bitcoin to move swiftly out of its correction.
A confirmed "breakdown" likely sends it to new "lows" sooner than most think.
Doesn't matter what you call the wedge.
Correction. "Bull" market.
It's a continuation pattern for me.
5/
But, on the balance of everything, I am expecting the #altcoin market to surprise many in 2023.
This market is more complicated than bear or bull.
END/
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1/
Will liquidity lead the way? I worked with @unchained to break my latest newsletter out from
the paywall and publish Bitcoin's Next Parabolic Move - a report where I analyze how global
liquidity and the business cycle are aligning in a way that has historically preceded major bull runs. 🧵
2/
When global central banks ease policy - whether through rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, or other instruments of quantitative easing - liquidity grows. That increase must flow somewhere,
and increasingly, it finds its way into scarce, high-beta assets like bitcoin.
3/
In Q1 2025, global liquidity began rising again after two years of compression. Central banks around the world have begun to turn dovish and financial conditions have been easing. This expansion is already showing up in risk assets. Bitcoin’s recent strength is tracking this inflection.