TechDev Profile picture
Dec 3 6 tweets 4 min read
In my opinion, there is a strong chance the majority is about to be caught offguard by this next #altcoin move.

I understand the common wisdom that $BTC leads, everything follows later.

At least for now, I am fading that consensus.

#Altcoin Cap / $BTC

Thread 🧵...

1/
A problem with arbitrarily dividing the market into discrete "cycles", based on arbitrary definitions of "bear markets", is it may leave you blind to the rest of it.

Not all 80% corrections are created equal.

Last 2 shown. See the difference in literally everything else?

2/
Why?

Because imo, this year+ #Bitcoin correction sits in an entirely different macro wave position from the last.

3/
Flip TOTAL2/BTC from the OP upside down.
Basically $BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance).

I believe we're seeing HTF redistribution.

Now, distribution and accumulation can be deceptively similar, where folks often mistake the "spring" for the last SOW.

Volume gives it away imo.

4/
Don't get me wrong, I expect #Bitcoin to move swiftly out of its correction.

A confirmed "breakdown" likely sends it to new "lows" sooner than most think.

Doesn't matter what you call the wedge.
Correction. "Bull" market.

It's a continuation pattern for me.

5/
But, on the balance of everything, I am expecting the #altcoin market to surprise many in 2023.

This market is more complicated than bear or bull.

END/

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More from @TechDev_52

Nov 26
12H $ETH Setup:

Trying to close 2nd green dot above trackline. If it does, long signal triggers. No entry until close confirmation. Will update on close.

Last two signals went 1.5% loss and 15% win.

Profitability = Keeping losses small and wins much larger Image
Dots and Trackline available exclusively in yearly Alpha Bundle.

Currently running a 25% sale on this package. Never seen them cheaper.

Email their account manager Jess at manage@tradingalpha.io if interested.

tradingalpha.io/?via=ac78c2
This "2 dot above/below trackline" strategy is valid on multiple timeframes.

See recent 5 year backtested 3D strategy on $BTC...
Read 6 tweets
Nov 23
I've always been a long-term investor.

Tried to add swing strategies, but failed.

After months of research, I've chosen a set of tools and approach.

BACKTEST:
$BTC, last 5 years
Compounded Gains: 1330x
Market During Same Time: 24x

Please read full thread... 🧵
1/ Image
.@ZeroHedge_ has spent an enormous amount of time building an impressive indicator set.

This strategy is based on the Dots and Trackline tools.

Timeframe: 3-Day

Here are the rules...

2/ Image
Again for the backtest results...

Asset: $BTC
Duration: Last 5 years

Compounded Gains: 1330x
Market During Same Period: 24x

Win Rate: 53%
23 wins, 12 losses, 8 break-evens
Avg Win PNL: 49%
Avg Loss PNL: -8%

3/
Read 11 tweets
Oct 28
Remains primary macro #Bitcoin idea, supported by weekly OBV.

Cycle Wave 3 consistently 3X longer than Wave 1.

Primary 3 of Cycle 3: 100-120K 2023
Primary 4 of Cycle 3: 25-45K 2024
Primary 5 of Cycle 3: 300-450K 2025

Guides trading plan and invalidation.

1/7
For those wondering:

(iv) of 3 of Cycle Wave 1 does not enter (i)
and
(iii) of 3 of Cycle Wave 1 is not the shortest minor

2/7
Massive uncertainty in global markets post-2023.

Top two theses for rest of decade are:

#1 - Similar view to @AdithiaKusno, "roaring 20s"

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jul 20
#Bitcoin and the True Strength Indicator.

Still maintain last impulse top was April 2021.

Still anticipate ATH before next halving.

1/4 Image
Now, no one indicator can reveal impulses/corrections on its own.

Not so simple. Price action and volume must be considered.

Declining volume, lack of 5 sub-waves to 69K, near-identical MA interactions and RSI structure to past year+ corrections are supporting factors.

2/4 Image
A correction is not just a correction.

Degree must be considered.

I maintain the last 15 months constitute a correction of the same degree as 2019-2020.

And is a lesser degree than 2018.

Which was a lesser degree than 2015.

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
May 31
Markets are interpreted with subjective labels.

Cycles, bear/bull market is one approach.

Over the last months, I've come to strongly prefer impulse/correction.

2014 was a correction. 2018 was a correction. And I believe we've been in one since 2021.

3 different degrees.

1/ Image
I was wrong to be mid-term bullish in the 60Ks.

I was wrong about how low this C leg was likely to go.

And I did not see $LUNA coming.

I am saddened to hear of the stories emerging from that disaster.

2/
Many have read the market far better than I since November. Props to them.

My primary mistakes include a poor understanding of wave structure for much of 2021, and lack of a diversified investment strategy.

3/
Read 16 tweets
Apr 14
I believe the market has been correcting for nearly a year.

And that at least one more primary-degree impulse is to come before a cycle-degree correction.

I have several reasons for this thesis and shared each.

Here's a 🧵for those who can't follow past the last tweet.

1/
2/

#BTC 100D MA retest + #altcoin structure parallel + $DXY top, all at the start of a Fed Funds Rate hike cycle

Read 9 tweets

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